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Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

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Re: Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

#11

Post by eddyg »

perl4ever wrote: post #10
mapme wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, looks like it is easy to modify existing mRNA vaccines slightly and give booster shots >“Every time a new variant comes up we should be able to test whether or not [our vaccine] is effective,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told Bloomberg news. “Once we discover something that is not as effective, we will very, very quickly be able to produce a booster dose that will be a small variation to the current vaccine.” https:…

I remember reading somewhere a claim that the initial development of the (a?) mRNA vaccine was basically over a weekend; the testing and scaling to manufacture took the rest of the time.

True; it was ready in January. Proving it is safe definitely takes times.

> By the time the first American death was announced a month later, the vaccine had already been manufactured and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for the beginning of its Phase I clinical trial.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/moderna-covid-19-vac...

Re: Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

#12

Post by xiphias2 »

eddyg wrote: post #11
perl4ever wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember reading somewhere a claim that the initial development of the (a?) mRNA vaccine was basically over a weekend; the testing and scaling to manufacture took the rest of the time.

True; it was ready in January. Proving it is safe definitely takes times. > By the time the first American death was announced a month later, the vaccine had already been manufactured and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for the beginning of its Phase I clinical trial. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/moderna-covid-19-vac...

A big part of the safety concerns were about the lipid layer outside the mRNA triggering autoimmune reaction, which doesn't need to change, so changing only the mRNA data should be relatively safe.

Re: Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

#13

Post by Andaith »

mapme wrote: post #9
KLexpat wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think this could effectively render vaccines completely useless, if they have novel spike proteins that aren't targeted by the vaccines? Please forgive me if this is a stupid question, this is not my knowledge domain.

No, looks like it is easy to modify existing mRNA vaccines slightly and give booster shots >“Every time a new variant comes up we should be able to test whether or not [our vaccine] is effective,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told Bloomberg news. “Once we discover something that is not as effective, we will very, very quickly be able to produce a booster dose that will be a small variation to the current vaccine.” https:…

You then have to manufacture enough doses and distribute them. It's still a nightmare.

Re: Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

#14

Post by pcthrowaway »

KLexpat wrote: post #5
code4tee wrote: post #2

Summary: This is concerning because it may mean that people who were previously immune (had COVID) are no longer immune or a new strain is infecting people even though they had immunity to the original strain. Either of which, if true, would be bad. Data is preliminary but based on previous metrics on exposure and “immunity” we shouldn’t see so many people getting sick. Also possible this is another “super contagious…

Do you think this could effectively render vaccines completely useless, if they have novel spike proteins that aren't targeted by the vaccines? Please forgive me if this is a stupid question, this is not my knowledge domain.

Tack-on question: Even if a mutation can (re)infect people who have been vaccinated or previously had COVID, can we assume their immune response would at least be improved?

Re: Resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

#15

Post by rapjr9 »

code4tee wrote: post #4
gdubs wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven’t gotten a chance to dig in in-depth: how confident are they that the initial prevalence study was solid?

It’s based on a sample and extrapolated out so it’s entirely possible initial immunity was overestimated. Possibility for bias in the sampling of who was tested and such. Hopefully it’s just a statistical fluke but everyone is sort of on edge at this point watching for this starting to happen. It’s not really a question of if the virus will mutate to reinfect people again (or infect those vaccinated) but more of when…

Umm, so there are current news reports that poorer countries won't be able to get vaccinated until 2024. If the number of mutations is proportional to the number of people infected then even if the entire populations of wealthy countries are vaccinated, it seems like the chance of variants that evade the vaccines arising in outside populations is high. Herd immunity in wealthier countries would not protect them in that case.
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