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Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

theguardian.com

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Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#121

Post by pmorici »

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

Tesla put a bunch of their charging stations onto solar panels with battery backup and they have large batteries on trailers with chargers they deploy to meet demand during peak travel periods. In a world where everyone or a lot people have a home battery system with solar neither gas stations nor the electric grid will matter as much possibly not at all. Think about it this way. Is there a way for you to buy equipment to make your own gas from resources on your property? Is there equipment you can buy to generate your own electricity?

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#122

Post by overscore »

gnicholas wrote: post #72
vbezhenar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is easier and cheaper to keep 100 litres of gasoline for emergency which would allow to drive at least 1000 KM.

Though probably unwise (and possibly illegal) in many cases.

Where would it be illegal to store petrol? It might be unwise if you live in an apartment, but illegal?

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#123

Post by jeffreygoesto »

theshrike79 wrote: post #102
sircastor wrote: post #10

I’ll be interested to see the lifespan of EVs for “normal” people. I’ve got a 2012 Nissan LEAF we bought post-lease in 2015. I love it still, and don’t have any plans to replace it. The battery is not in great shape, but it gets me where I need to go. I am genuinely considering replacing the battery rather than buying another EV when the battery finally fails.

The only cars having actual battery issues so far are older Leafs (shit thermal management for the battery) and Priuses (they're just old). No other EV has had major battery issues yet, so there really hasn't been time to develop a viable 3rd party battery replacement industry. Even the actual car manufacturers tend to quote insane prices for full battery replacements because they really don't have a process in place…

"just old" applies to the battery technology used when they were built. Not to "a car" in general. It is totally uneconomic to scrap a car only because one part broke. I own a car from 1978 that is in very good shape (for some minimal maintenance cost, you should not just let it rot).

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#124

Post by kstenerud »

missedthecue wrote: post #110
theshrike79 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a country lead by engineers with unlimited power to do whatever they want. If they want all cars to be electric, that will happen. If they want a 5 million person city just there because it's logistically advantageous, then that will happen. The good thing is that they can make decisions like this. The bad thing is that they can make decisions like this.

Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.

Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed.

It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due.

Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becoming as self-serving as kingdoms and monopolies. The bigger it is, the worse it gets and the sooner it gets there.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#125

Post by theshrike79 »

chovybizzass wrote: post #4

I am going to buy a new car soon and I think it will be the last time gasoline will be available for me. I'm going 4x4 so there's not much EV options.

Depends on the type of 4x4 you want.

If you're looking for the "I can go EVERYWHERE" type, then your options are a bit limited at the moment (Rivian, Cybertruck, Bollinger).

For regular "I want better traction and pull a trailer" 4x4 you've got a bunch of options, mostly PHEV though.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#126

Post by m463 »

magicalhippo wrote: post #24
CameronNemo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the replacement battery will have better tech!

AFAIK the main problem with the Leaf battery is that it doesn't have active thermal management[1]. I guess it's possible one could make a replacement battery pack which has an internal cooling loop, but it would be quite limited in how much heat it could get rid of through the battery case body without external radiators. Of course better batteries might heat up less when used or charged, due to lower internal resist…

ha, not really.

The main problem(s) with the leaf are

- it charges to 100% every time (unless you dig into a menu, turn on analytics and switch to 80%) I never knew a leaf driver that figured this out.

- the battery size is very small, so you need a full charge to get anywhere reliably and/or drain it very low.

- to put any kind of mileage on the car, you need to cycle the battery MANY times. (one cycle might be a day's driving on the leaf, but one cycle on a tesla is a week's driving or more)

I think the leaf would be a perfect car with up to 20 miles of daily driving.

(I owned the same car as OP)

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#127

Post by adrianN »

dawnerd wrote: post #93
r00fus wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An EV inverter for $200 can allow your car to power your refrigerator + router/phone/laptops for many hours (days for a LR Tesla).

A powerwall has what, 12ish KW usable (less in reality) which a single one can power a house for for up to a day if you're careful about what you're using. If you scale that up to the 75KW+ batteries being put into EVs today buying an inverter could be a good investment if you live in an area with frequent power outages (or a cabin or whatnot). There was also some talk about Teslas being able to send power back to th…

My two person household uses maybe two kWh per day.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#128

Post by nindalf »

ido wrote: post #98
erikstarck wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that growth rate continues, electric cars will pass 50% sold in 8 years. Going to be an interesting decade.

That would be great but high % growth from a small base doesn't imply the same growth rate will continue once it reaches higher levels (see for example how undeveloped economies grow faster until they become developed, at which point growth slows down: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence_(economics) )

In general, what you’re saying about growth rates is true. However, there’s reason to believe that electric cars could grow at that pace

1. Regulation by governments. A few states and countries are mandating zero emissions (ie electric) vehicles by 2035.

2. Car manufacturer strategy. Since they know they can’t sell ICE vehicles past 2035 in some jurisdictions, it’s better to make the transition to electric quicker. Audi, for example, doesn’t plan to refresh its ICE vehicles past 2023. Even if you wanted to buy a new ICE Audi in 2025, you couldn’t.

3. Prices for consumers. The increase in manufacturing volumes of batteries will make them cheaper. They’ve dropped 20% per year over the last decade thanks to increased volumes. In a few years, the sticker price on electric vehicles will become lower without any subsidies. Their total cost of ownership is already lower. This will further increase growth.

4. Charging infrastructure. Currently the second biggest stumbling block (after sticker price). It’s not economically feasible to build charging networks or infra in apartment complexes when electric vehicles are niche. But as they grow in popularity, it becomes more viable, further increasing their popularity.

So yes, normally you can’t expect growth like this to last. But it possibly will because the attractiveness of electric cars increases in proportion to their popularity.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#129

Post by pmorici »

ido wrote: post #105
millstone wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait really? I live in NorCal, I lost power twice last week. That was unusual, but PG&E's safety outages are a fact of life of living in California. That said I also remember a hurricane (Harvey?) which shut down refineries, making gasoline scarce. So it's pick your poison.

PG&E's safety outages are a fact of life of living in California Is this due to natural disaster risk or lack of maintenance for infrastructure? I've lived in Austria & Germany for 15 years now and only once experienced a power outage (I think it lasted about 15 minutes).

It’s because their electric grid equipment has been the source of ignition for wild fires in the past and the state fined them for causing fires which in part drove them into bankruptcy last year. So to avoid fines they cut off power whenever conditions make fires likely. Their poor financial management over decades is also likely responsible for poor equipment maintenance which increases likelihood of equipment causing fires.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#130

Post by adrianN »

jjav wrote: post #96
nic-waller wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easier to set up back yard solar panels than a back yard fuel refinery.

> It's easier to set up back yard solar panels than a back yard fuel refinery. If you have lot of open space with sun exposure, true. For the average small yard, it's easier to buy a 55gal drum of gasoline and a manual pump if you can anticipate the need. Growing up in hurricane country, it's something some people did. Buy a drum in the summer and store it. If it wasn't needed, just use it up after November (end of h…

You probably have a roof that doesn't have solar panels yet.
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