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Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

theguardian.com

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Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#441

Post by thinkcontext »

oblio wrote: post #118
paul7986 wrote: post #27

Can i get an electric car that I can go fill it's battery as fast as I can go fill my gasoline tank? That's when I'm getting one!

You're being downvoted because HN loves electric car, but for the layman, that's their thought process: 1. Does the EV cost as much as a regular car? Most of them are very expensive, comparatively, especially for cheap family cars. 2. Is the range comparable to regular cars? It's not, at similar prices it's 60%. 3. Is it trivial to recharge it, especially quickly? Not true for most of the world. 4. Can the car be bou…

> Does the EV cost as much as a regular car? Most of them are very expensive, comparatively, especially for cheap family cars.

The average price paid for new US cars was $40K [0]. There are now plenty of models below that without subsidy, including Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW ID4, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and even the low end of the Tesla 3. That's just the upfront price, of course TCO is lower than a same price ICE car because fuel and maintenance are lower.

[0] https://www.carscoops.com/2021/01/average-new-car-prices-in-...

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#442

Post by thinkcontext »

neuronic wrote: post #176
konschubert wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair there are heavy subsidies for electric cars in Germany.

They existed years ago and I am skeptical that they are significant enough to make the average person even consider a new electric car. They are still too expensive for what they offer, even with heavy subsidies. However, what I do see in Germany, are more and more electric cars in car sharing, rentals and company fleets. Upper middle class is going pretty electric as well to appear cool/caring about climate. Several…

> They are still too expensive for what they offer, even with heavy subsidies.

The average price paid for new US cars was $40K [0]. There are now plenty of models below that without subsidy, including Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW ID4, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona and even the low end of the Tesla 3. That's just the upfront price, of course TCO is lower than a same price ICE car because fuel and maintenance are lower.

[0] https://www.carscoops.com/2021/01/average-new-car-prices-in-...

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#443

Post by bluGill »

blackrock wrote: post #389
refurb wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China hasn’t been a colony since when? 100 years ago? Then it was Japanese colonialism. So Asian colonialization of other Asians. Then China decided on a political system that stunted their growth for 40 years. Vietnam stunted their growth for 25 years. Yet we blame the white man?

You seem to think that a society can turn on a dime. And that past historical grievances does not factor into modern day realities.

Some parts do turn on a dime. Recovery tends to take longer in many cases because people are slow to assume that the cause of bad times won't come back. This can be good or bad depending on what the correct reaction to bad times is. If the correct action is saving that is very different from the correct action to be not doing anything.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#444

Post by manmal »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #307
manmal wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you consider that the new car in Poland will be on the road for 10-15 years, it's still better to buy an electric car instead. They will exit coal soon, and in a few years the EV will be greener to operate.

I thought cars these days last 200k miles easy, probably 300k+ with minor repairs. At 15k miles per year, that should give at least 15 years of use, but I would hope the average was more 20+.

I agree, in some cases 15-20 years, or more, might be possible. Depends on how easy/cheap to replace all the parts are - seats will wear out, the headliner will have accumulated all kinds of stains and grease, random electronics (a modern car has ~100 microcontrollers) might fail and be hard to access, AC might be expensive to fix, maybe the battery dies and (even if the batteries are cheap by then) the mechanic charges 1k for the replacement...

At some point it's probably cheaper to buy another used 8yo EV than continuing to maintain an 18yo EV.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#445

Post by lebuffon »

BurningFrog wrote: post #403
missedthecue wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.

The average autocracy is deeply inefficient at anything but serving the autocrats every need. China is an extreme outlier in that respect. What they've done the last 40 years is unparallelled and very hard to explain.

My explanation is that they abandoned the "buckets" that people put countries into when they talk about governance.

It's not communism. It's also not democracy.

They picked dictatorial government and matched it with unbridled capitalism which distills to two rules IMHO:

1. Make as much money as you want. 2. NEVER speak bad about the government/system.

It's working so far.

Their next big challenge is in the making now; de-population due to the one child policy of the past.

They will require massive immigration which will be de-stabilizing. Interesting times indeed ...

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#446

Post by gehwartzen »

WanderPanda wrote: post #205
kstenerud wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due. Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becom…

I absolutely agree! I am just really struggling to put a time estimate on when the bill will come due for china. I think they can be in an upward trend for some more years as a technological follower. What I mean by that is that they use simple metrics of current technology (Ghz, GB, battery life, screen colors, electric car range and so in) and just “mandate” to get better in them. But all these things will eventual…

If China is smart, and they are, they will simply outsource the innovation. If you have enough money you just poach innovators out of US/Europe; have them work remote if they don't want to come to China.

It will basically flip the "system" we have now.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#447

Post by throwawaygh »

godmode2019 wrote: post #81

'Global sales' I hope everyone understands in China it is very hard to get a licence plate, the government allows you to get a licence plate if you buy a heavily subsidised electric car. The aim is to stimulate demand to develop an industry. Large cities also banned motorbikes and scooters, with the same aim. This is no way market driven demand, BYD is a very interesting company to look into. It is my understanding t…

> This is no way market driven demand

Serious question & not meant to be snarky: does any of this really matter when thinking about the future of electric vehicles?

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#448

Post by throwawaygh »

namelosw wrote: post #397
godmode2019 wrote: post #81

'Global sales' I hope everyone understands in China it is very hard to get a licence plate, the government allows you to get a licence plate if you buy a heavily subsidised electric car. The aim is to stimulate demand to develop an industry. Large cities also banned motorbikes and scooters, with the same aim. This is no way market driven demand, BYD is a very interesting company to look into. It is my understanding t…

Oil dependence is only one factor of it, another factor is EV itself obviously has a bright future market, and it's a very good opportunity to take the advantage now. It's very hard to compete with traditional car industry - the brands are very well established. However traditional brands moves rather slow on EV because all kinds of their own issues. EV is the perfect opportunity for Chinese to jump in the market and…

> which may eventually led China to be an important player in the next decade.

Seems highly unlikely. Today's TSMC is even harder to compete with than yesterday's Intel/Qualcomm or even long ago's IBM.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#449

Post by mikestew »

ralfd wrote: post #252
ido wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be great but high % growth from a small base doesn't imply the same growth rate will continue once it reaches higher levels (see for example how undeveloped economies grow faster until they become developed, at which point growth slows down: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence_(economics) )

I believe we could reach a tipping point soon. The worst time to own an electric car was when almost none were sold, with zero infrastructure. But soon electric infrastructure will be mainstream. While time is counting against combustion cars. In the UK from 2030 onwards all new cars must be hybrid or fully electric. And the sale of new hybrids is to be outlawed from 2035.

The worst time to own an electric car was when almost none were sold, with zero infrastructure.

Yeah, but we knew that when we bought a 2011 Leaf. But no one was going to build the infrastructure if no one bought electric cars, so... (And, fact is, we rarely charge it away from home, so charging infrastructure has been a thing a half dozen times in ten years.)

Ten years later, we look forward to the vast improvements in EVs when we eventually replace it.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#450

Post by symlinkk »

I acknowledge that electric cars are objectively superior. But subjectively I can’t get excited about one. I want a great sounding exhaust. I want a great feeling manual transmission. Cars for me are more about feeling, heritage, and excitement than about raw performance and efficiency. For that reason I think I’ll try to hold on to gas cars as long as I can.
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