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The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

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51–60 of 126 posts

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#51

How do we jump to the conclusion of aliens with so little information? Why not God sent it?

If it comes flying in on an asteroid sized spaceship...what’s the difference?

"Asteroid-sized" in this case isn't all that big- 100m long is a similar size to the ISS, though it probably masses a lot more.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#52
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My concern is that we aren't going to get much more than what was said in the articles already. I think the beneficial outcome of all of this is that we can identify what to look for next time, and hopefully get funding to do that. I also wonder if, as our tracking tech gets better, it would be relatively cheap to land a bunch of sensors on these and have them go on a ride somewhere in space for much cheaper than lau…

If you can intercept an interstellar object to land something on it you can by definition also just launch the thing to the same trajectory. Unless your payload is advanced enough to use the mass of the object for something (fuel, radiation shielding, construction materials, etc.) there is not much benefit in landing on an interstellar object if you just want to launch an interstellar probe. Maybe actually if you wan…

If you had really good shock absorbers you could intercept at an orthogonal trajectory and have the impact knock you into the desired trajectory... not practical but fun to think about.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#53
post #13

How hard is it for people to just admit that we probably have inadequate evidence to reach a solid conclusion. This was the first object of its kind and we had very limited observations of it. From what I've read, none of the hypotheses regarding the measured acceleration (e.g. outgassing vs manufactured solar sail) can really be backed up in any substantial way. So it seems disengenuous to get into vitriolic argumen…

I think some of the vitriol comes around the discussion of whether or not we should develop a mission to go visit it.

There’s no chance of catching Oumuamua. It’s leaving the solar system at 26 km/s and it has a 3 year head start.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#54
post #37

Whatever the thing is, it's clearly an interesting object and the only sane response is to build a big rocket to go chase it. But we don't have our shit together civilizationally and have to wait (and hope) that there's a next one. This is one reason that I'm such a big fan of robot probes vs. human space flight. If your space program is about flinging tiny cameras into the remotest reaches of the solar system, it's…

It was already moving away too quickly once discovered, even if we there had been some kind of craft ready.

Presumably it's no longer accelerating though, so it doesn't really matter how fast it's going. I guess the thing is still going to be in our solar system for another 15 years or so, so a solar sail or any number of other options exist to launch something towards it.

https://i4is.org/what-we-do/technical/project-lyra/

https://www.wired.com/story/should-earthlings-chase-oumuamua...

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#55
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that in any way related?

Both imply that the military has scientific knowledge that the bulk of public research does not. (about events that are not directly caused by them)

It’s pretty well documented that intelligence agencies new about the novel coronavirus very early on, and we know the vaccines were completed very rapidly after the genomic information was published — so this argument is sort of off. The US appears to have had reasons for not rushing to vaccinate its military. China, by contrast, made the decision to vaccinate their troops a lot earlier.

In other words the military clearly does have early eyes on all sorts of situations - and their action or inaction on that info is a separate consideration.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#56

How hard is it for people to just admit that we probably have inadequate evidence to reach a solid conclusion. This was the first object of its kind and we had very limited observations of it. From what I've read, none of the hypotheses regarding the measured acceleration (e.g. outgassing vs manufactured solar sail) can really be backed up in any substantial way. So it seems disengenuous to get into vitriolic argumen…

Well, no, the arguments are still important whether or not we can reach a definitive conclusion, because they inform what "keep watching" means. If there is a stronger consensus that it's an outgassing comet, then money/time/resources will be invested in looking for evidence of that. Likewise, of the consensus is that it's a probe, those same resources will be invested differently.

This is actually Avi's argument for considering the probe hypothesis. He's not trying to prove it was a probe, he's making a case for investing resources into experiments that could detect probes and industrialized alien civilizations, as opposed to detecting new classes of comets.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#57
post #13

How hard is it for people to just admit that we probably have inadequate evidence to reach a solid conclusion. This was the first object of its kind and we had very limited observations of it. From what I've read, none of the hypotheses regarding the measured acceleration (e.g. outgassing vs manufactured solar sail) can really be backed up in any substantial way. So it seems disengenuous to get into vitriolic argumen…

I think some of the vitriol comes around the discussion of whether or not we should develop a mission to go visit it.

That's simply not practically possible. It's just going too fast. We would either have to build a really stupendously big rocket, or develop propulsion that is dramatically more efficient than anything ever done before.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#58
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think some of the vitriol comes around the discussion of whether or not we should develop a mission to go visit it.

There’s no chance of catching Oumuamua. It’s leaving the solar system at 26 km/s and it has a 3 year head start.

Today no. It's clearly possible but it's probably a 50 year objective between technology development and mission operations.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#59

I'm just saying, if I wanted to probe every solar system in the galaxy, I'd build a craft with extreme geometry that would fly very close to stars and accelerate for a gravity assist before flying toward the next target star. So it would look exactly like what we saw.

You would have to identify the star that Oumua is going to for that theory to work. Seems like it should be pretty easy to know if it's going to the nearest star (or coming from one), and it's not originated from or going to Alpha Centauri.

The next question is whether or not there is some other logical path that defines logical gravity assists to visit as many stars as possible - nothing like that has been put forward either.

Afaik, it's coming from so far away that we have no idea what star it previously visited.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#60
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My concern is that we aren't going to get much more than what was said in the articles already. I think the beneficial outcome of all of this is that we can identify what to look for next time, and hopefully get funding to do that. I also wonder if, as our tracking tech gets better, it would be relatively cheap to land a bunch of sensors on these and have them go on a ride somewhere in space for much cheaper than lau…

If you can intercept an interstellar object to land something on it you can by definition also just launch the thing to the same trajectory. Unless your payload is advanced enough to use the mass of the object for something (fuel, radiation shielding, construction materials, etc.) there is not much benefit in landing on an interstellar object if you just want to launch an interstellar probe. Maybe actually if you wan…

The other argument is mass - most of the sensor could bury itself in the mass for safety.

Yes on trajectory, but no on same trajectory, with same mass. Of course, this might be a moot point, because other than hiding from some radiation and micro-scoping impacts, as well as leaching resources (which we aren't really advanced enough to do), there is no benefit.

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