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Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

blog.coinbase.com

91–100 of 222 posts

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#91

Given the hype, the most likely scenario is a > 2X price spike in the first few minutes of trading regardless of the initial market cap ($100B+?). For those of us who believe that, what is the best strategy for purchasing shares ? It's doubtful brokers will allow market orders the previous night since the ticker might not yet exist, and if one places a market order during the first few minutes the cynic in me predict…

If a SPAC is floated to do this retail investors might still have a chance

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#92

Given the hype, the most likely scenario is a > 2X price spike in the first few minutes of trading regardless of the initial market cap ($100B+?). For those of us who believe that, what is the best strategy for purchasing shares ? It's doubtful brokers will allow market orders the previous night since the ticker might not yet exist, and if one places a market order during the first few minutes the cynic in me predict…

I think generally you can place an order before the market opens, maybe even the day before, but that doesn't really give you any pricing power. It will still pop at the open and your order may not clear until it does. But that may still put you ahead of the Robinhood masses. Better option might be to try a pre-IPO trading platform like EquityZen.

From EquitZen's knowledge center:

"Shares that are the subject of investment through EquityZen are generally subject to a lock-up period of up to 180 days after the effectiveness of a company's IPO filing, during which time shareholders are restricted from selling their shares."[1]

The 180day lock-up period could EquityZen poorly suited for investors with a short time horizon.

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good free markets should be free. No government bailouts no problem.

...maybe if we have the one true Geiger Counter to call the debt jubilees

Are you familiar with the work of Michael Hudson? I just learned of "...and forgive them their debts" [0], and looking forward to reading it.

While I'm generally in favor of debt forgiveness for 2021 America, in his talks he's primarily described jubilees in the context of regime change: a new conquering emperor, or an aspiring revolutionary leader, cancels the debts to secure the loyalty of workers and soldiers, and the nobility has to acquiesce at the point of a sword.

What I can't figure out is how this could be done on a predictable timetable (as per the Biblical jubilee concept: every 7 or 50 years). In a conquest scenario, a lender might only withhold lending if the current power structure looked weak; but if debt forgiveness was institutionalized, why wouldn't they just cease all lending on Year 6 or Year 49? (Or, more likely: fold the probability of forgiveness into a usurious interest rate, so they collect the same income on average.)

As it stands, I think debt forgiveness can only be done as a one-time solution to gross inequality and/or social instability; and that institutional reform (to not need jubilees) has to be done upstream (such as public banking, Georgist land trusts, etc). But I'm very open to being convinced otherwise.

[0] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/42515482-and-forgive-the...

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#94
post #6

Obviously this was planned well in advance, but what a day to make this announcement.

How long until Coinbase blocks the buying of popular tickers too because powerful hedge funds tell them?

They have already paused trading during periods of high turmoil. When bcash was announced, for instance. I think that actually set their standard for "open the market in 'post only' mode for a period before actually starting trading".

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#95
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, I doubt it. It's much easier to sell shovels and still benefit whether the price goes up or down.

At the time a lot of gold was mined in California, the gold supply increased a lot as well. With Bitcoin the supply is algorithmically limited.

Well real world gold is also limited. The California mountains used to be rich with huge veins of gold and now while you can still find some in these places it is very rare compared to the 1800's.

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#96
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...maybe if we have the one true Geiger Counter to call the debt jubilees

Are you familiar with the work of Michael Hudson? I just learned of "...and forgive them their debts" [0], and looking forward to reading it. While I'm generally in favor of debt forgiveness for 2021 America, in his talks he's primarily described jubilees in the context of regime change: a new conquering emperor, or an aspiring revolutionary leader, cancels the debts to secure the loyalty of workers and soldiers, and…

I am aware-ish of that and (edit, forgot the "and") Graeber's book but haven't read either.

The Geiger counter randomized debt jubilee is a bit of a play on the scheduling problem.

I do agree debt jubilees only make sense as a emergency post-hoc fix. If you think about it, UBI + good confiscatory taxes at the margins is basically a nice smoothed amortized debt jubilee. That's much better.

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#97
post #91

Given the hype, the most likely scenario is a > 2X price spike in the first few minutes of trading regardless of the initial market cap ($100B+?). For those of us who believe that, what is the best strategy for purchasing shares ? It's doubtful brokers will allow market orders the previous night since the ticker might not yet exist, and if one places a market order during the first few minutes the cynic in me predict…

If a SPAC is floated to do this retail investors might still have a chance

The SPAC would have to convince Coinbase that it's in their interests to go public via reverse merger rather than direct listing. This seems pretty unlikely, given that they've already filed their S-1, announced the direct listing, and presumably have done all the paperwork related to being a public company.

There's a bit of an adverse-selection problem with SPACs: not only do they need to find an undervalued asset that the public markets will value for more than the acquisition price, they need to convince that asset that the SPAC adds value and can take them public easier than doing the process themselves would. Big tech companies like Coinbase, AirBnB, and Roblox have plenty of money to hire the lawyers, accountants, and investment bankers that going public themselves requires.

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#98
post #75

Given the hype, the most likely scenario is a > 2X price spike in the first few minutes of trading regardless of the initial market cap ($100B+?). For those of us who believe that, what is the best strategy for purchasing shares ? It's doubtful brokers will allow market orders the previous night since the ticker might not yet exist, and if one places a market order during the first few minutes the cynic in me predict…

This is always how it works. Institutionals always get first dibs (and the middle, and the last)

Well not necessarily... didn't google use a dutch auction 15 years ago?

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#99
post #75

Given the hype, the most likely scenario is a > 2X price spike in the first few minutes of trading regardless of the initial market cap ($100B+?). For those of us who believe that, what is the best strategy for purchasing shares ? It's doubtful brokers will allow market orders the previous night since the ticker might not yet exist, and if one places a market order during the first few minutes the cynic in me predict…

This is always how it works. Institutionals always get first dibs (and the middle, and the last)

Not with a direct listing.

Coinbase shares would be subject to an auction and the market for them will open at the price where supply meets demand.

Re: Coinbase announces proposed direct listing

#100
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, I doubt it. It's much easier to sell shovels and still benefit whether the price goes up or down.

At the time a lot of gold was mined in California, the gold supply increased a lot as well. With Bitcoin the supply is algorithmically limited.

Trading activity can still be high regardless of new supply, and that is what Coinbase is capitalizing on.
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