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At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.
...or, at least halfway there (both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses). One dose is probably already somewhat useful, but how useful is not super-well characterized. Still, it's a lot more than a month ago.
That gives us a timeline of more than 1 year at current rate to vaccinate the entire US. Even vaccinating 70% the population will take roughly a year at current pace.
Puts things in some perspective.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Immunized, not vaccinated. In particular, patients who have recovered from COVID-19 are (mostly) immune and count towards "herd immunity". (Obviously vaccination is by far the preferable of those two options!)
You’re not wrong, but the right people cannot profit or accumulate power via the spread of natural immunity, and not at all coincidentally it is unpopular to mention. “But the risk is far too great not to pay trillions and surrender our freedom,” retorts a frightened chorus of people.
Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.
Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions. [1]
So no. The concept of defeating COVID by relying on a "natural herd immunity" is a bad idea on all fronts.
[1] https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i...
I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increases with age. We also have a good idea of the kinds of preexisting conditions put you most at risk. We have already been targeting health care professionals (increases health care capacity) and people over 65 (the majority of the at-risk population). If we are a…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
.7 * 331m =~ 231m. If we average 1 million per day, we have 231 days to go, which is Aug 25th.
That's single dose, so you gotta double it. And account for like 40% of the country that are not sure if the pandemic is real and/or if the vaccine is designed to have Bill Gates track them. And the fact that kids can't get it yet (and who knows when we will know), which would severely slow things down. Right now we are production-constrained, and somewhat distribution constrained since every state is handling it dif…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You’re not wrong, but the right people cannot profit or accumulate power via the spread of natural immunity, and not at all coincidentally it is unpopular to mention. “But the risk is far too great not to pay trillions and surrender our freedom,” retorts a frightened chorus of people.
It's probably more along the lines of us not being able to correctly guess who has recovered from CoVID because most people are asymptomatic.
[0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-co...
At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.
A lot of Americans have already stopped complying with public health recommendations. Or they never put on a mask to begin with. It's like a teacher who tells a class to line up so they can be dismissed but someone doesn't go along and drags out the whole process.
At what number can we stop wearing masks, stop social distancing, start dining in, etc.? That's the number I care about. Because until somebody influential picks that number, we'll just keep masking and social distancing until the end of time.
In a high profile case Dave Ramsey had a holiday party and told employees to not wear masks .
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/caterers-finance-guru-d...
https://www.zq1.de/~bernhard/images/share/mRNA-1273-trial.pn...
I think this pretty much says it all.
