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18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

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Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#261

Post by sneak »

cobookman wrote: post #93

America has ~330 million people. Let's assume the 18.7 Million was just in the month of january..not 100% acurate, but not 100% inaccurate. That gives us a timeline of more than 1 year at current rate to vaccinate the entire US. Even vaccinating 70% the population will take roughly a year at current pace. Puts things in some perspective.

Yeah, in Q3 I was really hoping to be on an airplane this summer.

I realized in December or early January that due to the insane mismanagement it's going to ruin this summer too, and it'll likely be Q3 of this year before travel is really safe or reasonable again.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#262

Post by xyzzy123 »

DenisM wrote: post #146
guscost wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure how much of it is fear of the MRNA vaccine itself, and how much is an objection to the creepy fascist context. Probably a lot of both, and maybe yes a bit too much of the former. But in any case their reply is, “We would rather take the risk.” If they get sick and die like your grandma (condolences), they will have done so at least partially by choice, a choice which they have damn well earned by their m…

Have you considered relocating them to New Zealand? No COVID, no masks, no need for a vaccine. I’m not sure about government overreach in other parts of life though.

The reason NZ is temporarily covid-0 is because the government trusted the scientists, and the people mostly trusted the government.

Much of what the NZ govt does would for sure be seen by many Americans as "massive overreach".

The vast majority of NZers will be getting vaccinated when it's available.

Without a vaccine you're cut off internationally.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#263

Post by satellite2 »

remote_phone wrote: post #217
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of people interested is up to 66% now ( https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/21/poli... ), and I think there’s good reason to expect it to keep rising as the rollout continues. It does seem likely there’ll be an awkward in between period where we don’t have quite enough takeup but the vaccinated people demand to go clubbing, but I don’t expect it’ll be too large.

The number of people in the US interested in getting vaccinated is very high, especially compared to Europe where it’s something like 20% in France.

It's 59% of people interested in getting the vaccine in France.

https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/59-des-francais-prets-recourir-u...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#264

Post by [deleted] »

midasuni wrote: post #238
TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics. That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

[deleted]

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#265

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

ThrustVectoring wrote: post #244
midasuni wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

No evidence that it doesn't , either. It's simply hard to get this evidence and irrelevant for getting vaccines approved, so nobody has bothered. And it'd be really odd if it didn't help wrt infection rate.

Yeah, it would be great if the vaccine does prevent spread, but we should act like it doesn't until we know more.

As someone mentioned upthread, Israel will be an early indicator here.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#266

Post by azeirah »

anovikov wrote: post #256
jnotwell wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one with any credibility is suggesting 2 months... As of October, "The confirmed examples worldwide [of re-infections] could possibly be counted on your fingers" [0]. Immune memory cells, which are more potent than antibodies, persist for longer than 6 months [1]. We don't have data to support 2 years of immunity, but current evidence is pointing at it being long-lasting [2]. [0] https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipel…

Lots and lots and lots (hundreds of thousands) of people in Russia have been officially infected and diagnosed twice. Many Russian docs who worked with Covid patients have already been sick three times. And yes, most of the time they say it's 3-5 months for asymptomatic cases and 9 months and more for severe symptomatic.

Do you have a source on that? I'm concerned about reinfection, I had it back in March last year.

Got tested for antibodies, the test did detect some but concluded I didn't have immunity anymore.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#267

Post by danielheath »

twelve40 wrote: post #251
lsiebert wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people who don't get the vaccine aren't just hurting themselves. We need herd immunity for people who can't take it, or for whom it won't benefit. There are definitely people who may not benefit as much from the vaccine because they are immuno-compromised for example. The only reason not to take it is if your doctor tells you not to. Unless they've told us not to for medical reasons, we should take it if we can g…

Apparently the post you're replying to is not very popular. But I think both yours and that post make valid points that don't even contradict each other. Because even if we pressure people to do the right thing, after all, this is presumably a free country and there seem to be plenty of people (quickly scanning this thread for percentage quotes, dangerously close to ruining the presumed herd immunity level) who will…

In Australia, there are daycare subsidies worth ~50% the cost, gated by kids getting vaccines or a doctors exemption.

That largely works pretty well at keeping the pool of deniers down to the true-believers; it turns out that many anti-vaxxers give up their beliefs when it becomes personally inconvenient to hold them.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#268

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

packetlost wrote: post #163
randmeerkat wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imho you’re underestimating the impact of the disease in general. Disease is much more than who lives or dies, there’s also people who “survive”. A number of asymptomatic covid patients have severe lung damage. Vaccinating “at risk” people who might die doesn’t account for all the people who might live permanently disabled lives as a result of a covid infection. https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/01/14/asymptomatic-co…

Considering the source for that is a single trauma surgeon on Twitter, I'm going to wait until there's something formally published on the matter. We have no information on the condition of the patient with "covid lung", or even a comparison between asymptomatic patients vs patients put on ventilators. Not saying you're wrong, but that article seems sensationalized and quite honestly lacking in relevant information.

As an anecdote, my sister had Covid in March and had lung damage in October when she went for a checkup.

Also, we're not going to get much research on this until after the pandemic is over, because of pandemic related lack of routine medical care.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#269

Post by deathgrips »

hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #234
T-hawk wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "fuck it, I'm taking my life back" months ago. And then I realized how little that is possible. How are you going to protest your way into a concert that isn't performing? How are you going to demand your way into a university that isn't teaching? How are you going to riot your way into a Disneyland that isn't running? How are you going to force your way into a sports stadium that isn't playing? How are you go…

Sorry if your government cares more about your peers’ health than your entertainment values. Thoughts and prayers.

Why are you scared? Just wear a mask :)

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#270

Post by voiper1 »

midasuni wrote: post #238
TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we could just stick with positivity rates and case numbers to figure that out, like we have been doing. Once the vaccines start working their magic, we’ll see it in those metrics. That way we don’t have to try and guess how infectious someone can still be after they have had the vaccine

No evidence that the vaccine stops spread, or even slows it down. It improves outcomes, so hospitals won’t be overloaded. Israel is over 40% on first dose and should have interesting reault sun the next month or two.

Well it's only 40% if you count only the over age 16 population. (Israel is not vaccinating under age 16 until more information.)

If you look at the entire population, it's only about 28% got 1st dose and 12% got second dose, many within the last week.

But with a population of about 9.3 million (size and population comparable to New Jersey) and they just ramped up to about 1million vaccinations a week, we could be at "full" vaccination March 26th - 85% of eligible population, 2nd dose, and 1 week for it to take affect.

Source: Israel's ministry of health https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general and wikipedia's population information https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel#Age_str...

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