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The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

jeromysonne.com

61–70 of 277 posts

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#61
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non sense.

> Non sense. Really great contribution there, appreciate you sharing your thoughts and furthering the conversation. What LogicSlave said is dead on accurate. Lowering the barrier to market entry has empowered millions of people to make their money work for them. Is some of it unhealthy? Absolutely. But not all gamblers are addicts, and its not all counter-productive either. The downside is that many are jumping in wi…

There's nothing nonsense about it. These big firms have billions on the line and are interested in protecting it. WSB is a comedy outlet where active posters are at least in the high end of hobbyist traders, and they realized that some very greedy short selling left an opening for a decent buck. The vast majority of Robinhood's userbase couldn't even come close to explaining to you the mechanism through which this happened, let alone know when it's happening elsewhere and how to enter and exit. Nobody there has any delusions that they would be able to take on a large firm if the large firm was able to hit back.

Markets and the choices you make them in can be incredibly complex. Most people don't have the time and drive to deal with that, no matter how much you "democratize" the technology.

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#62

It just doesn't add up to me. If you take Gamestop (GME) today's hot item, it's trading 170M shares back and forth, at say, $70. That's $11B sloshing back and forth. You're telling me 10,000 (if even?) guys sitting at home doing retail trading have $1M each in positions driving this? 100,000 people with $100,000 each, during the day? I think it's quant and algorithmic trading. I would love to hear from an expert thou…

yeah it doesn't quite add up to me either. my mostly uneducated guess is that the wsb activity is a spark that triggers a positive feedback loop in some trading algorithms. these algorithms must have some ability to filter out noise from low-information traders, but perhaps no one considered the possibility that a large group of people might make bad trades on purpose?

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#63
post #43

With interest rates at 0% and a quarter of all US dollars in existence having been created in the last year, there is no other choice besides speculation to have any hope of getting ahead. Policymakers have made quite clear that "work hard, save money" is a suckers bet.

the memes about the money printer were pure gold - and totally right given the madness of the past couple weeks.

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#64

Wall street bets is just exposing the facade of wallstreet. As more information about investing becomes available, hedge funds and investors will look increasingly less sophisticated. Platforms like Robinhood will erode their edge by increasing liquidity, lowering transaction costs, and providing access to more exotic investments and financial derivatives.

Max Keiser sure agrees that Wall Street is rampant with fraudulent practices.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2euIWm6Ch4&t=1m15s

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#66

It just doesn't add up to me. If you take Gamestop (GME) today's hot item, it's trading 170M shares back and forth, at say, $70. That's $11B sloshing back and forth. You're telling me 10,000 (if even?) guys sitting at home doing retail trading have $1M each in positions driving this? 100,000 people with $100,000 each, during the day? I think it's quant and algorithmic trading. I would love to hear from an expert thou…

> You're telling me 10,000 (if even?) guys sitting at home doing retail trading have $1M each in positions driving this? 100,000 people with $100,000 each, during the day?

No, it's the same retail people trading in and out. Someone w/ $100 in buying power can generate $2000 in traded value pretty easily just buying & selling 20 times, which some retail people do because they don't know what they're doing.

There's also going to be HFT market makers flipping their position and taking the other side, which almost doubles the volume compared to what it would be if there were no MMs. It's not a capital intensive business and they can trade huge volumes with very small capital.

Then there's going to be GME options market makers who are getting gamma squeezed and hedging their deltas. That would explain a bit.

The hedge funds getting squeezed explain about ~30m of the volume (assumption that 50% of the short float got squeezed), or perhaps more if they covered their position yesterday and decided to put it back on today.

Probably also some totally new hedge funds coming in today with a short as well, although that won't explain much volume since the entire float was shorted (and them some, due to naked shorting) and naked shorting is technically not allowed.

I'm sure all the prop firms were all over it today, as well, and they're going to be in and out with up to $1m positions.

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#67

WSB is hilarious. It’s also such a place of sadness. Taking credit card advances to YOLO into short-dated OTM call options is drug-addict level desperation. People joke about YOLOing their inheritance - and I suspect there’s some reality to it. Their parents’ entire life’s wealth can’t dig them out of whatever hole their in. The CNBC guys freaking out is incredible. Their Cramer feud is gold. But... this trend is dif…

I highly suspect the reason for this is because there is less income security for the young generation in 2021 compared to 1999. In 1999, people under 40 were gambling large sums that, if lost, could be made back through x months of work. In 2021, people under 40 are gambling any random ad hoc payment they receive in the attempt of calling it a career. The reason? 10% of our country have great jobs, and the rest have…

The median bottom quintile of incomes is higher today in real terms than is was in the 1990s, and the median income is higher as well.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-p...

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is always an alure of outsmarting everyone and getting rich quick.

How can you be outsmarting people when you're just taking public advice from random people on the Internet? Unless you're the guy posting the "hot tips" that you just happened to buy a bunch of shares in a few minutes ago hoping that the sheep will push up the price for a moment.

Eppur si muove

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#69
I understand the nihilism. When you start earning vast sums of money very quickly, and see other people do the same, you start getting a sense that money isn’t really worth working all that hard for.

I’ve been making about 5k or 6k a week regularly this past year in the stock market with little effort, through stock appreciation and selling options. It definitely makes me feel less motivated to do my job, but the one thing that keeps me going is that I know this situation is not forever and the market goes through feast and famine cycles, so I need to maintain a job. But certainly nothing more ambitious than that, I have no plans to ascend into management or whatever bullshit that has me taking more work and responsibility for slightly more pay. Once I have a resilient source of passive income I’m off to be a gentleman hacker. Working hard for money is a waste of life.

Re: The nihilism of r/wallstreetbets

#70

It just doesn't add up to me. If you take Gamestop (GME) today's hot item, it's trading 170M shares back and forth, at say, $70. That's $11B sloshing back and forth. You're telling me 10,000 (if even?) guys sitting at home doing retail trading have $1M each in positions driving this? 100,000 people with $100,000 each, during the day? I think it's quant and algorithmic trading. I would love to hear from an expert thou…

>You're telling me 10,000 (if even?) guys sitting at home doing retail trading have $1M each in positions driving this? 100,000 people with $100,000 each, during the day?

Matt Levine wrote about this in his Money Stuff newsletter today. I highly recommend the newsletter.

In summary, the options have an amplifying effect on the total volume because of the hedging by market makers. Pair it up with a meme stock, and you have a lot of weird stuff happening all at once.

Primarily explained in the 2nd paragraph, but setup in the 1st paragraph.

"Second, a lot of people (on Reddit) who like GameStop don’t buy stock; they buy call options. If you are a retail trader looking to gamble on a stock, you can buy call options to get leveraged exposure to the stock. For instance, last Tuesday (Jan. 19), you could have bought a $50-strike call option on 100 shares of GameStop stock expiring this coming Friday (Jan. 29). Bloomberg tells me this option would have cost you about $3.35 per share, or about $335 for a 100-share option contract; the stock closed that day at $39.36. If you sold the options on Friday (Jan. 22), when the stock closed at $65.01, they were worth $18.16 per share. 4 You put in $335 and got back $1,816; you made a 442% return in four days. If you had just bought 100 shares of stock instead, you would have had to put in $3,936 to get back $6,501, a 65% return. Of course if the stock had stayed flat instead of going up to $65.01, you’d have lost 0% by buying shares and 100% by buying the options. So options are great if you have a relatively small amount of money and want to take a lot of risk with it. If, for instance, you are a retail trader on WallStreetBets."

"Meanwhile the market maker who sold you the options would have hedged its option exposure by buying about 40 shares of GameStop stock, for about $1,575. (This—the fraction of the underlying shares that the market maker buys to hedge the option—is called “delta.” 5 ) Your $335 of option premium caused $1,575 of stock buying. More important, as the stock goes up, the market maker will adjust its hedge by buying more stock—by the end of the day on Friday, the market maker would have owned about 80 shares. (The change in delta as the stock price changes is called “gamma,” and people who like this sort of technical explanation love talking about “gamma.” 6 ) You haven’t done anything else—you bought the options on Tuesday, and then stopped trading—but the market maker kept buying hundreds of dollars more stock as the stock went up to keep the option hedged. 7 Multiply that by the extreme popularity of GameStop options, and you get a lot of stock being bought as the price goes up—which, of course, pushes the price up more."

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-25/the-ga...

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