Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio] • Hacker News Board

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#51

Post by systemvoltage » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:56 PM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #37

systemvoltage wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been following it for 7-8 years now. Lots great DDs that didn’t turn out as well. After sterilization (ignoring 99% of the nonsense comments), I just see more guess work than anything else. Before GME, there was RiteAid, we all know how that panned out.

So we can’t knock a community for throwing ideas out there. I’ve gotten ideas from WSB that have led me to other ideas. It’s an alright subreddit, but to disparage them as dumbasses is a little much (they do enough of that to themselves as is).

No doubt, there is some good stuff in there as well. A few DDs are very in-depth and surprisingly good. I don’t think the whole subreddit is like that.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#52

Post by dralley » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:57 PM UTC

in3d wrote: post #16

He didn’t have any answer as to the fate of new bag holders he created with his tweet. That was irresponsible. His plan to make hedge funds disclose their positions daily as some kind of a solution to overleverage makes no sense whatsoever. And he’s delusional about research skills of WSB posters as compared to Wall Street analysts.

I agree, it feels dishonest to start out by saying "where was that message in 2008?" and then within seconds "guess who was right about Tesla?".

By that logic, Wall Street was "right" for years, because housing prices just kept going up and up and up and up. This story didn't end yesterday, it's entirely possible that the Tesla shorts were "just premature" the same way that the people who started shorting the housing market in 2005 were premature (and took a beating during those years).

And the praise for /r/wallstreetbets seems a bit excessive considering that by his own admission, he only just learned about them a couple of days ago. I don't know how much time he's spent there but I'm not sure that his read on the place is especially accurate.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#53

Post by christophilus » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:58 PM UTC

Chamath has the best take I've heard on it.

The people in WSB do know they're playing a wildly risky game. They know it's wild. They know it's gambling. They know there will be bagholders. There were also plenty of savvy people on this early, understanding the bull case that Michael Burry pointed out and the potential for a short squeeze.

It was the hedge funds who went over 100% short who were foolish here, not the momentum trading WSB crowd who helped cause the squeeze.

The interviewer and just about everyone else I've heard are missing the squeeze part of this. Yes, GME isn't worth $20+ billion. But Volkswagen shouldn't have been the most valuable company in the world in 2008, but it was. Short squeezes are just part of the market. Good on WSB for piling in.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#54

Post by soperj » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:59 PM UTC

bostonsre wrote: post #36

ummonk wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the short interest continues to rise (I saw estimates > 200% of float) it is possible there will be very few people left holding the bag after most sell to shorters covering their positions.

The price will crash. No one knows when hype will die out and people will stop jumping on the bandwagon, but I'm sure those hedge funds that are covering their short positions aren't going to stick around for the fall.

Those hedge funds covering their short positions have already acknowledged their fall by covering. The whole point of the short is sticking around for the fall.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#55

Post by paulgb » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:59 PM UTC

superkuh wrote: post #42

in3d wrote: post #16

He didn’t have any answer as to the fate of new bag holders he created with his tweet. That was irresponsible. His plan to make hedge funds disclose their positions daily as some kind of a solution to overleverage makes no sense whatsoever. And he’s delusional about research skills of WSB posters as compared to Wall Street analysts.

>He didn’t have any answer as to fate of new bag holders he created with his tweet. Perhaps, but like his response to this question pointed out: neither did wallstreet when they left the US population as bag holders for all their damage in the past (ie, 2008). Additionally, the only people left being bag holders here so far are the hedge fund (and their copycats) taking such an absurd short position.

> Additionally, the only people left being bag holders here so far are the hedge fund

“So far” is carrying a lot of weight here.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#56

Post by daniel-thompson » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:59 PM UTC

bostonsre wrote: post #36

ummonk wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the short interest continues to rise (I saw estimates > 200% of float) it is possible there will be very few people left holding the bag after most sell to shorters covering their positions.

The price will crash. No one knows when hype will die out and people will stop jumping on the bandwagon, but I'm sure those hedge funds that are covering their short positions aren't going to stick around for the fall.

This makes no sense. The hedge funds that cover their shorts are the ones taking the fall; entering a short at $20 and exiting at $300 is the fall.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#57

Post by tmotwu » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 8:59 PM UTC

systemvoltage wrote: post #34

runawaybottle wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s really not a cesspool. Outside of the frenzy, they do a solid job (when things are quiet) of finding cheap stocks with a potential to move within a year. Even GME, before the phenomenon, the subreddit was mostly targeting 40 dollars around April earnings. The short squeeze was a real tactical play, but most people weren’t 100% on that as the main catalyst (as in, most people really thought the ps5/Xbox sales wou…

I’ve been following it for 7-8 years now. Lots great DDs that didn’t turn out as well. After sterilization (ignoring 99% of the nonsense comments), I just see more guess work than anything else. Before GME, there was RiteAid, we all know how that panned out.

Even Wall Street has losers, of course not every DD will touch gold. People in a forum like HN would ought to know Wall Street has been gamified for the longest time. People will gamble irregardless if they do so on the stock market or not. The people calculated enough to make money knows the sort of risk they are taking. The earth continues the spin - the only difference is that some retail investors having started taking note of what has been happening and are capitalizing on it. Chamath or Elon and their vested interests are irrelevant - backing democratization or individual investors isn't a bad thing.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#58

Post by na85 » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 9:00 PM UTC

in3d wrote: post #16

He didn’t have any answer as to the fate of new bag holders he created with his tweet. That was irresponsible. His plan to make hedge funds disclose their positions daily as some kind of a solution to overleverage makes no sense whatsoever. And he’s delusional about research skills of WSB posters as compared to Wall Street analysts.

>And he’s delusional about research skills of WSB posters as compared to Wall Street analysts.

Certainly there's a crowd on WSB that are just sheep, but there is a minority of WSB posters that produce quality research and analysis. The idea that Wall Street insiders are elite, a different breed, is mostly a myth. There are smart people working Wall St to be sure, but there are lots of smart people working elsewhere.

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#59

Post by throw_nbvc1234 » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

daniel-thompson wrote: post #56

bostonsre wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price will crash. No one knows when hype will die out and people will stop jumping on the bandwagon, but I'm sure those hedge funds that are covering their short positions aren't going to stick around for the fall.

This makes no sense. The hedge funds that cover their shorts are the ones taking the fall; entering a short at $20 and exiting at $300 is the fall.

Aren't there going to be multiple falls here. The one you mentioned and when the stock falls back to its "real" value?

Re: Chamath Palihapitiya on Wallstreetbets [audio]

#60

Post by hnburnsy » Wed, Jan 27, 2021, 9:02 PM UTC

Anyone remember Iomega and zip drives? This same thing happened iomega stock price which was driven up by Yahoo message boards/Motley Fool.

"At the close of trading Wednesday, Utah-based Iomega was worth more than Hershey Foods and had twice the market value of Apple Computer."

https://www.deseret.com/1996/5/23/19244215/fools-rush-in-sen...