Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#101

Post by jjav » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:22 AM UTC

bradlys wrote: post #40

anonuser123456 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have lived in SoCal for 22 adult years. I’ve lost power maybe 3 times, and for at most 6 hours. A Tesla should have enough range for a few days commute w/out recharge. I don’t think power reliability should be a concern... except for when the big one strikes. But in that case all the freeway overpasses will collapse, so an ICE car won’t help you anyway.

Sure but PG&E wasn't doing these outages 10 years ago as much as it is now. In the Bay Area, it's regularly an occurrence where people in the Santa Cruz Mountains will not have power for 2 days to a week. With little to no notice too. You come home with a low battery to refill it at home, you might not be able to get very far. Hopefully you just drive with 50+ miles ready all the time.

Later this week I'd expect multiple areas in the Santa Cruz Mountains to lose power (from the coming storm). It's very common, happens multiple times per year (fires, winds, rains can all cause it). Sometimes it's just a day, sometimes many more.

Unless I someday get to live somewhere with a very substantial solar system, I won't ever be with only an electric car. Grid-delivered electricity isn't reliable enough to bet on.

And consider storms like hurricanes Irma and Maria which left many areas of the Caribbean without power for multiple months.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#102

Post by theshrike79 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:24 AM UTC

sircastor wrote: post #10

I’ll be interested to see the lifespan of EVs for “normal” people. I’ve got a 2012 Nissan LEAF we bought post-lease in 2015. I love it still, and don’t have any plans to replace it. The battery is not in great shape, but it gets me where I need to go. I am genuinely considering replacing the battery rather than buying another EV when the battery finally fails.

The only cars having actual battery issues so far are older Leafs (shit thermal management for the battery) and Priuses (they're just old).

No other EV has had major battery issues yet, so there really hasn't been time to develop a viable 3rd party battery replacement industry.

Even the actual car manufacturers tend to quote insane prices for full battery replacements because they really don't have a process in place on how to handle it yet.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#103

Post by fiddlerwoaroof » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:24 AM UTC

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

I have SCE, but I just keep my Model 3 plugged in when I’m not driving, and it’s always at 90% when I need it: it’s better than gas, because home charging means I don’t have to remember to keep my tank full for emergencies.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#104

Post by ip26 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:25 AM UTC

natch wrote: post #78

chovybizzass wrote: post #4

I am going to buy a new car soon and I think it will be the last time gasoline will be available for me. I'm going 4x4 so there's not much EV options.

Are you claiming that EVs don’t have AWD? My car begs to differ. Or...? Sorry I’m not versed on the finer points of 4x4 versus 4WD versus AWD terminology so maybe it’s me that’s confused, feel free to fill me in.

4x4 mechanically locks the front and rear axles together. Valuable vs AWD for driving in very low traction conditions like sand, mud, deep snow. Should not be engaged on dry pavement. AWD dynamically routes power and is always on.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#105

Post by ido » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:25 AM UTC

millstone wrote: post #41

anonuser123456 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have lived in SoCal for 22 adult years. I’ve lost power maybe 3 times, and for at most 6 hours. A Tesla should have enough range for a few days commute w/out recharge. I don’t think power reliability should be a concern... except for when the big one strikes. But in that case all the freeway overpasses will collapse, so an ICE car won’t help you anyway.

Wait really? I live in NorCal, I lost power twice last week. That was unusual, but PG&E's safety outages are a fact of life of living in California. That said I also remember a hurricane (Harvey?) which shut down refineries, making gasoline scarce. So it's pick your poison.

    PG&E's safety outages are a fact of life of living in California

Is this due to natural disaster risk or lack of maintenance for infrastructure? I've lived in Austria & Germany for 15 years now and only once experienced a power outage (I think it lasted about 15 minutes).

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#106

Post by jjav » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:25 AM UTC

extrapickles wrote: post #29

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

I only charge my car once a week, as it has almost exactly the same range as my old gasoline car (~300 miles). So if there is going to be a bad storm in the forecast, I will top it up, just like a gasoline car. If the outage is extended, there are plenty of DC fast chargers near enough to me that its unlikely that both me and them would face an extended outage, just like how in a gas car you might have to drive a few…

If the outage is caused by something large enough for it to last a longer time, it's very likely any charging stations near you are also out.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#107

Post by 2Gkashmiri » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:28 AM UTC

i bought an electric two wheeler, a "low power" one for a grant total of USD 835 in indian rupees last year. since then the petrol prices have gone up by 15-20%. my previous vehicle was bought in 2016 for same price. i sold it and got half my money. had to pay 400 in cash. since then minor maintenance which is basically free so for the last year i have saved almost $250-290. in 1 year. in this year i will get my 400 back in savings and after that for the next 3 years i will "earn" out of driving.

note: i have grid tied 5KWH solar system at home so electricity costs are zero

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#108

Post by oblio » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:28 AM UTC

erikstarck wrote: post #59

danielheath wrote: post #11

Up 43% is great news. To put it in context: There were 91 million cars produced last year (per wikipedia) and 3 million electric cars sold.

If that growth rate continues, electric cars will pass 50% sold in 8 years. Going to be an interesting decade.

https://xkcd.com/1102/

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#109

Post by ip26 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:28 AM UTC

sircastor wrote: post #10

I’ll be interested to see the lifespan of EVs for “normal” people. I’ve got a 2012 Nissan LEAF we bought post-lease in 2015. I love it still, and don’t have any plans to replace it. The battery is not in great shape, but it gets me where I need to go. I am genuinely considering replacing the battery rather than buying another EV when the battery finally fails.

I think it will be really interesting to see what the residual value of the old battery will be. Could be really high- 50% original capacity is a problem for cars but not for grid storage (if the price reflects remaining capacity)

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#110

Post by missedthecue » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 7:28 AM UTC

theshrike79 wrote: post #100

godmode2019 wrote: post #81

'Global sales' I hope everyone understands in China it is very hard to get a licence plate, the government allows you to get a licence plate if you buy a heavily subsidised electric car. The aim is to stimulate demand to develop an industry. Large cities also banned motorbikes and scooters, with the same aim. This is no way market driven demand, BYD is a very interesting company to look into. It is my understanding t…

China is a country lead by engineers with unlimited power to do whatever they want. If they want all cars to be electric, that will happen. If they want a 5 million person city just there because it's logistically advantageous, then that will happen. The good thing is that they can make decisions like this. The bad thing is that they can make decisions like this.

Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.