Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works” • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#351

Post by xedeon » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:53 AM UTC

Arainach wrote: post #230

georgewfraser wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that it doesn’t fail in edge cases. It has very clear limitations, there are no surprises. Even if you were literally asleep at the wheel, the worst thing that would happen is it’d end up stopped in front of a traffic light, waiting for you to take over.

"very clear limitations" that users continue to ignore. Some of that is stupid users, some of that is users assuming that "autopilot" means more than it does because that term has already meant something for the last 40 years in our society - something that Tesla doesn't deliver on. Tesla's warnings to put your hands on the wheel are obviously insufficient based on regular videos of drivers asleep at the wheel on the…

> Tesla's warnings to put your hands on the wheel are obviously insufficient based on regular videos of drivers asleep at the wheel on the freeway

Every Tesla owner will tell you that those videos where people are "falling asleep" are staged.

Why? because if you don't acknowledge the warnings, it will turn on the hazards stop and disable autopilot for the rest of the drive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uw97Gx1lYw

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#352

Post by darawk » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:55 AM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #54

rcxdude wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This matches my experience of how Tesla is viewed in the autonomous car industry. No-one thinks they are a serious contender when it comes to a driverless vehicle (and their business model basically doesn't match with the technology either: every other company is basically going to operate a taxi service because there's far more value to be captured and it can help pay for the hardware making driverless possible)

it's interesting how optimistic long term visions conflict - if you really think autonomous cabs will become widespread then by implication you are also saying that car sales will be drastically lower. Tough to be serious betting on both. The math of "you'll pay more for the car but the car will go out and make money for you as a robotic Uber" sounds like a pyramid scheme to me; if too many people do it, it can no lo…

Not if you keep the tech. to yourself. Which is why you would do a robotic taxi. You avoid giving out the technology, and so you can charge a premium for your taxi service, while still undercutting traditional taxis.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#353

Post by mrtksn » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:55 AM UTC

xedeon wrote: post #332

mrtksn wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People die all the time, there are even higher profile cases like the Apple Engineer who slammed in the barriers at full speed: https://www.kqed.org/news/11801138/apple-engineer-killed-in-... There are some spectacular failures that are very scary because the car does something that a person would never do, unless unconscious, like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfmAG4dk-rU You don't hear much about it pro…

That "Apple Engineer" was playing a video game on this cellphone according to NHTSA. But it's "rabid Tesla fans" you say? https://www.kqed.org/news/11803406/apple-engineer-killed-in-...

Yes, that's captured by the defences I listed above. You say that this is an autopilot, you make them purchase self driving capability package, you say that the car comes with all the hardware necessary for self driving, you fans post videos online about cars driving themselves and in the small print you say that it's not autopilot but Autopilot and the drivers must pay attention all the time and you put very weak safeguards to enforce that attention.

It's simple plausible deniability for Tesla and the fanboys. Good enough to keep them off the hook, legally.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#354

Post by friendzis » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:56 AM UTC

jfim wrote: post #310

meekrohprocess wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have one question for Tesla customers who trust the company to deliver full FSD. How do you reconcile that belief with the fact that Tesla's embedded developers did not understand the extremely simple concept of write endurance? The NHTSA opened an investigation into premature HUD failures because they prevented the backup cameras from working. But the fact of the matter is, the company used a small partition of in…

> How do you reconcile that belief with the fact that Tesla's embedded developers did not understand the extremely simple concept of write endurance? That sounds more like the kind of situation where the software department said "we need to have a system that has X amount of storage" and the hardware department made the hardware for it, but there was some missing communication about endurance. It's likely not the sam…

Well it still speaks volumes about internal culture. Everyone on the team should know they are developing a safety-critical system/component. Yet, the Bob from software can write a sloppy spec and Alice from hardware can not care about the spec being sloppy. It is entirely baffling.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#355

Post by sidibe » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:57 AM UTC

anonytrary wrote: post #240

ranman wrote: post #231

While I’m all for being critical of TSLA’s FSD rollout I do think a bit of perspective is warranted: in the USA drivers are routinely drunk, distracted, or just plain stupid. Everyday day I get on the road and I’m forced to drive defensively because I cannot trust any car on the road to behave logically. How is that situation changed at all by having computers that don’t behave logically? There’s a huge confirmation…

> Go spend 10 minutes scrolling the /r/IdiotsInCars subreddit to get a feel for what I’m talking about. I don't think that is enough to form a conclusion. I have driven hundreds of thousands of miles and have yet to see an /r/IdiotsInCars moment. I think drivers are better than you think they are. If there are even just 10 recorded idiots a day, then that sub can be active and interesting every single day, but that d…

Oh they've got the data. I see it everywhere, Tesla has way less accidents per mile than us horrible human drivers. I don't know what it's based on because every few minutes of footage there's a scary moment on FSD beta videos which are produced by Tesla enthusiasts who have signed some form of NDA (no live stream allowed).

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#356

Post by sudosysgen » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:57 AM UTC

jfoster wrote: post #297

jayd16 wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. It's clear that lidar isn't literally needed. That said, I think the argument just shifts to "the cameras on a Tesla aren't good enough either." That's also just a shot from the hip, weasely sort of argument but it's harder to dismiss outright.

It's fairly easy to dismiss that argument; the cameras would not be difficult to replace if they are the limiting factor. Cameras are cheap.

The human eye has capabilites that you'd need a camera more expensive than a LiDAR by a good bit too replicate. No rolling shutter, very low delay, continuous signal processing instead of per-frame, maximum resolution around ~70MP eq. in the center, f/2.8 aperture at a full-frame image size, servo driven active rangefinding, continuous cleaning, etc...

A camera with those features would be around 3000-15000$, and you'd need two.

Also, the human brain can use focus information and stereo phase to deduce 3D structure, which is another ace up its sleeve.

It might very well be the case that reproducing this is more expensive in training, processing and material than LiDAR. In fact, I'd say it's very likely - we're talking loops that need to update hundreds of times a second and data rates in the gigabits, which our brains deal with by doing a lot of processing inside the eye and along the way.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#357

Post by xedeon » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:58 AM UTC

rainyMammoth wrote: post #146

georgewfraser wrote: post #116

I have a model Y and what it has today is 80% as useful as a completely self driving car. It’s mostly self driving on the highway, and the situations it can’t handle are very predictable: toll booths, stopped cars in the middle of the road, things like that. You need to available to drive but you always have plenty of warning before you need to take over.

Sounds like lane steering and adaptative cruise control on my 19k$ Toyota Corolla.

Love the snarkiness. But no. The cruise control in your Toyota Corolla can't quite do this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWS9jjhLYSM

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#358

Post by pmorici » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:58 AM UTC

meekrohprocess wrote: post #151

ra7 wrote: post #26

I think the FSD beta rollout is completely irresponsible from Tesla. Rolling out a clearly half-baked safety critical technology to its customers (yes, I know it's only a few beta testers) who are untrained is nothing but a tactic to generate hype and get more customers to buy that $10k FSD package. This is on top of Tesla being the least transparent company out there in reporting safety data or their testing methodo…

I have one question for Tesla customers who trust the company to deliver full FSD. How do you reconcile that belief with the fact that Tesla's embedded developers did not understand the extremely simple concept of write endurance? The NHTSA opened an investigation into premature HUD failures because they prevented the backup cameras from working. But the fact of the matter is, the company used a small partition of in…

The hud as you call it is not a safety critical part of the car in Teslas. You can reboot it while driving without effecting the car. The self driving computer is separate and has full redundancy to the point of having two processors running redundant code. There is a reason Tesla’s are consistently rated as the safest cars on the road with low probability of being involved in an accident and lowest probability of injury when an accident does happen.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#359

Post by GeorgeTirebiter » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:58 AM UTC

meekrohprocess wrote: post #151

ra7 wrote: post #26

I think the FSD beta rollout is completely irresponsible from Tesla. Rolling out a clearly half-baked safety critical technology to its customers (yes, I know it's only a few beta testers) who are untrained is nothing but a tactic to generate hype and get more customers to buy that $10k FSD package. This is on top of Tesla being the least transparent company out there in reporting safety data or their testing methodo…

I have one question for Tesla customers who trust the company to deliver full FSD. How do you reconcile that belief with the fact that Tesla's embedded developers did not understand the extremely simple concept of write endurance? The NHTSA opened an investigation into premature HUD failures because they prevented the backup cameras from working. But the fact of the matter is, the company used a small partition of in…

Tesla is organized functionally. The Infotainment Group did the Console electronics. The SW people there did GUIs and such. So yes between the electronics folks and the app folks 'somebody' didn't consider write cycles. In other Tesla groups, such as Body Controls, and Propulsion -- I can assure you those geeks know such things and plan to deal with funky hardware. The Autopilot group is again separate. There really isn't much crossover. "Systems" is unfortunately an unknown word at Tesla. You know, parts is parts.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#360

Post by s17n » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:58 AM UTC

paulryanrogers wrote: post #56

petters wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you aware how low the deaths per mile is for humans? I don't think we know if Waymo has a lower rate than a human yet. Tesla I don't know, but wouldn't be surprised if it is higher.

IIRC for humans it's like 1 death per million miles driven. I believe Waymo is closing in on that. Not sure if Waymo handles the variety of conditions though. Musk and Tesla seem very flippant in their marketing.

It’s one per 100 million.