Earlier quoted context omitted.
and yet states that didn't - and aren't - locking down - like Florida - are doing fine. Or better than states that have extensive lockdowns like New York, New Jersey and California... > Political reasons ... aggressive lockdowns in Australia Locking down a small country like Australia is much different than locking down a country like the US. Australia is only 20% smaller than the US yet has 10% of the population. Th…
> Locking down Australia would be like locking down one of our less densely populated states This is very wrong. Australia is very, very dense, where people live : it just has a lot of absolutely uninhabited land . Functionally Australia is almost entirely urban.
18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
361–370 of 456 posts
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#362Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the poster above you was talking about the chances of death from the virus, not simply the chance of infection. I think it's pretty well established at this point that the case fatality index for children is vastly lower than for older adults, about 0.1% for people under age 29. [1] 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
There's more to this virus than fatality. Many people that live will have debilitating aftereffects for the foreseeable future.
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#363Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why not? Bidding should be time based to provide better incentives for the companies to spend money on factories.
Because the need for massive, acute production capacity for a specific variation of vaccine is short-lived. What's the odds that we're going to have another pandemic in the next 10 years that has nRNA vaccine? There's no need for massive production capacity other than during a global pandemic, and you probably don't know what you need, supply chains etc. until the time of production or thereabouts. So - the money won…
The amount we're spending on productionizing vaccines is nothing compared to the damage the virus creates every day.
Businesses a failing every day, and when they go bankrupt they won't be able to come back.
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#364Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#365Earlier quoted context omitted.
No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.
This is the new “we have no evidence masks help” or “no evidence of asymptomatic spread”. Name a vaccine that doesn’t reduce onward transmission even as it cures disease. It’s overwhelmingly likely that the vaccine will slow transmission and foolish to throw our priors in the garbage bin. What we don’t know yet is how much onward transmission will be reduced.
Whooping cough - that treats the symptoms but does not stop the patient from spreading the disease
Edit: Added context
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#366Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, Hungary will introduce "vaccine passport" (vakcinaútlevél) cards to be exempt from curfew for example.
that would just make sense or be fair if everyone get access to the vaccine before those passports are enforced. Otherwise the 80+ years old people are going to have a lot of fun in an empty world :)
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#367Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your body has two types of immune response, one called an innate immunity, which basically is programmed to attack certain types of pathogens at birth, and another an adaptive or acquired immunity. Vaccines target the adaptive immunity. If we only had an innate immunity, viruses and other pathogens would learn to bypass it by hiding or disguising themselves in various ways. In order to counter this, our bodies consta…
Thank you - this is what I was hoping for! > adaptive vs innate This I did not know - so basically there's a class of pathogens we have protections for at birth, and others we have to learn by exposure. Antigens act as metadata of sorts from which our immune system can use to develop response mechanisms, do these antigens mean "permanent upgrade," in terms of our immune system recognizing it? (Yes, memory cells - coo…
Hope you like the book. It’s a fascinating read. My favorite part is when he describes how the immune system is basically able to fuzz test for antibodies. It recombines and quickly mutates its own dna to generate way more antibody types than otherwise would be possible.
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
that would just make sense or be fair if everyone get access to the vaccine before those passports are enforced. Otherwise the 80+ years old people are going to have a lot of fun in an empty world :)
It's mostly at the rumor level, but this concept seems to be supported by decision makers so far. AFAIK no decision or timeline yet.
References:
https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-impfung-impfpflicht-c...
https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-impfung-impfpflicht-c...
https://footage-berlin.com/en/nobody-has-any-intention-of-bu...
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#369At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.
As number of immune people goes up, R goes down, and you can start reducing measures. (until R goes to near-0, at which point you're done) .
At least, that's the theory.
Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated
#370Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing Sticking only with positivity rates is misleading even if one ignores all the costs of lockdowns. As the WHO pointed out on 13 January 2021[1]: > WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases…
Nice, downvoted for a thoughtful post supported by facts and logic.