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Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

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Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#261
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People rail against lockdowns and claim eradication isn’t possible for various reasons, yet when shown examples of where it has worked and the freedoms it has allowed somehow that is also not an option. If everyone did it, we would have a solution. What Victoria achieved looked an impossible task for a while there, and shows that a severe outbreak can be corrected. That’s an achievement that can’t be underestimated.…

> If everyone did it, we would have a solution. > Why anyone in Australia or NZ would want to travel internationally for anything other than absolutely essential travel is baffling to me "If it wasn't for other people, my plan would be perfect!"

> If it wasn't for other people, my plan would be perfect!

I laughed.

The plan is good, it belongs to Dr Ashley Bloomfield and The Ministry of Health here in NZ. I was using ‘we’ in a global sense, but unfortunately Bloomfield has no jurisdiction out there.

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#262
post #202
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lockdowns do not work Hi, Victoria, Australia here. Today, our state is at 24 days of zero community transmission of covid, managed largely via a small lockdown after a small outbreak from interstate. Before that small outbreak, we were up to 80-ish days of zero community transmission of covid, after a much much larger outbreak which was brought under control by a robust lockdown which began in March and continued…

> Today, our state is at 24 days of zero community transmission of covid, managed largely via a small lockdown after a small outbreak from interstate. Before that small outbreak, we were up to 80-ish days of zero community transmission of covid, after a much much larger outbreak which was brought under control by a robust lockdown which began in March and continued into December. Lockdowns work, if people obey them.…

> you had one of the longest lockdowns in the world (110 days)

If you want to be precise, there was one lockdown in April->May, and then the major one in July->November that we’ve been talking about. It was 112 days for that second lockdown, the severe one. (note that the exact restrictions changed over that period, but 112 days was the period for which there were any restrictions around when you were allowed to leave your home)

> spanning the fall, winter and spring

No, that would require around 270 days. The 112-day lockdown included the second half of winter and most of spring, but didn’t include any of Fall (which is March->May here in Australia, and also we call it Autumn).

The first (much less severe) lockdown did take place in part of Fall, though. But that wasn’t part of the 112 day period that you were talking about.

> and then it came back in the summer, and you had to do it again

It was a small handful of cases in a corner of the state and we just backed up one step in the scheduled reduction of restrictions to make sure things didn’t get out of control; it lasted about three weeks before the government was satisfied that it was contained and restrictions resumed easing.

It absolutely wasn’t a case of “do it all again”.

> And you're in an isolated island nation with almost no international travel.

Note that “almost no international travel” is because it was shut down by the government, to protect against the spread of Covid. That’s another option that’s available to other countries.

It might also interest you to know that we’re holding the Australian Open here in about a week, with folks arriving from all over the world. They’re apparently expecting to have 30,000 spectators attending per day, in person.

> Your story does not encourage me about the feasibility of the strategy you advocate -- it underscores how tenuous the situation actually is.

Oh, it’s absolutely tenuous. Absolutely. Everyone has to be working together for it to effectively bring cases down to zero, as has happened here in Australia and in New Zealand. One bad apple or one selfish person in the wrong place can undo the sacrifices of thousands of people who are doing the right thing.

But what’s the alternative? Just stand around and watch the corpses pile up? (3500 covid deaths yesterday in the USA, for example)

I would take the lockdown over that, personally. In fact, I did. And today, after the lockdown has ended, I went to work in an office. And I took public transport to get there.

0 locally acquired cases, for the 24th day in a row.

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The mRNA vaccines are obviously the gold standard, they're what you want, if you're in a position to pick. Why? There isn't any evidence that they're more effective than the J&J one.

The mRNA vaccines are 95%, J%J is 66%. The former number is confirmed by the FDA, while the latter is a press release (probably accurate, but they might be hiding something while would be used to make them look better). The J&J vaccine just isn't as good. It is good enough, but not as good. Of course it is possible that the difference is because a vaccine resistant strain is running around now and so J&J got unlucky…

> The mRNA vaccines are 95%, J%J is 66%.

I get that, but what makes you think that mRNA are any more effective than the J&J? You can’t just compare the numbers across trials. Just because 95% is bigger then 66% doesn’t make it more effective.

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#264
post #122

The mRNA vaccines are obviously the gold standard, they're what you want, if you're in a position to pick. The traditional vaccines, like this one and the Astra Zeneca one appear to be efficient at preventing hospitalization/death. That's great - it will ease the extreme load on the hospitals, and also reduce deaths greatly. What I'm concerned about is the long-term chronical diseases that's been reported ( https://w…

Didn’t novavax just prove they have the best efficacy with a safety profile that’s miles ahead of either moderna or Pfizer/biontech?

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#265
post #127
post #122

The mRNA vaccines are obviously the gold standard, they're what you want, if you're in a position to pick. The traditional vaccines, like this one and the Astra Zeneca one appear to be efficient at preventing hospitalization/death. That's great - it will ease the extreme load on the hospitals, and also reduce deaths greatly. What I'm concerned about is the long-term chronical diseases that's been reported ( https://w…

I originally thought the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was significantly behind the mRNA vaccines in efficacy. But then I learned that the Oxford trials PCR-tested every participant regularly, while the Pfizer and Moderna trials only tested participants that were showing symptoms. So there's a very real chance that behind that ~95% number the mRNA vaccines also had asymptomatic cases that were never discovered during tr…

One must also take into account the fact that when the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines were tested, the South African, U.K., and Brazilian variants didn’t exist. In the J&J trial they were dominant. As a result they are not comparable. The J&J vaccine had 0 cases of severe disease in the treatment arm and that really is the statistic one is looking for.[1]

[1] https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1355352505987854340

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is a false dichotomy. There are other options other than lockdown vs no lockdown. You can have a social safety net and pay people to stay home. But if you're insistent that these are the only two options, look at Sweden. Their economy suffered despite not locking down last year because guess what, it turns out people don't want to go out and risk dying. So if your economy is doing to have mass unemployment…

> You can have a social safety net and pay people to stay home. But if you're insistent that these are the only two options, look at Sweden. I think that first sentence sounds like a great strategy, and it's perfectly in line with what I suggested. Coincidentally, that's exactly what Sweden did as part of its strategy. So I'm not so sure how Sweden is an example of the opposite? > guess what, it turns out people don'…

I'll take a look at the data. But I don't think that big problem is suicides, it's people getting evicted and starving.

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#267
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize over 70m people in the US are obese right and another 100m are overweight? Known vulnerable groups include 170m people right there. I can't take your argument seriously.

And I bet you think the public health experts that sat by and watched 70m Americans get obese are just the people we should turn to now, don't you?

I think if you think the people who handle pandemics are the same people who handle dieting I have a bridge to sell you.

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#268
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I bet you think the public health experts that sat by and watched 70m Americans get obese are just the people we should turn to now, don't you?

I think if you think the people who handle pandemics are the same people who handle dieting I have a bridge to sell you.

Of course there are specific individuals that are focused on one or the other, but there are also specific individuals who span both concerns. Significant examples include the secretary of health and human services and the surgeon general, among other high level administrators, who ultimately decide who will be managing both problems.

If said leadership wanted people that would take the clear and simple steps needed to solve the obesity crisis to be in charge of that problem, then the obesity crisis would have been solved. The obesity crisis has not been solved, so we can only conclude that the leadership does not want the right people to be involved. Yet presumably we should also believe that said leadership has our best interests in mind now that there's a new virus going around, when they have already irrefutably demonstrated that they don't?

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#269
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the Russian and Chinese vaccines are "old school", right? It would be fun if the least trusted sources ended up being the more reliable ones.

No, Sputnik V is a Vector vaccine just like AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson. There are several ones in development in China which all seem to be based on more "old school" technologies. In terms of development they seem to be pretty far behind. As far as I know, none of the Russian or Chinese efforts have published serious data about safety and efficacy yet. According to publically available data, the vast majority o…

Thanks for the clarification!

Re: Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccine appears 66% effective in global trial

#270
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Sputnik V is a Vector vaccine just like AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson. There are several ones in development in China which all seem to be based on more "old school" technologies. In terms of development they seem to be pretty far behind. As far as I know, none of the Russian or Chinese efforts have published serious data about safety and efficacy yet. According to publically available data, the vast majority o…

Thanks for the clarification!

Someone said the j&j ones are also new tech as it’s only used in some rabies vaccines.

I think the sinovac one is the traditional one in the sense that it uses the same format as the measles vaccine I took a few months back.

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