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GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

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Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#621

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The second that the shorts have covered the price isn't going to drop to $90, it's going to drop back to $20 and most of the WSBers who were holding out for $2000 will lose their shirts. The shorts are going to lose, no doubt. But once they've lost, the stock price is probably $20. A lot of WSBers are going to be holding stock at that point, and possibly on margin. And that stock is going to be a crappy retail stock.…

I sold a GME call option with a strike price of $320 and expiration in July today for $200. A pump and dump by novices is easy money if you know how to play it. Everyone knows this is going to crash, the question is when?

Shit. You wrote a naked call on GME today? That’s insane. Even if you think you know what your doing. This is the steam roller. And you’re the guy picking up the penny in front of it.

But, the premiums can be pretty juicy.

Looking at the 29Jan 320 Call options, if you were good, and called today’s top. Then you could’ve wrote the call at 145. Then held it for 90 mins, when it bottomed out at 89. Netting you a cool $56 per contract.

If you wrote 1 contract on this play, then 56 x 1 x 100 = $5600.

So, $5600 of net profit in 90 minutes. If you’re lucky. It’s best to have a large war chest to play this strategy.

But, if you’re unlucky, then a short squeeze can even happen during normal trading hours, and it would probably wipe you out.

You can call the wrong top, and the spreads are so wide, that the loss is heavier to exit the position.

And if you ran this strategy yesterday, at a lower price point, and held it overnight, then you would’ve been wiped out this morning, when the stock spiked in overnight off-market trading. So it’s best to keep this strategy to a daytrade.

I don’t recommend this strategy to anyone. The odds of you consistently calling the top, correctly, all the time, is very low.

And the crazy phenomenon going on right now, is that the retail traders, are somewhat collectively operating like a hive mind. Whether they can really succeed to achieve their objective of hitting $1000/share, remains to be seen. But, I’m not going to challenge this one, at this time.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#622

> These points doubtless make me appear to be a complacent shill for the financial industry, talking down to the rubes. For the record, I’m still angry about the way workers were ripped off in Britain more than three decades ago, and about the way the little guy ended up bearing the brunt for the financial implosions of 2000 and 2008. But it looks horribly to me as though the same thing is going to happen again — and…

> The "little guy" refers to the Reddit traders that are making a killing right now, with the expectation that eventually the stock price will crash again. The reddit traders are only making a killing if they're selling these inflated positions. At some point somebody will be left holding the bag, odds are it will be a bunch of people from wallstreetbets and other retail investors that are late to the party. There's…

Can someone explain how we're supposed to believe WSB can move the market that much? I mean, it's up against hedge funds etc with literal billions and we're supposed to believe a bunch of people on Robinhood can go against those higher power and cause them some inconvenience?

The volume for GME today was like 89,734,235 vs an average of 24M . How does "retail" traders can keep the stock up 100% from the previous day for the second or third day running? And the stock went up 100% from close during after hours yesterday, and that is not retail traders.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#623

The part that's understated is that the short sellers engage in their own broadcasting - and no one ever REALLY knows whether to trust them. Citron Research and Muddy Waters and these others post, places like CNBC re-tweet, Bloomberg mentions it, etc. And that has a predictable effect, or an effect that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't know if the David and Goliath story that played out here (if it is even reall…

It wasn't David vs. Goliath. CNBC, Financial Times, WSJ, etc. can't tell you what it really was, because they're beholden to all these Wall Street types. They don't get stories unless their relationships are cordial.

This was arrogant idiot billionaires vs. autistic retards of the Internet, and the arrogant billionaires in this case (Melvin Capital) had the chance to walk away when they got their $2.75 billion capital injection. They could have closed their position out and taken a relatively moderate loss compared to the total destruction of the fund that they're going to be facing in two days.

The reason no one on CNBC is framing it that way, is because while Melvin Capital is the face of the short sellers, a lot of people piled on after Melvin Capital, but no one else piled on with the level of idiocy they did. So if you actually call it like it is, and remind everyone that a 139% short on a company is literally the most fucking retarded thing in finance ever, then you incur the wrath of a lot of wealthy people who are pieces of shit and will use their money as weapon.

The problem is, the arrogant idiot billionaires have been assfucking not only the American people, but a good portion of the world for so long, that they're not used to someone spitting in their face, so they doubled-down. Unfortunately for them, they forgot that when you go up against the Internet as a collective, you always... always lose. No one fights the Internet and wins.

And they're going to learn that this Friday.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#624
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who the hell has a pension any more?

I have a pension from my tech job. Almost all professional full-time jobs offer pensions. It might be in the form of a 401k in the US, but a 401k is just another kind of pension.

They're both forms of retirements savings, but a 401k is a totally different form of retirements savings from a pension.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#625
I think we're all reading way too much into this.

A couple of weeks ago I stumbled across some youtube or whatever that made me aware that Michael Burry was long in GameStop and I thought that was quite interesting. I don't normal follow much stock/fund news or current affairs and so I'm sure I'd be one of many that stumbled across this. I then think games are all something everyone can relate to and feel they understand and have a high degree of confidence in. Covid lockdowns mean that quite a few individuals have been spending less and may have some disposable income and so a sort of fall the leader lemmings investment run happened and then generates the hype and brings more a'la bitcoin a year or two ago.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#626

This is a great example of how the stock market is not about fundamentals, just like Bitcoin, it’s all about popularity and perception. In the end, people don’t care if the “stock is really worth” the price, they only care if themselves or someone else are willing to pay the price, nothing else really matters.

What are the "fundamentals" of bitcoin? The only varying metric it has is the denomination you measure it in. Whether that is Venezuelan Bolivars or USD. Everything else is set in stone.

The fundamentals of bitcoin are illegal drug deals and money laundering. We can argue over how much that's worth, given the volume of BTC, and difficulty of the necessary conversion back to currency that banks/landlords/cafes/etc will accept, but that's not zero.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#627

The part that's understated is that the short sellers engage in their own broadcasting - and no one ever REALLY knows whether to trust them. Citron Research and Muddy Waters and these others post, places like CNBC re-tweet, Bloomberg mentions it, etc. And that has a predictable effect, or an effect that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't know if the David and Goliath story that played out here (if it is even reall…

It wasn't David vs. Goliath. CNBC, Financial Times, WSJ, etc. can't tell you what it really was, because they're beholden to all these Wall Street types. They don't get stories unless their relationships are cordial. This was arrogant idiot billionaires vs. autistic retards of the Internet, and the arrogant billionaires in this case (Melvin Capital) had the chance to walk away when they got their $2.75 billion capita…

The assumption that this is a bunch of robin hood everyday-man sorts conspiring on Reddit seems incredibly naive.

The GameStop play (as with BBB, AMC, Express, etc) are classic pump and dumps, albeit with a short-squeeze magnifier (basically equal to a DDOS amplification). And if you really traced back to the origin, I highly doubt you're going to find some Joe Nobody -- you're going to find some very well financed, planned player.

GameStop is a doomed enterprise in an obsolete space (selling physical copies of games), so it was incredible seeing WSB spin fantastical tales of the marvelous future ahead for it.

Everyone else gets some intense FOMO that leads them to piss away their own money (you can't just buy options because options on hyper-volatile stocks price that in), and then a lot of people get burned. Everyone is running around talking about how everyone made millions from WSB tips or something, it's farce.

As is always the case, a tiny number of people benefit, and a huge number of people financed their return.

The whole story seems super dumb. And the SEC is likely paying very close attention.

Loads of people throughout this discussion have absolutely no clue what they're talking about. What a low information crowd this is.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#628
post #615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So basically like almost every other trade? No; most trades are traded because you expect when you're "left holding the bag" that bag will have money in it.

How do you know they don’t think that the GameStop bag will have money in it?

It's possible they think so, but if they think it'll have money in it, after it lost money six of the last seven quarters, I'm not sure what they're smoking.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#629
How does this differ from other populist manipulation via social media? We've seen this technique used repeatedly in many domains. IMHO, it looks obviously the same in many ways.

It's very effective and we should have anticipated that it would be used to move markets. I expect people on HN to recognize it. The question is, what will we do about it? It's tearing society apart and now it looks to damage our economy too.

It is well documented that authoritarian governments, including Russia and China, have invested heavily in these techniques. I don't know the source of the GameStop bubble, but if Russia/China didn't see the potential to attack U.S. society and financial markets before, they see it now and will use it.

The question is, what will we do? How do we maintain an open society, which is essential, and protect against this manipulation?

I think an essential part of the solution is the power of critical thinking and reason, the very foundations of the Enlightenment, and that the well-educated (not only them, but definitely them) have to take the lead in applying those skills, and start a social media movement in that direction. The people reading this should be leaders; unfortunately, I see them again and again allowing themselves to participate in mob psychology. The response to these events is particularly chilling. Where is the forum of intellect, knowledge and facts? Almost everything I see is misinformation and conspiracy theories.

Re: GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine

#630

This is a great example of how the stock market is not about fundamentals, just like Bitcoin, it’s all about popularity and perception. In the end, people don’t care if the “stock is really worth” the price, they only care if themselves or someone else are willing to pay the price, nothing else really matters.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

- Ben Graham

This mostly holds true depending on you define 'long run.'

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