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18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

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Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#381
post #347
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this paper they've used 45 for HIV. What's your point? https://www.hindawi.com/journals/art/2016/7954810/

> In this paper they've used 45 for HIV. What's your point? There is a difference between HIV vs SARS-Cov2: If you get AIDS, your body does not have the capacity to recover from it on its own. So, 1) the chances of detecting dead material from a long gone infection are nil; and 2) the cost of a false negative is much higher than the cost of a false positive. Since most people seem not to be seriously affected by a SA…

So you think they should use some lower Ct number for which it would be possible to show that eg 99.5% of people who are over it (i.e. have lower viral load) don't infect anyone? Interesting. I've read that most of the false negative for a PCR test actually come from sample collection (makes sense, PCR is super reliable) so it could be that you would miss people with high viral load where the sample was just not taken in a perfect way. Especially early in the infection it could be quite localized.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#382
post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

Perhaps not for quite a while.

The vaccine grants 95% protection with those measures in place. We have no idea how effective it is without those measures. If we're all going to dance parties, the vaccine might not be adequate.

I think the question is the point at which we can send kids back to schools and reopen our businesses with precautions in place -- in other words, stem the pain and bleeding.

It makes sense to keep masks on and 6-foot distance until the virus is gone, though. Vaccine+masking/distancing should be enough to get rid of it. It's not clear vaccine alone will do that.

If not, we'll be on a dance for decades with new mutations, vaccines, and whatnot. We want this thing dead and gone for good.

I don't think we're on a path to get there, though. People are fed up. If we can't get this under control, I suspect the new normal will be outbreaks for the rest of our lives. Perhaps the vaccine will be 95% without distancing. Or perhaps not.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#383
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

Living in Israel I can tell you that the (current) plan involves masks and distancing for the entirety of 2021. We now have reasonable evidence that those vaccinated folks are still transmitters of the virus, and as of today, the majority of new cases in the last 48 hours were from the UK strain that targets children. The real worry here is unfortunately human behaviour and not science. The science is clear, and it's…

>The science is clear, and it's been said/written/screamed/spraypainted that the #1 reason we have all of these restrictions is actually human behaviour as opposed to the virus itself.

Nope, if the virus didnt exist, there would be no restrictions; therefore, it is the primary reason.

Has there ever been a control group or any historical precedence to scientifically support the questionable hypothesis that a highly contagious virus can be can be globally controlled simply by controlling human behavior? (i.e. locking down entire nations while "essential workers" -- poor people -- are still forced to go to work)

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#384
post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

Perhaps not for quite a while. The vaccine grants 95% protection with those measures in place. We have no idea how effective it is without those measures. If we're all going to dance parties, the vaccine might not be adequate. I think the question is the point at which we can send kids back to schools and reopen our businesses with precautions in place -- in other words, stem the pain and bleeding. It makes sense to…

>Vaccine+masking/distancing should be enough to get rid of it. It's not clear vaccine alone will do that.

The public is treating the vaccine for like the vaccine for polio, which is that once you get it, you're good. If 80%+ of Americans get the vaccine and we still have to mask and social distance, you're going to see a lot of angry people.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#385
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in Israel I can tell you that the (current) plan involves masks and distancing for the entirety of 2021. We now have reasonable evidence that those vaccinated folks are still transmitters of the virus, and as of today, the majority of new cases in the last 48 hours were from the UK strain that targets children. The real worry here is unfortunately human behaviour and not science. The science is clear, and it's…

>The science is clear, and it's been said/written/screamed/spraypainted that the #1 reason we have all of these restrictions is actually human behaviour as opposed to the virus itself. Nope, if the virus didnt exist, there would be no restrictions; therefore, it is the primary reason. Has there ever been a control group or any historical precedence to scientifically support the questionable hypothesis that a highly c…

Mere history won't stop us from trying to restrict human behavior into oblivion.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#386
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "fuck it, I'm taking my life back" months ago. And then I realized how little that is possible. How are you going to protest your way into a concert that isn't performing? How are you going to demand your way into a university that isn't teaching? How are you going to riot your way into a Disneyland that isn't running? How are you going to force your way into a sports stadium that isn't playing? How are you go…

Sorry if your government cares more about your peers’ health than your entertainment values. Thoughts and prayers.

It clearly doesn't though.

Obesity and heart disease have been killing far more people in the US than covid and yet Mcdonalds and Coke advertisements are everywhere inbetween television entertainment.

Also note obesity/heart disease are among the greatest risk factors of poor health outcomes for covid.

Why is there little to no mention of eating healthy and exercising in the government's health guidelines to combat this threat?

There are countless other examples of bureaucrats caring more about money and power than public health - while putting on the appearance of caring for public health. See also: the war on drugs.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#387
post #292
post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The people getting vaccinated right now are those that are, by far, most at risk. Every single extra vacation right now has a high chance of saving a life, which is much less true for the vaccinations that are administered when reaching the numbers that you care about. Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influ…

Not here in Israel. We're in our third lockdown and they keep extending it (it was supposed to be two weeks...I can't keep track of how many times its been extended).

I was sitting in the park in a riverbank the other day, cops patrolled and asked people where they lived. Whoever you're with must live in the same household as you, and you may not be more than a km from home. I didn't see anyone get fined (although I believe they have the discretion to do so) but I saw some groups of friends be dispersed by the police.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#388
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the new “we have no evidence masks help” or “no evidence of asymptomatic spread”. Name a vaccine that doesn’t reduce onward transmission even as it cures disease. It’s overwhelmingly likely that the vaccine will slow transmission and foolish to throw our priors in the garbage bin. What we don’t know yet is how much onward transmission will be reduced.

"Name a vaccine that doesn’t reduce onward transmission even as it cures disease" Whooping cough - that treats the symptoms but does not stop the patient from spreading the disease Edit: Added context

I looked into this, and it does seem the vaccine reduces transmission. It just doesn’t stop it entirely. The paper below is Wikipedia’s source. Upon a close read, in the daycare there were three groups of vaccinated children:

* Those positive for antibodies but pcr negative —> had been exposed, cleared virus without infection

* those pcr positive but asymptomatic

* those pcr positive and symptomatic

About 30% were in the seropositive group which didn’t have pcr positivity. So it seems like transmission was reduced at least 30%. It’s also possible the other two groups would have had lower transmission rates than if they had had no vaccine.

If you have a more precise source I’d be interested to see it, but if this is the worst case it’s pretty good!

> We used PCR, EIA, and culture to confirm B. pertussis infection in two highly vaccinated groups of children in two day-care centers. Three (10%) of 30 2- to 3-year-old children were seropositive for recent infection; one had nasopharyngeal colonization and a clinical illness that met the modified WHO case definition. In the day-care center for the 5- to 6- year-old group, 9 (55%) of 16 children were IgM positive, 4 (25%) of whom had nasopharyngeal colonization. Of these four children, three had nonspecific cough, and only one met the modified WHO definition for pertussis. None of the children in our study, including those who met the WHO definition, had been examined by a physician before our investigation.

>Children who were seropositive and re- mained both asymptomatic and PCR negative probably had sufficient immunity from vaccines or natural boosters to protect them against persistent colonization and clinical disease. Their seropositivity could not be due to vaccine because the children were tested more than a year after having been vaccinated.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627963/pdf/109...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#389

Are we prepared for a much worse pandemic? Are we building a healthy population? Vaccines are only one part of the long-term solution here.

I agree. We need to start instituting temperature checks at all businesses and mandatory mobile phone contact tracing. This would help reduce crime as well.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#390
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "fuck it, I'm taking my life back" months ago. And then I realized how little that is possible. How are you going to protest your way into a concert that isn't performing? How are you going to demand your way into a university that isn't teaching? How are you going to riot your way into a Disneyland that isn't running? How are you going to force your way into a sports stadium that isn't playing? How are you go…

> We are no longer ever allowed to make personal risk management decisions. Your freedom borders with mine - you should be allowed to do EVERYTHING which doesn't affect others without their consent. Ignoring COVID-19 precautionary measures isn't one of those things, and I am happy the joy-destroying authoritarian overlords took that choice from you.

> you should be allowed to do EVERYTHING which doesn't affect others without their consent

People don't exist in vacuums. Nearly every decision you make is going to affect society somehow. If you decide to eat fast food for every meal and become obese, that isn't happening in a vacuum. Sooner or later you will start putting strain on the healthcare system and if enough people do the same, the "joy-destroying overlords" are going to start taxing sugar and fat (or other agency-limiting measures) to save you from yourself. Is that the world you want to live in - where the government has to increasingly limit everyone's agency in order to save more lives?

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