Live data from Hacker News

18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

covidvaxcount.live

341–350 of 456 posts

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#341
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdowns, social distancing and masking – done consistently – do work. Even the half-measures lockdowns the US has gone through has stopped the entire medical system from collapsing, and at times it has been very close . In NYC in the first wave, it did . But that isn't what has happened in the US, largely for political reasons. There are no good options, only less worse ones, and aggressive lockdowns have got Austr…

and yet states that didn't - and aren't - locking down - like Florida - are doing fine. Or better than states that have extensive lockdowns like New York, New Jersey and California... > Political reasons ... aggressive lockdowns in Australia Locking down a small country like Australia is much different than locking down a country like the US. Australia is only 20% smaller than the US yet has 10% of the population. Th…

Didn’t a person literally get arrested for trying to publish the real numbers of deaths in Florida?

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#342
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you considered relocating them to New Zealand? No COVID, no masks, no need for a vaccine. I’m not sure about government overreach in other parts of life though.

The reason NZ is temporarily covid-0 is because the government trusted the scientists, and the people mostly trusted the government. Much of what the NZ govt does would for sure be seen by many Americans as "massive overreach". The vast majority of NZers will be getting vaccinated when it's available. Without a vaccine you're cut off internationally.

It's not just NZ. Australian states have carried out similar decisive actions.

An example. We had one person in Brisbane (capital of Queensland) who was infected with the UK variant whilst working in one of the isolation hotels (used to isolate people returning to Australia for 14 days).

The infected person reported that they had travelled extensively through the greater Brisbane area during the previous days. Given the unknown factors around the increased ability to transmit of the UK variant, the Queensland government called a 3 day lockdown on Brisbane. No travel unless absolutely necessary (food, medical care, critical job) and if you were outside your house for any reason masks were required.

The three days were to allow the health department to trace all the contacts of the infected person and get them tested. General public were also told to get tested if they had any symptoms and testing facilities were reactivated across the area.

Three days later, no new infections and the restrictions, only retaining the mask mandate in confined areas for another three weeks. We are now about three weeks later and no new community cases.

So was the three day lockdown excessive. I don't believe so. Would the outcome have been any different if we didn't have the three day lockdown? As it turns out, probably not, but it has to be noted that the purpose of the lockdown was to force a stop in possible transmission and give the health department a chance to find out how many people had been infected. Turns out that the infection rate was very low (some immediate family).

If we'd found from the tracing that there was active community transmission there would have been an extension to the lockdown until the rate reduced.

But here we are, essentially living lives unrestricted our freedoms intact until the next time this thing escapes into the community. Then I trust that the government will take prompt action and the public will groan but comply and we will be inconvenienced for a short period before we again return to normal.

Australia has learned a lot about what works and are acting on it. I don't know what lessons can be transferred to the tragic situation in the US apart from showing what would have been possible if your government had taken this seriously from the start.

I feel very sad for your country and wonder how the greatest democracy on the planet has allowed individual freedom (if you want to call it that) to be considered so important that it has been allowed to compromise the freedom of all.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#343
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a pragmatic, level headed world, we could stop wearing masks once everyone above the age of 50 or so is vaccinated, as the risk of death and hospitalization for under 50s is dramatically lower, to the point where death by anything else is significantly higher. In the shrill world of the media, point-scoring politicians, and people that believe we live in some kind of movie world where we can save everyone from eve…

Two points: - Long covid also affects younger people (1-2%), so we might not want stop wearing masks until the case numberes have fallen to less than 5 per 100.000 per week. - we might not want risking that the virus mutates, so we shouldn't use infections amoung the young to get back to normal. Also if your media perception is shrill world then you might want to change your perceptions/media channels.

> Long covid also affects younger people (1-2%),

Do you have a link for that?

> so we might not want stop wearing masks until the case numberes have fallen to less than 5 per 100.000 per week. - we might not want risking that the virus mutates, so we shouldn't use infections amoung the young to get back to normal.

Which backs up my point about being pragmatic. 50% of the UK population are over 50 where COVID risks are dramatically higher. The likelihood of death or serious hospitalization for under 50s is much, much lower. 20-something men in the UK are much more likely to commit suicide, or die driving a car than dying from COVID, or having long-COVID (it's something like 100x more likely IIRC but I can't find a link right now).

> Also if your media perception is shrill world then you might want to change your perceptions/media channels.

I'm not sure what country you are in, but in the UK, at least, the closest to neutral reporting is the BBC, and only for its news bulletins. For everything else, Sky News, newspapers, and so on, the whole approach is just unrelentingly negative, and point scoring against the Government and its advisors.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#344
Any advice on how to help close friends/family members with strong beliefs in vaccine hoaxes (e.g. government will inject chips into our bodies)?

It got so far that they might lose their job, because they believe in the hoax and refuse to get vaccinated.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#345
post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear yet if arm injected vaccines will provide mucosal immunity. They'll prevent serious disease but epithelial cells in the nose, mouth, and so on can still be infected and shed virus. It's the same for flu vaccines. There are nasal vaccines which do provide mucosal immunity like flumist but during heavy flu seasons only the old and young have access. So, even if you're the required 2 months post vaccinate…

Hopefully we'll get some data on to what extent vaccinated people can still spread virus. I hope not too much. There's at least one nasal covid vaccine on the way https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/india-n... Apparently it works very well in monkeys. "We have completed studies on monkeys. It demonstrates 100 per cent sterilising ability."

That seems very promising. Is there any reason to think we'd be different from monkeys in this regard?

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#346
post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

What exactly is so difficult about wearing masks for Americans? I'm an expat living in Thailand, which has an exceptionally low number of cases due to consistent mask use and social precautions. Even if the vaccine reaches a level of saturation that is deemed safe, wearing a mask is a sane precaution that does not hurt you in any way and potentially saves lives of those unable to receive the vaccine.

Individual freedom trumps community welfare.

Who cares if my action causes problems for anybody else, yeah Freedom FREEDOM!!!! I'm the most important person in the world!!! ME ME ME ME ME My rights!!!! Freedom, oh and anything else is ism.

swap in whatever ism is the flavour or the month, I have no idea what any of them mean, but they are all BAD!!!

Sorry... couldn't help myself. There is something disgusting about how people cry freedom as an excuse to take actions that place everybody they encounter at risk.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#347
post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Name a disease where the measure of infection is a PCR test with a 40+ cycle threshold.

In this paper they've used 45 for HIV. What's your point? https://www.hindawi.com/journals/art/2016/7954810/

> In this paper they've used 45 for HIV. What's your point?

There is a difference between HIV vs SARS-Cov2: If you get AIDS, your body does not have the capacity to recover from it on its own. So, 1) the chances of detecting dead material from a long gone infection are nil; and 2) the cost of a false negative is much higher than the cost of a false positive.

Since most people seem not to be seriously affected by a SARS-Cov2 infection, neither is true for SARS-Cov2. So, not agreeing on a fixed, reasonable, standard number of cycles which everyone uses has the consequence of inflating false positives for no gain. Note WHO's updated information[1].

> WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load.

If you are not sick and your viral load is barely detectable, what's the point?

See also Figure 1 in WHO's lab guidance[2].

[1]: https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-not...

[2]: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/334254/WHO-...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics. That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

Living in Israel I can tell you that the (current) plan involves masks and distancing for the entirety of 2021. We now have reasonable evidence that those vaccinated folks are still transmitters of the virus, and as of today, the majority of new cases in the last 48 hours were from the UK strain that targets children.

The real worry here is unfortunately human behaviour and not science. The science is clear, and it's been said/written/screamed/spraypainted that the #1 reason we have all of these restrictions is actually human behaviour as opposed to the virus itself.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#349
post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully we'll get some data on to what extent vaccinated people can still spread virus. I hope not too much. There's at least one nasal covid vaccine on the way https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/india-n... Apparently it works very well in monkeys. "We have completed studies on monkeys. It demonstrates 100 per cent sterilising ability."

That seems very promising. Is there any reason to think we'd be different from monkeys in this regard?

I think the odds are we would not be but they still have to go through all the testing.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#350
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point, we have to let these people choose. You can only protect people from themselves to a certain degree Once the sane ones are vaccinated, open everything up and let nature take care of the dumb ones. If you insist on drinking gasoline, good luck

The people who don't get the vaccine aren't just hurting themselves. We need herd immunity for people who can't take it, or for whom it won't benefit. There are definitely people who may not benefit as much from the vaccine because they are immuno-compromised for example. The only reason not to take it is if your doctor tells you not to. Unless they've told us not to for medical reasons, we should take it if we can g…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN