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Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

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Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#601

A Moment in the Life of an HN Genius: 1. Reads a technical document outside their domain. 2. Feels dumb because they don't have a grasp on any of the concepts. 3. Too busy to use the very internet which some of them probably helped build to magically render learning materials to the screen in front of them at zero marginal cost. 4. Sees the word "manipulation" 5. Substitutes the laymen's definition of "manipulation"…

I am so sick of this 'stay in your lane' attitude. Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality. You can almost set your watch to how often an outsider will analyse a situation from first principles and make money off the 'experts', especially in the stock market. You're welcome to your opinion but this appeal to authority is seriously wearing thin. Pretty…

Point #3 doesn't seem consistent with the idea that this is just a "stay in your lane" attitude. "Lurk before you leap" might be a better phrase. You've got to do at least a little homework before you can understand a technical topic well enough to make sense of what you're reading.

I am less familiar with finance, but I see this all the time when HN discusses legal matters. The conversation is almost pure noise, because it's dominated by people who have so little knowledge of the topic in question that they don't even recognize a term of art when they're seeing one. Which, in turn, engenders fundamental misunderstandings, and so the whole conversation ends up being a sort of large-scale trainer battle at the gym that specializes in strawman-type Pokémon.

Imagine if a discussion of programming were dominated by non-programmers who are seemingly willfully ignorant that, in the context, the word "functional" does not mean "designed to be practical and useful, rather than attractive."

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#603
post #266
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I think smart people just do this. When I got sick with COVID I cannot begin to describe the number of people who became doctors during this unprecedented time , only to send me outdated comments, articles, and speculation. All of these people thought they were smarter than the instruction I received from a real doctor, nurse practitioner, and the CDC. These were smart people, though, and mostly (but not…

I agree in principle. Then in real life example you will have real doctors and nurses giving conflicting advices and having wildly different viewpoints on the details. The easy to point to example is how a lot of doctors viewed masks at the beginning of the pandemic. Or how trickle down economics is also endorsed by experts. Or experts opinions on mental health drugs. And so many other subjects where it won’t be hard…

The problem, to me, isn't peoples curiosity or attempting to broaden their horizons. I think the outcomes of this are largely good; it encourages discerning people to exercise caution and makes for good light conversation. Where things get off the rails is when people believe their tentative research or association with a domain makes them authoritative in some sense.

I read the same waffling about masks you did, the information I read (since it was inconsistent) led me to believe that I should wear masks more than directed. I did this out of an abundance of caution because at the time early research eerily concluded that not much is known about the longer term effects of this virus, there was stark contrast in the symptoms various people had, and that there were layers to exercising prevention. I acted in a similar manner when I limited my social circle.

The difference in the way, I think, these people used much of the same information that I did is that it became authoritative to them. After they'd read enough articles straight from the CDC it made them feel qualified to interpret them. I'm reminded of one guy who demanded I get another PCR test before he hung out with me, even after I hadn't experienced a fever for 10+ days. For some context, when I got sick I came back negative on both tests I was given. I was later told my viral load was not high enough on those days, ironically these also happened to be some of the worst days of the virus. It was only after I lost taste and smell that the doctors realized I had COVID. My friend cited all the reading he had done as evidence that I just wouldn't accept his "perspective". When I asked the doctor about getting both PCR and an antibody test she responded, "Do you have an actual reason? We already knew you were sick." In reality, the time which I would've been contagious had long passed, yet my friend couldn't get it out of his mind that transmission was a possibility.

Another example is a friend whose brother had gotten COVID a few months back. His symptoms were certainly worse than mine. Where I didn't experience much trouble breathing, he did among other things. I went on a walk one day because it was one of the days in between being sick that I had some energy and wasn't overcome with brain fog. I shared that I was exhausted after this short walk and that I'd probably stave off a walk for a few days to see where I was at. She chastised me for going on a walk, explaining that her brother had been told not to exercise for three to six months, and that it seemed as if I was taking COVID as a joke. What I realized after googling this specific treatment plan is that it's usually given to people with some form of cardiomyopathy and other conditions (none of which I have.) I am now about 3 weeks removed from having COVID and I'm back to riding my bike, which is consistent with what my doctor told me. My doctor told me recovery has a lot of variables and I'll need to go at the pace that I'm comfortable with and listen to my body. Regular checkups should help to that end as well.

The theme among these people is when I tried to explain what doctors had told me and why I was going to stick to what they were saying (more generalized as drawing boundaries) I was met with harsh rejection. The key here is that authoritative sources were no longer respected. The fact of the matter is that doctors do take a bit to arrive at consensus and that can be frustrating to a public opinion that is waiting on them for their own sanity, but just because you landed on the correct conclusion a couple times (or even a more conservative solution that kept you equally safe) does not make you an authoritative source. So, I'm not going to tell people to stay in their own lane but you can't just go lecture people based on your own understanding. That's when you forget that all of this information you gather outside of your own domain is good for exercising caution and light conversation.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#604
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And their investors...this could (not will, could) end up being a fairly easy case for piercing Robinhood's corporate veil. Good on the SEC for stating they stand with retail investors, even if it ends up being hollow it sure is nice to hear them say it.

Absolutely not. On what theory? And on what grounds? There's no such thing as "a fairly easy case for piercing the corporate veil".

Lack of separation? If it turns out they did take any direction on this from anyone holding a short position in GME I would imagine RH is fully and completely screwed, as are their investors.

this is all hypothetical, which is why I used the word if. If they did what WSB is accussing them of, which I think is probably doubtful, RH is in really really big trouble...

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree that merit of arguments should be earned by the argument, but on HN there's an awful lot of bad arguments posited in terms of "I think it probably works THIS way based on how I imagined up the entire industry in my head" that then go on to try to make a "hoho those stupid industry insiders, they didn't see solution X" point on said completely imaginary model. IE, not very rigorous models being used ov…

> "I think it probably works THIS way based on how I imagined up the entire industry in my head" That's how every opinion anyone's ever had works. Everyone has a mental model, which they use to understand the world. If you have a problem with the specifics, address them. Otherwise, you are simply appealing to authority.

Of course. But there's a difference between studying or being involved in an industry to formulate your model and being confident in that, and being confident in pure conjecture. Mental models are great and they're really all we have to understand the world, but they should be based in some kind of observation.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality No, it's just that it's not interesting when an expert is right about their domain expertise so we don't talk about it. The issue is people getting skewed by this and then inferring that it must mean, on average, that their outsider opinion is as valid as experts, but really, it's not.

Of course, an outsider can't simply declare something to be true by dint of being an outsider. You need to reason it. Or, in the market, bet on it, and you'll see who wins out. But experts should be held to the same standard.

> an outsider can't simply declare something to be true by dint of being an outsider.

you must be new to the internet.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#607
post #578
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it's a reductionist argument that can apply to literally anything. Let's just delete all user discussions on the internet, and only allow PhD granted experts to discuss things on panels where they must provide primary sources for everything. Or you could simply point out when someone is wrong, and explain why, assuming you are an expert. Then we all learn.

I think it would be helpful if folk highlighted when they don't know an area and are not experts. I think this is a better way to do it because it is clear that the person is trying to learn rather than spouting nonsense. Also, it takes a lot of effort to correct people, and when emotions are high this is a painful process. The RH post was a great example of this. I've commented on some of the RH posts and got downvo…

Replying to myself to avoid edits.

The other reason that listening and not spouting fiction is a good idea is that it is a lot of effort correcting people d that effort could otherwise be spent elsewhere. Folk have good will, but there's a finite amount that shouldn't be wasted! Once that's run out they look to use their time effectively. Correcting you /again/ won't be up high on the list.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality No, it's just that it's not interesting when an expert is right about their domain expertise so we don't talk about it. The issue is people getting skewed by this and then inferring that it must mean, on average, that their outsider opinion is as valid as experts, but really, it's not.

If a physicists tells me something about how the solar system works, they don't have much reason to lie to me. If RobinHood tells me how clearing houses work, they have a huge reason to lie to me. Given what we say in cases like Enron, Bear Stearns, I am shocked and dismayed at the eagerness of Hacker News contributors to so readily accept whatever Robinhood tells them as 100% gospel. Where were all these experts on…

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Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#609
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you link to the papers that were available in March 2020 that showed that masks are effective? Use any definition of "mask" and "effective" you want, but preferably effective should include some concept of "prevents spread of respiratory disease". Covid is a serious illness. Far too many people have been told, and believe, that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as they put mask on. This is un…

There's been ongoing debate about the effectiveness of masks to prevent the spread of the influenza virus for years now. There were a lot of studies after the H1N1 pandemic since mask wearing was "recommended" but to my knowledge no state or federal mask mandate was put in place. Here's a paper from 2010 after the H1N1 pandemic. Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: a systematic review https://www.ca…

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