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The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

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Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#21

Post by willis936 »

avian wrote: post #12
willis936 wrote: post #9

Oumuamua raises some questions, but the one my mind keeps wandering to is “how common are these interstellar objects?” It poses a serious existential threat to us. We are a tiny target, but we have been able to observe these objects for a very short period of time. Unlike regular solar satellites, they are only visible for a very short period of time. Like comets, if one hit us it would end life on the planet. They d…

> We can estimate how many comets are out there with orbital mechanics models, but what about objects originating from outside the solar system? We can estimate the frequency and size of impacts, regardless of the origin of the impacting body, from observing craters on the Earth, moon and other planets. Those show that the "end of life" impacts are pretty rare - the conclusion that also follows from the fact that we'…

The solar system has an orbital period of 250k years. Nearby systems do not have the same orbital period. I’m not sure galaxies are considered stable to individual stellar systems.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#22

Post by detritus »

willis936 wrote: post #9

Oumuamua raises some questions, but the one my mind keeps wandering to is “how common are these interstellar objects?” It poses a serious existential threat to us. We are a tiny target, but we have been able to observe these objects for a very short period of time. Unlike regular solar satellites, they are only visible for a very short period of time. Like comets, if one hit us it would end life on the planet. They d…

> Like comets, if one hit us it would end life on the planet.

'Oumuamua is more of a 'city-killer' risk at its size than a comet such as Halley's, which would be more of the sort of range of size that could seriously screw up our day.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#23

Post by postalrat »

jamesdmiller wrote: post #18
postalrat wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The conspiracy theorist in my wants to believe that if the military thought it could be from an alien civilization they already have a mission to reach it and would do what they can to prevent any sort of public mission from reaching it.

By this logic, the military would have started vaccinating their troops for COVID by March 2020.

How is that in any way related?

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#25

Post by duxup »

postalrat wrote: post #15
eightails wrote: post #5

How hard is it for people to just admit that we probably have inadequate evidence to reach a solid conclusion. This was the first object of its kind and we had very limited observations of it. From what I've read, none of the hypotheses regarding the measured acceleration (e.g. outgassing vs manufactured solar sail) can really be backed up in any substantial way. So it seems disengenuous to get into vitriolic argumen…

Of course we need to keep watching. But at the same time why shouldn't we continue trying to understand what oumuamua is based on everything we know?

I don't think your statement and the person you responded to necessarily conflict.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#26

Post by hh3k0 »

ckozlowski wrote: post #4

I'd gotten the impression that Loeb isn't trying to convince the public and scientific community that it was an alien probe so much as is he trying to show it could have been. I think is agenda is to get the community looking for these things more often, perhaps out of some disappointment that if it had been an actual probe (a la "Rendezvous with Rama"), we'd already have missed it. Whether it's worth bending the sci…

> I'd gotten the impression that Loeb isn't trying to convince the public and scientific community that it was an alien probe so much as is he trying to show it could have been.

That was also my impression. A lot of scientists (rightfully) make fun of the dogmatic view that it must have been an alien probe, but fail to realize their view -- that it must have been _anything but_ an alien probe -- is just as dogmatic.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#27

Post by yoz-y »

postalrat wrote: post #23
jamesdmiller wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this logic, the military would have started vaccinating their troops for COVID by March 2020.

How is that in any way related?

Both imply that the military has scientific knowledge that the bulk of public research does not. (about events that are not directly caused by them)

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#28

Post by sandworm101 »

postalrat wrote: post #15
eightails wrote: post #5

How hard is it for people to just admit that we probably have inadequate evidence to reach a solid conclusion. This was the first object of its kind and we had very limited observations of it. From what I've read, none of the hypotheses regarding the measured acceleration (e.g. outgassing vs manufactured solar sail) can really be backed up in any substantial way. So it seems disengenuous to get into vitriolic argumen…

Of course we need to keep watching. But at the same time why shouldn't we continue trying to understand what oumuamua is based on everything we know?

>> to understand what oumuamua is based on everything we know?

Sure, but one should not make big decisions on so few data points. The data shows it as accelerating. Ok. I'm still not willing to say "alien civilizations exist and are using light sails" based on a handful of observations of a single object. One should hold off such monumental determinations until one has profound data available. So once any discussion moves from "it was accelerating" to "aliens are real", many serious scientists will just walk away. They will come back once there is a more appropriate data set for such discussions.

Re: The Uncensored Guide to ‘Oumuamua, Aliens, and That Harvard Astronomer

#30

Post by willis936 »

detritus wrote: post #22
willis936 wrote: post #9

Oumuamua raises some questions, but the one my mind keeps wandering to is “how common are these interstellar objects?” It poses a serious existential threat to us. We are a tiny target, but we have been able to observe these objects for a very short period of time. Unlike regular solar satellites, they are only visible for a very short period of time. Like comets, if one hit us it would end life on the planet. They d…

> Like comets, if one hit us it would end life on the planet. 'Oumuamua is more of a 'city-killer' risk at its size than a comet such as Halley's, which would be more of the sort of range of size that could seriously screw up our day.

True, Oumuamua itself would not have done Earth changing damage even in the worst case collision, but where there is one we have to ask “are there others?” and “how big are they?”

We have a pretty good idea of the asteroids and comets in stable orbits around the sun. We know with certainty we’re not going to be hit with a planet killer asteroid in the next hundred years because we track all of them.

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