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Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

theguardian.com

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Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#491

Post by WorldMaker »

tarjei wrote: post #167
dawnerd wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A powerwall has what, 12ish KW usable (less in reality) which a single one can power a house for for up to a day if you're careful about what you're using. If you scale that up to the 75KW+ batteries being put into EVs today buying an inverter could be a good investment if you live in an area with frequent power outages (or a cabin or whatnot). There was also some talk about Teslas being able to send power back to th…

AFAIK there are other makers that are also ready for this. I seem to remember that the Leaf is. What I think will be the hard part of including cars into the grid is the warranty issues. I.e. if a battery gets so much usage from the grid that it somehow gets broken or worn out, who should take that cost/ risk?

IIRC, it was added in one of the charging standards, I want to say it was CCS. In theory every car that supports that charging standard should be capable of it, but in practice that will likely be a different matter. As few people need it, few people are likely testing that it works.

I've heard the hard part right now is more regulatory in nature. Especially in the US where energy regulations vary not just from state to state, but also sometimes regionally within states based on power utility provider for a region.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#492

Post by WorldMaker »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #190
magicalhippo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK the main problem with the Leaf battery is that it doesn't have active thermal management[1]. I guess it's possible one could make a replacement battery pack which has an internal cooling loop, but it would be quite limited in how much heat it could get rid of through the battery case body without external radiators. Of course better batteries might heat up less when used or charged, due to lower internal resist…

It's somewhat strange that they didn't add active thermal management. The Nissan electric vans do have it.

Recent Leafs have added it since, around the same time Teslas added it (but well after GM did, as GM will point to its Michigan Proving Grounds as a bitterly cold battery workout and saw active thermal management as an early requirement).

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#493

Post by robbiep »

m463 wrote: post #201
missedthecue wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.

> Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. I've wondered about this. Is there a way that democracy could compete, possibly by reflecting "the will of the people" quickly and accurately? Or would that always fundamentally be a popularity contest? Or will democracy require something akin to "martial law" to quickly decide and act on urgent matters?

To go right back to the beginning, this was Plato’s argument in the Republic (benevolent philosopher king better than mob rule). He argued that democracy would tend to mob rule (some good examples of that recently...) but history has also shown that there are very few philosopher kings/very hard to maintain that for more than a generation

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#494

Post by WorldMaker »

sircastor wrote: post #10

I’ll be interested to see the lifespan of EVs for “normal” people. I’ve got a 2012 Nissan LEAF we bought post-lease in 2015. I love it still, and don’t have any plans to replace it. The battery is not in great shape, but it gets me where I need to go. I am genuinely considering replacing the battery rather than buying another EV when the battery finally fails.

I'm interested in this as well. The overall median and mean ages of an EV with their first owner is still way above the decades lasting 3 year ICE mean.

This doesn't seem to be just an "early adopter effect" as the "neophilia" of "early adopters" you would think would trend the other way to a shorter first owner life.

If the increased first owner life of EVs remains as more "normal" people buy in, that implies there may be a major shift in the secondary/used markets and that may be fascinating to watch. It might possibly be a hugely surprising (to some) secondary effect of an EV transition. There's a lot of jobs in the used market, and such a big shift could disrupt those jobs quite a bit.

(I've got a 2012 Chevy Volt myself and don't feel a lot of pressure to replace it any time before the 15-year warranty on the drive chain/battery. I probably wouldn't replace the battery, as the small bit of pressure I do feel is that it is about time to get rid of the compromise of having an ICE generator backup I hardly/never use and move to a full proper EV.)

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#495

Post by bagacrap »

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

if that's a problem then your parents should have a gas or diesel powered generator anyway, which could charge the car in an emergency

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#496

Post by bagacrap »

lumberingjack wrote: post #350

Yeah it's great our local coal powered plant started charging more per kilowatt because of electric cars draining the grid. They've also been adding surcharges on anything they can for electric vehicles like big taxes on tires just so they can get that tax that they're missing from the gas pump.

I mean, shouldn't they be trying to find a way to replace revenue loss from dropping gas usage? Presumably a good portion of that gas tax is going towards maintaining automobile-oriented infrastructure (roads bridges etc) which EVs also need.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#497

Post by bagacrap »

ekzy wrote: post #179

I need a new car but I am put off by the range and charging infrastructure of EV. I haven’t looked into it properly yet but I’m surprised there’s not much more good hybrid cars on the market, sounds like a great compromise on the paper. What’s the catch?

hybrids don't really offer much more efficiency over ICE, but they do add cost and complexity (more things to break). The good compromise is PHEV (plug in hybrid) since you get the efficiency of grid energy for short trips but retain the reliability and versatility of ICE.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#498

Post by blake1 »

jeffreygoesto wrote: post #123
theshrike79 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only cars having actual battery issues so far are older Leafs (shit thermal management for the battery) and Priuses (they're just old). No other EV has had major battery issues yet, so there really hasn't been time to develop a viable 3rd party battery replacement industry. Even the actual car manufacturers tend to quote insane prices for full battery replacements because they really don't have a process in place…

"just old" applies to the battery technology used when they were built. Not to "a car" in general. It is totally uneconomic to scrap a car only because one part broke. I own a car from 1978 that is in very good shape (for some minimal maintenance cost, you should not just let it rot).

I scrapped my model year 2007 car when the engine block broke. The labor on replacing that exceeded the value of the car.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#499

Post by WorldMaker »

nindalf wrote: post #128
ido wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be great but high % growth from a small base doesn't imply the same growth rate will continue once it reaches higher levels (see for example how undeveloped economies grow faster until they become developed, at which point growth slows down: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence_(economics) )

In general, what you’re saying about growth rates is true. However, there’s reason to believe that electric cars could grow at that pace 1. Regulation by governments. A few states and countries are mandating zero emissions (ie electric) vehicles by 2035. 2. Car manufacturer strategy. Since they know they can’t sell ICE vehicles past 2035 in some jurisdictions, it’s better to make the transition to electric quicker. A…

Per point 2, all of the German manufacturers now seem to have similar strategy dates. Many other European manufacturers are presumably paying attention as well. Even in the US, GM has signaled they've got their own relatively close date in mind where they expect it to happen, but for many reasons (including hostile US shareholders) have been keeping the specific date close to the chest. They are probably a bit more pessimistic in that date than the German automakers, but they've made it clear the horizon is coming (whether hostile US shareholders like it or not).

Interesting flipside corollaries to points 3 and 4: my opinion is I expect we may see something of a "singularity" slope in the transition sooner than I think a lot of people expect as ICE supply chains (which are quite complex webs) get disrupted and gas infrastructure goes away. Disruptions to the first may cause quick spikes in ICE vehicle costs and maintenance costs from increasing prices for consumers and decreasing supply of ICE-specific auto parts. As for the second issue, gas pumps are already seen as a high maintenance cost rarely profitable loss leader for grocery stores and convenience stores. How long do you think the pumps will be serviced/maintained/made available as demand drops? I certainly expect it might snowball surprisingly quickly whether or not overall oil costs remain at historic lows.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#500

Post by selykg »

csunbird wrote: post #486
selykg wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is always so hung up on the value of the car when it comes to repairs. The value of the car is only what someone would pay for it. If you're planning to keep it, then that value is only an insurance number. A car is potentially worth a lot more if you keep it, especially if the car is low maintenance. With electric cars you trade some value up front (they are typically more expensive) to reduce the maintenan…

This is quite different from maintenance. You already pay upfront to have lower maintenance costs, so the gas/oil/maintenance savings argument do not apply here, I think. You usually do not throw the car when it requires a major repair, but when the car is worth 2k with dead batteries to scrap and the replacement of the batteries costs 10k, while you can find a car that is OK to drive for 9k, it is considered unecono…

Depending on your car, it may be easier to replace the batteries (and cheaper) than you think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3RCdrh666w&vl=de

Now, this probably isn't for the average person, an independent dealer or a resourceful (and careful) car owner could easily replace batteries much much cheaper.

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