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18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

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Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#291

Post by erfgh »

toomanybeersies wrote: post #218
wernercd wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except other western countries haven't "gotten it under control"... they are all having second waves and resurgences with or without large lockdowns and with or without draconian processes. > fairly simple Until you start looking at how many lives are saved vs the second and third tier effects. Higher suicide rates from losing jobs and stress? People in third world countries dying from a cratered world economy? etc.…

Australia has had recorded zero locally acquired cases for more than 7 days now. At one point, Melbourne recorded 700 cases in a day, after several months of hard lockdown, it's down to 1 case in 30 days. There's also no indication that the suicide rate in 2020 changed significantly from previous years ( https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/co... )

You know that it's summer in Australia now, right?

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#292

Post by FrojoS »

umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The people getting vaccinated right now are those that are, by far, most at risk. Every single extra vacation right now has a high chance of saving a life, which is much less true for the vaccinations that are administered when reaching the numbers that you care about.

Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influential” person giving you permission.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#293

Post by [deleted] »

FrojoS wrote: post #292
umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The people getting vaccinated right now are those that are, by far, most at risk. Every single extra vacation right now has a high chance of saving a life, which is much less true for the vaccinations that are administered when reaching the numbers that you care about. Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influ…

[deleted]

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#294

Post by wernercd »

adw wrote: post #214
wernercd wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except other western countries haven't "gotten it under control"... they are all having second waves and resurgences with or without large lockdowns and with or without draconian processes. > fairly simple Until you start looking at how many lives are saved vs the second and third tier effects. Higher suicide rates from losing jobs and stress? People in third world countries dying from a cratered world economy? etc.…

Lockdowns, social distancing and masking – done consistently – do work. Even the half-measures lockdowns the US has gone through has stopped the entire medical system from collapsing, and at times it has been very close . In NYC in the first wave, it did . But that isn't what has happened in the US, largely for political reasons. There are no good options, only less worse ones, and aggressive lockdowns have got Austr…

and yet states that didn't - and aren't - locking down - like Florida - are doing fine. Or better than states that have extensive lockdowns like New York, New Jersey and California...

> Political reasons ... aggressive lockdowns in Australia

Locking down a small country like Australia is much different than locking down a country like the US. Australia is only 20% smaller than the US yet has 10% of the population. The layout is different. Temperature. Density. etc.

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/united-states.au...

Locking down Australia would be like locking down one of our less densely populated states - not only does the President not have the ability to do it - he's a President not a King... but locking down the country make zero sense for a virus with a 99%+ survival rate.

again... we can take precautions to protect our hospitals and to "flatten the curve" (which we are loooooong past) and to protect the vulnerable (old, existing conditions, etc)... but locking down America? Coast to coast? No chance this side of turning the President into a Dictator - which was never on the table for Trump and definitely not for Biden.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#295

Post by graeme »

midasuni wrote: post #238
TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics. That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

This is the new “we have no evidence masks help” or “no evidence of asymptomatic spread”.

Name a vaccine that doesn’t reduce onward transmission even as it cures disease. It’s overwhelmingly likely that the vaccine will slow transmission and foolish to throw our priors in the garbage bin.

What we don’t know yet is how much onward transmission will be reduced.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#296

Post by junippor »

pelasaco wrote: post #288
swarnie_ wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.8% is pretty good compared to the rest of the EU right? I'm still not sure why a lot of countries started so late or so slowly. Still, like a lot of things, the last 20% is magnitudes harder then the first 20%. Finishing vaccination programs will come down to how well each government can educate their populist. I fear this is where America will fall down.

Populism x Virtue Signal is the ideology battle from the century. The populists believe in the chip implant and the "Virtue signalist" believe that to focus on the "Elderly" is the only right thing to do. In the middle are we, 99% of the population, in home arrest. IMO 1.8% is bad for a region that are responsible for the technology/production and distribution. Maybe it reflects how less influential EU became in the…

> Populism x Virtue Signal is the ideology battle from the century.

Nonsense. Populism is LITERALLY Virtue Signaling. They're the same thing. So if there's two teams, one identify with a different word for the same thing, you might as well just call them team red and team blue instead.

The actual ideological battle is between those who believe that the world is complex and that learning about the world is really hard work, but can be done through iterated improvement (i.e. people who have an education, not just on paper, but who can actually reason and critically think about the things they learn) and those who start from the assumption that they basically got it all figured out (the anti-intelectualists). This starts as a simple difference in attitude, but with time one of these becomes smarter and more knowledgeable, whereas the other stagnates.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#297

Post by pelasaco »

pelasaco wrote: post #288
swarnie_ wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.8% is pretty good compared to the rest of the EU right? I'm still not sure why a lot of countries started so late or so slowly. Still, like a lot of things, the last 20% is magnitudes harder then the first 20%. Finishing vaccination programs will come down to how well each government can educate their populist. I fear this is where America will fall down.

Populism x Virtue Signal is the ideology battle from the century. The populists believe in the chip implant and the "Virtue signalist" believe that to focus on the "Elderly" is the only right thing to do. In the middle are we, 99% of the population, in home arrest. IMO 1.8% is bad for a region that are responsible for the technology/production and distribution. Maybe it reflects how less influential EU became in the…

> Nonsense. Populism is LITERALLY Virtue Signaling.

Interesting. I like that definition. Thanks!

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#298

Post by Nursie »

FrojoS wrote: post #292
umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The people getting vaccinated right now are those that are, by far, most at risk. Every single extra vacation right now has a high chance of saving a life, which is much less true for the vaccinations that are administered when reaching the numbers that you care about. Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influ…

Not the case UK, and from what I can tell much of Europe is not allowing that at present either.

Here in the UK you may only meet other people for exercise purposes, outside. No visiting each other's homes. It's been this way in most parts of the country for months. Same in Ireland

In France there is a curfew from 8pm-6am and restaurants cannot open. There have been rules preventing meeting others at home, can't tell if they're active right now.

In Germany one person not of that household may visit another household, but only one. This is also true in Belgium.

Some areas of Spain are not allowing meeting in others homes at all.

So ... YMMV.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#299

Post by graeme »

wernercd wrote: post #172
HarryHirsch wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm visualizing that day, and will welcome it Are you into apocalypses? There's the British quick-spreading strain, and there are the Brazilian and South African variants that the vaccine does not offer good protection against. I predict that COVID will be like Picardy Fever, not like the Spanish Flu - there will be outbreaks every few years here and there.

> there's strains And? The world doesn't end when new strains of the cold or the flu happen. Every year. As it's happened for as long as there have been humans. Humans have "eradicated"... Polio? Because it's rather serious? What else have we eradicated? COVID is here to stay.

Smallpox. Polio isn’t actually eradicated but almost is.

However, in the US a lot of diseases were eradicated locally. Malaria used to be endemic, and tuberculosis.

There’s also a list here: Diptheria, Mump, Measles, Rubella

Some have made small comebacks due to anti-vaxxer sentiment, but eradication certainly isn’t some impossible goal.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/6-diseases-the...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#300

Post by LandR »

FrojoS wrote: post #292
umvi wrote: post #3

At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.

The people getting vaccinated right now are those that are, by far, most at risk. Every single extra vacation right now has a high chance of saving a life, which is much less true for the vaccinations that are administered when reaching the numbers that you care about. Also, I don’t know where you live, but I think in most places on earth you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friends, without some “influ…

> you can legally have dinner with a small amount of friend

Not here you can't.

We are not supposed to go outside for anything other than food / exercise and no meeting people from other houses.

People have been fined for going out walks because they didn't go to the closest park to their house.

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