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GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

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Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#961
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of those shorts are exiting their positions, or already have, and taken their losses. They're the ones who can afford their losses. Perhaps there are some funds still holding out their end of the short war, but by the time this is all over... like over over... it will be retail traders selling inflated positions to other retail traders.

No, the short float is still hight. Old short have covered but new ones have replaced them

Wait?

Wouldn't new ones be shorts against the inflated prices?

It could easily be other retail investors shorting the reddit pump and dump.

I suppose as long as no one innocent is hurt, it doesn't really matter if some redditors and hedge funds are cleaned out. But it seems more and more likely that the only thing that will have been done here in the end is to enrich the market makers.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#962

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bank has an "asset" in their account that is the debt note from you. This asset has the value of the money you borrowed, plus interest, and it can be sold for that. One dollar just became two. (If it's a mortgage it's called a mortgage-backed security which the Federal Reserve will gladly take off your hands currently. The money they pay is created from nothing.)

That asset has associated risk vs cash that for the most part doesn’t. The risk being you don’t get the cash back. One dollar did not become two. If you sell the asset you get your cash back from whoever bought it, and it comes out of their account, again one dollar did not become two, unless it’s the Fed sure, they can create money. Shares aren’t created unless the company issues more right?

The risk is priced. That's the excess interest (above the risk-free rate) embedded in the asset value.

I should also add that it's not the case that the bank "no longer has" the money lent out. The bank doesn't actually move money from some depositor to the borrower. The bank credits the borrower's account with money created from nothing, and it feels comfortable doing so because there is the asset backing it. The Federal Reserve doesn't have to be directly involved at this stage. It allows banks to do this as long as capital requirements are satisfied.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#963
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going forward, how do you effectively manage the risk of one of your positions becoming a meme? Hide your position better. Put out fewer signals. Lobby to make trades secret.

Or, you know, don't short more than available float (or anywhere near it)

They're not going to stop doing that. It makes a lot of money when no one is scrutinizing them.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#964

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what they're trying to achieve here (AFAIK) is a short squeeze. The whole point of this move is that there's massive short interest in GME, and the WSB crew (and anyone else long on it) can take advantage of it until those positions are closed. After that, if people hang around, sure they'll likely lose money if they bought at the top, but until those big positions close, there's money to be made.

It does assume the short position is naked which might seem like the case but is not a confirmed fact as far as I understand the situation.

So from what I read, the shorts were (at least at one point) at 140% of the available float. If that's true (AFAIK) that means at least some were naked.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#965
post #902

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You obviously know nothing about the folks at wallstreetbets. It's not just a bunch of random people doing pump and dumps. Their methods and DD might be questionable at times but they base them on something and at times try to stick to that thesis.

Thesis in this case being “let’s protect GME from vultures and make some money on the side?” I have a hard time believing that is anything but PR. I’d hardly call the denizens of r/WSB altruistic. Sanctimonious, energetic, and smart? Absolutely. But they aren’t there because they want to empower the meek against the mighty. Having lived through a number of cryptocurrency boom/bust cycles I’ve seen first hand how ever…

> Having lived through a number of cryptocurrency boom/bust cycles

Strange statement. Everyone here has lived through the same, you aren't some special snowflake in this regard. Paying more attention than others to the daily price or memes means absolutely nothing in the end.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#966
post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the exact thing I have been trying to convince people of since this began. It started with a kernel of truth and a case to be made for a potential short squeeze but at some point along the way transitioned from a squeeze to a bubble with more and more chasing gains out of fomo and some ridiculous concocted story about the little guy vs the big bad Wall Street. This is further evident from the spillover effect…

It's literally impossible for it all to be retail money. What I think people are missing is that in about a month we'll find that "Wallstreetbets" and "retail" were also other fund managers like Ackman. This is not the first time one fund manager messed up with their short and got absolutely eaten up by other fund managers (see, famously, Herbalife where Ackman and Icahn were direct adversaries). Melvin Capital clear…

I don’t recall saying anything about retail money. There are many things at play- short squeezing, gamma squeezing, retail buying, trend based algo buying. Trying to attribute a move to any one thing is folly because it’s never one thing.

But, when you get mass hysteria around a certain asset class and frenzied buying with the expectation said asset will just keep going up without regard for the fair value (in this case heavily shorted stocks), that’s a bubble. Just because you’re a large institutional buyer doesn’t make you immune from participation.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#967
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great explanation. IMO the GameStop phenomenon is the result of the combination of democratization of trading through software (Robinhood no fee trading, doing it on your cellphone) + social media enabled mass scale online community building (around some previously fringe niche). Any area that is subject to this kind of combination of change could face similar situation where the old institutions guarding the area wo…

There is a third factor: a generation of investors who have never really lost money in the market.

>a generation of investors who ~~never really lost money in the market~~ never had money to burn in the market, and now want to use it to troll and rage. The only thing they've seen have any power, is now on full display on Wall Street.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#968

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what if retail investors start to make up a larger % of investors? Then the dominant philosophy is hype, popularity and trying to sell to a greater fool. This is already happening: retail investors are growing in number. Originally, when institutions were the major players, stock prices followed fundamentals because most ppl cared about the revenue, earnings and cash flow. But what happens when the demographics c…

How confident are you that they followed fundamentals in any original setting? "Fundamentals" is just a collection of metrics and patterns a certain class of investor believes in. Usually those with most money and thus, power. I think you have a rosier view of what drives most of our markets than what happens in reality. Look at the dot com bubbles. Look at how HFT firms make money by exploiting the tiniest of pricin…

No rosy view - hedge funds and algos follow momentum and copy each other as well. I actually agree with some of your points but was questioning OP. Sometimes I ask questions and present a counter-argument to understand another viewpoint better, not because it’s what I believe in.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#969

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Melvin and Citadel can BUY GME themselves to mitigate the risk." Melvin buying GME is not "mitigating," it's closing the short position. If you close your short position high, you got screwed and you lost money. They did close it recently... At a massive loss. "I firmly believe that the hedge funds that held GME short positions have bought into GME to mitigate their exposure. They likely bought in algorithmically us…

Citadel invested in Melvin this week on the cheap. Citadel is the main internalizer for Robinhood. I don’t think it changes much about your post but the connection between HFT and Melvin is public and directly financially relevant.

Oh, Citadel made money off of GME — but Melvin didn't. Melvin had to take investment in what I can only imagine were very unfavorable terms from Citadel because they were bleeding money so badly. Then they were fools and didn't close their short position immediately, and lost even more massive amounts of money. As a sidenote, I doubt Citadel's investment in Melvin is looking very good right now. (Since somehow Melvin seems to have not been bankrupted, maybe it will look better in a few years if Melvin recovers.)

I would also be fairly surprised if Citadel made, say, 1000% ROI on their total GME trades this week. Giant bull runs are fine for HFT, sure; everyone wins when stonks go up (except for shorts, who lose big time). But giant bull runs are generally better for buy-and-hold investors than for HFT, because the buy-and-hold investors weren't doing all the useless intermediate buying and selling that the HFTs were. If a stock goes up and to the right, the best (retrospective) move is to have invested all of your position early, not to have constantly invested a bit of it over time as it went up like HFTs do. Basically: GME's performance favored avid WSB investors who got in early, much more than it favored HFTs front-running Robinhood for pennies on every trade. To quote Matt Levine, "you don't need special evil HFT powers to see" GME going up, it was happening for weeks [1]. You didn't need HFT powers to see WSB posts about the squeeze, or about short interest being 130% of the float. If you were an avid WSB user, and you got in early, you really did take Melvin for a ride. Sure, Citadel did well too — but your returns would still probably blow theirs out of the water.

IMO, WSB won the biggest.

(I do worry about the retail traders who bought in late due to the hype; this rally doesn't seem sustainable.)

1: https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1354131836323196928

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#970
post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more like no one actually saw fire, but the back half of the theater snuck out and ran away because there were rumors of a fire. Authers saw this happening and had a chance to tell the people in the front of the theater that the whole back half had thought there was a fire and ran away, but he decided to just slink out the back and leave the front half to get burned. I'd be ashamed to call myself a journalist if…

What if the act of telling people in the front half caused a stampede, which trampled five people to death, knocked a candle over, and burned the whole theatre down? The thing about bank runs is that if everyone , everywhere thinks there's a bank run happening, this will actually cause the financial system to collapse. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. But if most people don't think a bank run is happening, then the s…

Rather like the recent runs on supermarkets. Everyone thought there would be a shortage of goods, and so they created one.
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