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Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

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Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#621

Post by stcredzero »

cogman10 wrote: post #455
wolf550e wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The non-consensus outsiders who make progress have done the reading. They know what the consensus is, they know all the concepts and the jargon, and they disagree about something. Your post can be interpreted to mean "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge". That's anti-vax thinking and argument. That is not a way to make progress.

Pretty well captured by that old comedy sketch "The expert" [1] I dare say that most people here on HN have been hit by upper management telling them to do something stupid or impossible. I'd even wager that most have had them get defensive when you try to explain why doing X isn't a good idea. That's effectively what I see when someone criticizes "experts" broadly and generally. I've long accepted that there are man…

I certainly have tried to expand my personal understanding in general. However, what I've found is that by and large the experts actually know what they are talking about.

Right. It's the expert's blind spots that contain the best nuggets of value.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#622

Post by tux1968 »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #597
tompccs wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am so sick of this 'stay in your lane' attitude. Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality. You can almost set your watch to how often an outsider will analyse a situation from first principles and make money off the 'experts', especially in the stock market. You're welcome to your opinion but this appeal to authority is seriously wearing thin. Pretty…

There's an important difference between "stay in your lane" and "keep your mouth shut until you know what you're talking about".

Sometimes opening your mouth and saying the wrong thing is the quickest way to improve your understanding. Starting with an incorrect premise and then talking/arguing things out until your understanding comes more in line with reality is a pretty healthy tact. Essentially Agile development, just applied more broadly.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#624

Post by politician »

FabHK wrote: post #327
politician wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Security ownership is the killer app for blockchain.

No. Way too little throughput (unless we slow down trading considerably, which is a good idea in itself, IMHO).

Re: throughput, I think nanosecond resolution for trades is bad policy. 5 or 10 minute windows are better.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#625

Post by Paddywack »

wolf550e wrote: post #231
tompccs wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am so sick of this 'stay in your lane' attitude. Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality. You can almost set your watch to how often an outsider will analyse a situation from first principles and make money off the 'experts', especially in the stock market. You're welcome to your opinion but this appeal to authority is seriously wearing thin. Pretty…

The non-consensus outsiders who make progress have done the reading. They know what the consensus is, they know all the concepts and the jargon, and they disagree about something. Your post can be interpreted to mean "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge". That's anti-vax thinking and argument. That is not a way to make progress.

I would frame this on two axis: 1) outsider vs establishment 2) expert vs layperson

My opinion (see below for how I have defined these)

Outsider expert > establishment expert for public ally challenging and overturning norms

Any expert > layperson on the basic facts (ignoring statistical aberrations, of course)

“Outsider” being unconstrained by norms, not afraid to be cast out of a long established peer group

“Expert” has deep grasp of contemporary facts, second and third order consequences, puts in controls to remove cognitive biases, deep curiosity and healthy scepticism.

“Layperson” being someone who is probably intelligent, but grasps quickly onto unfamiliar concepts and data and makes heuristic calls based on limited data.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#626

Post by SilasX »

SirSavary wrote: post #287
jancsika wrote: post #121

A Moment in the Life of an HN Genius: 1. Reads a technical document outside their domain. 2. Feels dumb because they don't have a grasp on any of the concepts. 3. Too busy to use the very internet which some of them probably helped build to magically render learning materials to the screen in front of them at zero marginal cost. 4. Sees the word "manipulation" 5. Substitutes the laymen's definition of "manipulation"…

Seems like you struck a nerve. I'm impressed by how many people are replying to this, quoting your points, and then talking about those points as if they were addressed directly at them. When did HN become overrun by narcissists?

I don't think it's narcissism, I think it's the dynamic described in the SSC post, Weak Men Are Superweapons:

>>Alice said something along the lines of “I hate people who frivolously diagnose themselves with autism without knowing anything about the disorder. They should stop thinking they’re ‘so speshul’ and go see a competent doctor.”

>>Beth answered something along the lines of “I diagnosed myself with autism, but only after a lot of careful research. I don’t have the opportunity to go see a doctor. I think what you’re saying is overly strict and hurtful to many people with autism.”

>>Alice then proceeded to tell Beth she disagreed, in that special way only Tumblr users can. I believe the word “cunt” was used.

Alexander explains what's going on as:

>>Beth chose to stand up for the people who self- diagnosed autism without careful research. This wasn’t because she considered herself a member of that category. It was because she decided that self- diagnosed autistics were going to stand or fall as a group, and if Alice succeeded in pushing her “We should dislike careless self- diagnosees” angle, then the fact that she wasn’t careless wouldn’t save her.

>>Alice, for her part, didn’t bother bringing up that she never accused Beth of being careless, or that Beth had no stake in the matter. She saw no point in pretending that boxing in Beth and the other careful self- diagnosers in with the careless ones wasn’t her strategy all along.

https://www.slatestarcodexabridged.com/Weak-Men-Are-Superwea...

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#627

Post by dudeinjapan »

ditonal wrote: post #586
sailingparrot wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality No, it's just that it's not interesting when an expert is right about their domain expertise so we don't talk about it. The issue is people getting skewed by this and then inferring that it must mean, on average, that their outsider opinion is as valid as experts, but really, it's not.

If a physicists tells me something about how the solar system works, they don't have much reason to lie to me. If RobinHood tells me how clearing houses work, they have a huge reason to lie to me. Given what we say in cases like Enron, Bear Stearns, I am shocked and dismayed at the eagerness of Hacker News contributors to so readily accept whatever Robinhood tells them as 100% gospel. Where were all these experts on…

Maybe not apples-to-apples, but... I worked on Lehman's Tokyo electronic trading desk in 2008. When we went bankrupt, it wasn't our clients, or even the exchanges which stopped our trading. It was our clearing banks.

Interestingly, we weren't cutoff uniformly in all markets. NY desk was trading about 75% of regular volume for 4 days into the bankruptcy before someone (SEC?) told them to knock it off.

There's a lot going on in Robinhood's back office and legal teams of which we are not aware. While I'm as pissed as anyone that they shutoff trading, I'm open to the idea that the shutoff was for far more mundane reasons than collusion with Citadel and Point 72.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#628

Post by lioeters »

glitchc wrote: post #546
mcguire wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Engineers, in particular, have a reputation for being experts on everything.

perceived :D

I think "self-perceived expert" fits well.

"When Knowledge Knows No Bounds: Self-Perceived Expertise Predicts Claims of Impossible Knowledge" - Stav Atir, Emily Rosenzweig, David Dunning

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/095679761558819...

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#629

Post by kchr »

whimsicalism wrote: post #430
hatsunearu wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a CNBC post about Citron and Melvin closing shorts but it was retracted.

No, it wasn't. Melvin has definitely closed, although Citron may still be in partially. Why are so many people repeating the same misleading talking points over and over?

> Melvin has definitely closed, although Citron may still be in partially.

Source?

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#630

Post by ta1234567890 »

hrktb wrote: post #266
kodah wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I think smart people just do this. When I got sick with COVID I cannot begin to describe the number of people who became doctors during this unprecedented time , only to send me outdated comments, articles, and speculation. All of these people thought they were smarter than the instruction I received from a real doctor, nurse practitioner, and the CDC. These were smart people, though, and mostly (but not…

I agree in principle. Then in real life example you will have real doctors and nurses giving conflicting advices and having wildly different viewpoints on the details. The easy to point to example is how a lot of doctors viewed masks at the beginning of the pandemic. Or how trickle down economics is also endorsed by experts. Or experts opinions on mental health drugs. And so many other subjects where it won’t be hard…

> Then in real life example you will have real doctors and nurses giving conflicting advices and having wildly different viewpoints on the details.

Exactly. Real life example - someone I know asked her doctor about getting the Moderna covid vaccine while pregnant. The doctor not only said it was ok, but also verbally recommended it and gave her a written paper to help her get the vaccine. She was able to get it a couple days ago. Then yesterday the World Health Organization announced that pregnant women should not be getting the Moderna vaccine because they were not included in the trials.

So who’s right here? It’s hard to trust a “real doctor” when something like this happens.

It also happens that, doctors in particular, barely see you for 5-15min, that is not enough time for them to fully understand what is going on with you and your whole history. It’s only enough time for them to make a quick judgement based on their pattern matching abilities from their own experience and then give, an educated, recommendation. But they are not really vested in you in particular, you are just one more, and if their recommendations don’t work for you, they usually don’t really care and won’t go down the rabbit whole with you, at the most they’ll just refer you to someone else.

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