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The Battle of GameStop

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Re: The Battle of GameStop

#251

Post by WA »

nromiun wrote: post #248

It's like everyone has forgotten the past meme stocks of /r/wsb. GME is not something out of the ordinary. They do this all the time. First someone will pick a stock to pump and if it rises some people win and some will be left holding the bag. Remember the SPY puts at the beginning of 2020? The Chinese coffee startup that got delisted? NKLA? How PLTR pump lost the energy?

I've been a member of WSB since January 2020 and this is not entirely accurate. If you look closely, it is unclear whether WSB is actually what drives a pump. Quite often, something happens, a stock gains insane valuations and WSB finds it after the fact and spins some narrative or tries to profit even more.

The SPY puts weren't at the beginning of 2020. I was actually one who took a huge profit from being early with SPY and DAX puts, but I also lost some money later on when SPY puts were still the rage.

The fascinating part is that you don't really know if WSB is actually the pumper. With smaller caps, that might be true to some extend. They banned mentioning of small caps with less than 1 billion in market capitalization a while ago for this reason.

WSB pumps and dumps: SPCE, LL

Certainly not: MSFT, SPY drop in Feb/March 2020, TSLA, AAPL

Probably not: HTZ

Unclear about the extend: GME, BB, PLTR

So, is WSB a driver of stock prices or is someone else driving the prices and blaming it on the "retards" on WSB? This happened in July/August 2020 with tech and one culprit was Softbank.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#252

Post by sokoloff »

piva00 wrote: post #214
throwaway894345 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument is that we’re working to keep a roof over our heads now because we YOLOed through college. And while that doesn’t describe me, I had a lot of peers who partied through college, skipped classes, hardly worked, majored in women’s studies / art history / literature / etc and still managed to live in the dorms, buy daily lattes, have the latest iPhones, etc.

> I had a lot of peers who partied through college, skipped classes, hardly worked, majored in women’s studies / art history / literature / etc and still managed to live in the dorms, buy daily lattes, have the latest iPhones, etc. That's what you get when your system is designed to give money easily to young people who don't understand the consequences of major financial debt. Blaming this on the individuals is leav…

The mortgage is also often able to be discharged by selling or giving back the house as it's a secured loan. No one is lining up to give a quarter-million dollars to an 18-year old who has no track record of paying back significant loans, no current income to backstop such a loan, and where there would be no repossessable collateral in the event of a default.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#253

Post by samjmck »

valzam wrote: post #233
samjmck wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as I make money too and my retirement account grows what do I care if they take some off the top? You should care because for long term investing, an actively managed fund is very likely to underperform the market. The vast majority of hedge fund managers aren't doing anything that you couldn't do yourself, i.e. pick a few stocks out of the S&P 500 and hope that they outperform the market. > The returns I g…

Quick note: There is also FTSE Developed World, which has outperformed All-World over the last few years AND has a lower TER than most All-World indeces. You can always hold 10% Emerging Markets + Developed World.

The FTSE All-World has returned 82.5% over the last 5 years, while the FTSE Developed has returned 82.9% [1]. The difference is neglible if you ask me, and 5 years isn't that long anyway. The fees depend on the ETF you buy - in Europe, the difference between ETFs tracking All-World and Developed is around 0.08%. The biggest difference is that the Developed index "only" has 2000 stocks instead of the 4000 of All-World.

Another issue in Europe is that the accumulating ETFs (more tax efficient in most countries) tracking the Developed index have low liquidity.

1. https://research.ftserussell.com/Analytics/Factsheets/Home/D...

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#254

Post by sokoloff »

willis936 wrote: post #97
throwaway894345 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument is that we’re working to keep a roof over our heads now because we YOLOed through college. And while that doesn’t describe me, I had a lot of peers who partied through college, skipped classes, hardly worked, majored in women’s studies / art history / literature / etc and still managed to live in the dorms, buy daily lattes, have the latest iPhones, etc.

>The argument is that we’re working to keep a roof over our heads now because we YOLOed through college. And while that doesn’t describe me Nor me. I worked throughout all of undergrad. My work paid for my grad degree. I have an MSEE and am looking at $50k of student debt. My income is such that I expect the only way my debt will go away in the next ten years is through PSLF. Owning a house before I’m 40? I’m not so…

You have an advanced degree in EE, paid for by work who valued that enough to pay for it, and don't expect to be able to clear $50K in student loans in 10 years.

Are you still working in a job requiring that degree, because if so, that does seem like you're getting shafted (especially compared to the equivalent on the CS side of EE/CS).

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#255

Post by PartiallyTyped »

thepasswordis wrote: post #35

>We can remain retarded longer than they can remain solvent. There is a tremendous amount of spite involved here. They hate the boomers, and they hate the institutional wallstreet investors and hedgies. And why shouldn't they? These people play with our lives and get fantastically wealthy by gambling with our retirement accounts. I saw that some hedge fund got wiped out today by this. Sorry I won't be shedding any te…

Yes it is out of spite. I am up >200% in January, with all of my life savings, and I am willing to lose everything so that they bleed and they lose everything. I have nothing to lose because I am used to living with nothing. I have but my chains to lose.

The '08 crisis was in part for a similar reason. Some hedge funds shorted housing stocks and crashed everything. We were at the risk of losing our home, my mother working for the gov was unemployed, she went to the private sector and they squeezed the life out of her.

They bring nothing useful back and play god without permission.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#256

Post by nromiun »

WA wrote: post #251
nromiun wrote: post #248

It's like everyone has forgotten the past meme stocks of /r/wsb. GME is not something out of the ordinary. They do this all the time. First someone will pick a stock to pump and if it rises some people win and some will be left holding the bag. Remember the SPY puts at the beginning of 2020? The Chinese coffee startup that got delisted? NKLA? How PLTR pump lost the energy?

I've been a member of WSB since January 2020 and this is not entirely accurate. If you look closely, it is unclear whether WSB is actually what drives a pump. Quite often, something happens, a stock gains insane valuations and WSB finds it after the fact and spins some narrative or tries to profit even more. The SPY puts weren't at the beginning of 2020. I was actually one who took a huge profit from being early with…

> The SPY puts weren't at the beginning of 2020.

That was just a rough estimation. I have been following them for the last few years and my point is that they don't always win. Before 2020 (where every stock market on earth started giving huge profits) they were mostly known for their losses. In fact the only WSB stock still worth buying is TSLA. Everything else is pumped, dumped and gone.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#257

Post by blackrock »

bitcoinmoney wrote: post #84
shouldiquitamzn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I made this money myself. In any time in basically the last decade, if you leveraged up on the SPY or QQQ, you are now retired. People are too risk averse, they will be stuck in a job forever

How do we replicate your success?

Make sure to buy the right stock, at the right time. And make sure to sell it at the top, also at the right time.

But in all seriousness, for the past 12 years, there has been no fundamentals. Why? Because the Fed juiced the market with Quantitative Easing. Thereby flooding the market with infinite money.

Literally, all you had to do was to buy and hold.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#258

Post by WA »

tempsy wrote: post #143
jeffbee wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK but this is not exactly risk-free. You are on the hook for the downside risk of whatever you own behind those calls. Selling covered calls comes with a lot of exposure.

it’s safer than just holding stock which is what 99% of people do...so how is that more exposure than your average long retirement account?

OT @ tempsy: I need to say thank you. I found WSB through a random comment of yours about Tesla/WSB in January 2020, read a lot about options, liquidated my portfolio in February, bought puts on SPX and DAX and made €400k after taxes in a few weeks.

It's kind of crazy that your random comment on HN lead me down this path. That's why I'm a reader of HN since 2008 or so – exposure to randomness ;)

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#259

Post by PartiallyTyped »

blackrock wrote: post #246
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Melvin Capital lost Billions last week alone. They needed to get bailed. You have been sold the narrative by the same people who screwed you in 2008. The bubble is the consequence of Hedge Funds getting greedy and repeatedly screwing a "dead company", by overshorting the shares. Don't take my word for it, take Louis Rossmann's, somebody known to stand for the little guy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EUbJcGoYQ4

I wonder if there is a systemic risk behind this. Kind of like, if one domino falls, then the rest will tumble.

This is partially what happened in 2008. Hedgefunds overshorted the housing market and then everything went down.

Re: The Battle of GameStop

#260

Post by WA »

nromiun wrote: post #256
WA wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been a member of WSB since January 2020 and this is not entirely accurate. If you look closely, it is unclear whether WSB is actually what drives a pump. Quite often, something happens, a stock gains insane valuations and WSB finds it after the fact and spins some narrative or tries to profit even more. The SPY puts weren't at the beginning of 2020. I was actually one who took a huge profit from being early with…

> The SPY puts weren't at the beginning of 2020. That was just a rough estimation. I have been following them for the last few years and my point is that they don't always win. Before 2020 (where every stock market on earth started giving huge profits) they were mostly known for their losses. In fact the only WSB stock still worth buying is TSLA. Everything else is pumped, dumped and gone.

Funny that you say this. TSLA is the mother of all pump and dumps, but it'll take a while for this to play out. Not driven by WSB of course.

But yeah, they don't always win for sure.

Still, there are a few gems in that sub if you know where to look imho. Do they have a crystal ball? Certainly not. But it's interesting for its different perspective.

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