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Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

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Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#511
post #263
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a real doctor, nurse practitioner, and the CDC Sadly, many doctors and nurses are statistically illiterate. I know, because I (try to) teach them statistics. Remember, the Surgeon General of the CDC said that, "[masks] are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus," perhaps in some misguided belief that avoiding panicked mask-buying was more important than a mask-wearing public. [Sorry f…

Can you link to the papers that were available in March 2020 that showed that masks are effective? Use any definition of "mask" and "effective" you want, but preferably effective should include some concept of "prevents spread of respiratory disease". Covid is a serious illness. Far too many people have been told, and believe, that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as they put mask on. This is un…

There's been ongoing debate about the effectiveness of masks to prevent the spread of the influenza virus for years now. There were a lot of studies after the H1N1 pandemic since mask wearing was "recommended" but to my knowledge no state or federal mask mandate was put in place.

Here's a paper from 2010 after the H1N1 pandemic.

Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: a systematic review https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-inf...

Our review highlights the limited evidence base supporting the efficacy or effectiveness of face masks to reduce influenza virus transmission. An important concern when determining which public health interventions could be useful in mitigating local influenza virus epidemics, and which infection control procedures are necessary to prevent nosocomial transmission, is the mode of influenza virus transmission between people and in the environment.

The interesting thing is everything they recommend, we've adopted during COVID, including physical barriers and front line workers additional PPE equipment:

Physical barriers would be most effective in limiting short-distance transmission by direct or indirect contact and large droplet spread, while more comprehensive precautions would be required to prevent infection at longer distances via airborne spread of small (nuclei) droplet particles [19]. In healthcare settings, stringent precautions are recommended to protect against pathogens that are transmitted by the airborne route, including the use of N95-type respirators (which require fit testing), other personal protective equipment including gowns, gloves, head covers and face shields, and isolation of patients in negative-pressure rooms

There's five additional studies referenced in the MedPub doc: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20092668/

A current Danish study concluded masks don't reduce the spread of the virus:

Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

In this community-based, randomized controlled trial conducted in a setting where mask wearing was uncommon and was not among other recommended public health measures related to COVID-19, a recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, incident SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with no mask recommendation.

People are already debunking this Danish study but here's a CDC study showed even when people do wear masks, they were still getting sick:

Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with COVID-19 Among Symptomatic Adults ≥18 Years in 11 Outpatient Health Care Facilities — United States, July 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

In the 14 days before illness onset, 71% of case-patients and 74% of control participants reported always using cloth face coverings or other mask types when in public,” the report stated.

In addition, over 14 percent of the case-patients said they “often” wore a face covering and were still infected with the virus. The study also demonstrates that under 4 percent of the case-patients became sick with the virus even though they “never” wore a mask or face covering.

Personally I feel like masks aren't stopping the spread mainly because people either use one or two masks continually without cleaning them daily, or put them on dirty surfaces thinking its ok and then putting them back on, or simply not wearing them over their nose. Masks would probably be effective if people wore them properly and only used them once. Hoping 300 million people all follow those simple rules is a bit hopeful to say the least.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#512

A Moment in the Life of an HN Genius: 1. Reads a technical document outside their domain. 2. Feels dumb because they don't have a grasp on any of the concepts. 3. Too busy to use the very internet which some of them probably helped build to magically render learning materials to the screen in front of them at zero marginal cost. 4. Sees the word "manipulation" 5. Substitutes the laymen's definition of "manipulation"…

my favorite topics this gets applied to are physics and rocket science.

it's amazing how many HN physics comments start with "my theory"

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#513
post #75

There’s a long history of similar occurrences that follow along a common line: whatever appears to support individual investors will be the path taken by politicians and regulatory bodies. Right now it appears that the public wants to be able to trade on their terms because there is this narrative that the little guy is finally sticking it to the big bad hedge funds. In reality there is probably very little truth to…

The FOMO is palpable. There's a hurried rush of small investors hoping to turn their meagre savings into a big win, backed by the anxiety that if they don't try then they'll forever regret missing their one and only chance at a comfortable life. This sort of event would be less likely if America's wealth disparity weren't so grotesquely skewed.

That's not the sense I'm getting at all. Oh im sure there are those involved who fit the description. But for most, it isn't about making money at all. Its about financial warfare with "the man".

The overwhelming majority of examples I have seen so far are only concerned with causing hedges funds to collapse and to put brokers out of business, personal losses be damned.

And I see little reason to doubt this. Everyone knows Gamestop is a company with an obsolete business model, a bad reputation and little chance of turning things around. Everyone knows that there is little to no chance of making any money on holding. But $500 isn't a lot of money. 3 million people each putting $500 in to GME is. Obviously there are some who are putting in far more. Current market cap is $24 billion. Its coming from somewhere. I suspect once this is all over we will find that some major players got involved as well and put a lot of money into GME to topple their rivals. But that isn't the main narrative and most of the people buying in are doing so to make a statement.

This has started a discussion. A lot of people are getting a 101 education on how the stock market really works and they are learning just how little it actually has to do with real value and the economy. I predict there will be serious public pressure for regulatory reform. People are going to want to make shorting and high speed trading illegal.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#514
post #319
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you link to the papers that were available in March 2020 that showed that masks are effective? Use any definition of "mask" and "effective" you want, but preferably effective should include some concept of "prevents spread of respiratory disease". Covid is a serious illness. Far too many people have been told, and believe, that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as they put mask on. This is un…

> link to papers No, I can't. Can you link to papers that show flossing is effective? Probably not, but the mechanism is so obvious that essentially all dentists will tell you to floss. Further, mask-wearing was already a well-established practice in medical settings to prevent the spread of respiratory disease from practitioners to patients. > believe that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as th…

> flossing evidence

That was a thing a few years back: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/tossing-flossing-2016081...

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#515
post #319
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you link to the papers that were available in March 2020 that showed that masks are effective? Use any definition of "mask" and "effective" you want, but preferably effective should include some concept of "prevents spread of respiratory disease". Covid is a serious illness. Far too many people have been told, and believe, that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as they put mask on. This is un…

> link to papers No, I can't. Can you link to papers that show flossing is effective? Probably not, but the mechanism is so obvious that essentially all dentists will tell you to floss. Further, mask-wearing was already a well-established practice in medical settings to prevent the spread of respiratory disease from practitioners to patients. > believe that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as th…

And let's not forget WHO actively advising against travel restrictions.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-chie...

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#516
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you link to the papers that were available in March 2020 that showed that masks are effective? Use any definition of "mask" and "effective" you want, but preferably effective should include some concept of "prevents spread of respiratory disease". Covid is a serious illness. Far too many people have been told, and believe, that they can continue their normal day to day life so long as they put mask on. This is un…

This is a pandora's box. My recollection of the events is this: around March 2020, there were some links to somewhat shoddy studies of effectiveness of masks in case of other diseases, but the official statement was that masks were not proven to be effective - but that's because there was no randomized control trial performed to check mask effectiveness against SARS variants, and how could there be ? This spins off i…

> but that's because there was no randomized control trial performed to check mask effectiveness against SARS variants, and how could there be?

The argument was not "we can't do tests because this is new", the argument was "we've got dozens of studies across a range of settings and respiratory diseases (which we expect to act similarly to covid) and we struggle to see any benefit, until we drop the quality of the research down".

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am so sick of this 'stay in your lane' attitude. Time and time again, experts have been shown to have consensus opinions which are wildly off from reality. You can almost set your watch to how often an outsider will analyse a situation from first principles and make money off the 'experts', especially in the stock market. You're welcome to your opinion but this appeal to authority is seriously wearing thin. Pretty…

The non-consensus outsiders who make progress have done the reading. They know what the consensus is, they know all the concepts and the jargon, and they disagree about something. Your post can be interpreted to mean "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge". That's anti-vax thinking and argument. That is not a way to make progress.

Very well said, thank you. That was my objection, too. Outsider is a meaningful distinction in that they're still a domain expert (or something), just not inline with the standard.

What the OP comment was citing wasn't that. Rather, it was people like me - reading that document, not knowing the terms but assembling some form of self reinforced "knowledge".

There's a difference between very well informed outsiders which rival experts and random people. Thinking I know more about vaccines and the dangers than researchers, doctors, etc is moronic. I have no foundation to be making that decision, and beyond the obvious "free will" arguments, i shouldn't.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we don’t. We need to let people build their communities without tethering agency to outsiders who control the flow of imaginary capital. Pretending a value in a database is real ownership of something is insane and continues to lead humanity towards fascism to protect the oligopoly at the top of the meme pyramid. You’re selling an appeal to authority that is a complete mirage, only existing in your head because o…

People can seek capital from whomever they want. But it’s also true that outside capital is useful. If my community has lots of resources and no ideas about how to use them, then the world is better off if I take my resources and find an under-resourced entrepreneur in a less wealthy part of the world to invest in. That’s what capital represents.

...and then you have a bunch of money and resources, and your community has nothing because you took it all out. Then your community wants to redistribute the wealth (because they see how unfair the results were to them), you and your followers scream "COMMUNIST!" at them, and we wind up in a right-wing authoritarian situation instead.

That's what happens when capital runs amok.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine an alternative universe. WSB decides that shorting some company they hate is a good idea. But wait, it has already been shorted up to 99% by hedge funds! No more shorting allowed. SEC rules. Same backlash about a "rigged" system.

You are aware everyone else except retail was allowed to buy right? You are aware hedge funds did just that after doing wash sales to trigger stop losses. It was funny at one point bid ask spread was 120-5000

Yes that's what I'm saying. The same narrative ("wtf, they are allowed to short but I'm not") arises in my scenario.

Re: Statement of SEC Regarding Recent Market Volatility

#520
post #75

There’s a long history of similar occurrences that follow along a common line: whatever appears to support individual investors will be the path taken by politicians and regulatory bodies. Right now it appears that the public wants to be able to trade on their terms because there is this narrative that the little guy is finally sticking it to the big bad hedge funds. In reality there is probably very little truth to…

> there is this narrative that the little guy is finally sticking it to the big bad hedge funds. In reality there is probably very little truth to this. Which part has little truth to it? The big hedge funds are apparently losing money (billions!) on Gamestop, unless that's being mis-reported. Some of the "little guys" (reddit people) definitely were a part of the reason for that.

Two hedge funds isn’t “the big hedge funds”. A lot more people are going to make money not by taking the right position, but because they are the market, and they get paid whenever a ton of retail investors decide to come in and buy GME based on memes.
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