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Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

arstechnica.com

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Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#141

Post by sixQuarks »

vegannet wrote: post #106
sixQuarks wrote: post #90

Anyone wanna bet me that Tesla will be first to full level 5 self driving? Seems to be a lot of anti-Tesla folks here, put your money where your mouth is.

I’ll take that bet. How much? I’m not anti-Tesla but I do see Tesla as a brand more than a technology company: good for business but not good good for breaking new ground with technology — I’d put a lot against Tesla on that bet (I don’t think it matters for the business much though).

I say we do $1,000, but what did you have in mind? We will have to put the bets in escrow

We need to agree to what constitutes full level 5 self driving.

My interpretation of it is a car that can drive itself anywhere in the world, has been approved for commercial use in at least one country, AND recognized as the first to full self driving in at least 2 major publications.

We can put a 5 year time limit on the bet.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#142

Post by Judgmentality »

mrtksn wrote: post #23
granzymes wrote: post #3

drivers came to trust it way too quickly. Drivers who were supposed to be closely monitoring the system instead spent their time looking at their phones, putting on makeup, and other distractions. Really hope no one dies because of Tesla's autopilot. This is a real risk. Quoting from below: if the car does it right 99% of the time it's just human nature to stop paying attention. The article makes a great point that s…

People die all the time, there are even higher profile cases like the Apple Engineer who slammed in the barriers at full speed: https://www.kqed.org/news/11801138/apple-engineer-killed-in-... There are some spectacular failures that are very scary because the car does something that a person would never do, unless unconscious, like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfmAG4dk-rU You don't hear much about it pro…

I'm surprised you don't just link to the source that regularly updates itself on all Tesla deaths, and makes a point to cite its sources. Note this is not just for Autopilot, but all deaths occuring from Tesla vehicles (including people not in the vehicles). There are tags for various things like "Autopilot" and "Pedestrian/cyclist"

https://www.tesladeaths.com/

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#143

Post by jiofih »

paul7986 wrote: post #52

Im anti-robot car ... so many ppl will die for progress with this. I'm even more after my friend's Jeep Compass's AI system decided to lock up her brakes and steering wheel as she was turning into the bathroom area after the Golden Gate Bridge. The AI said nope im taking over your going to crash and thus you cant maneuver your way out of hitting the highway wall which she did and total that piece of junk; all bruised…

I would bet quite confidently that your friend would not have been able to avoid a crash, and the “AI” is just a convenient third party to blame. You need to be at a speed way above recommended for an exit, to trigger the anti-collision system, and actually sustain injuries. Humans tend to overestimate their abilities quite strongly, especially in hindsight.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#144

Post by dragonwriter »

mxschumacher wrote: post #73
rcxdude wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, exactly. I did a fairly deep dive into what path the car industry is going to take with respect to electric cars (especially what a mass market electric car is going to look like), and it all had a huge asterisk associated with it of "but mass car ownership might stop being a thing before any of this happens", at which point thing change drasticly, because then you have a much smaller market of probably more sp…

I should probably dig a little more into the microeconomics, but for me as a consumer the only difference between an autonomous car and an (human) Uber is price. If we assume that the price of the car stays the same, insurance and fuel still have to be paid and the cab app gets their cut - how much of my ride is really attributable to the cost of the human driver? So how much human labor can be automated away to the…

> Drivers also often do more than merely drive - they help with the luggage, they clean the car, they can talk about their city.

They commit sexual assault, submit fraudulent reports of rider damages, ...

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#145

Post by SkyPuncher »

ashtonkem wrote: post #132
diebeforei485 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the systems in other vehicles have the same pitfalls as any driver-assistance system and have the same driver behavior risks as Tesla's system.

They’re also designed and marketed very differently. The lane keeping in my Subaru isn’t good enough for me to fully trust it, so I monitor it carefully. I suspect that there’s probably a local minimum for safety, where the autopilot is good enough to lull users into complacency, but not good enough to actually be safe.

> The lane keeping in my Subaru isn’t good enough for me to fully trust it, so I monitor it carefully.

We have a Hyundai Palisade with Adaptive Cruise Control and Lane Keep assist. Amazing for reducing fatigue (the small little corrections). Not good enough to let you get distracted. I always have to be mentally ready to hop in.

I think it's a perfect solution until we have true FSD that can handle absolutely all conditions and situations.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#146

Post by rainyMammoth »

georgewfraser wrote: post #116

I have a model Y and what it has today is 80% as useful as a completely self driving car. It’s mostly self driving on the highway, and the situations it can’t handle are very predictable: toll booths, stopped cars in the middle of the road, things like that. You need to available to drive but you always have plenty of warning before you need to take over.

Sounds like lane steering and adaptative cruise control on my 19k$ Toyota Corolla.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#147

Post by threeseed »

justapassenger wrote: post #60
ra7 wrote: post #26

I think the FSD beta rollout is completely irresponsible from Tesla. Rolling out a clearly half-baked safety critical technology to its customers (yes, I know it's only a few beta testers) who are untrained is nothing but a tactic to generate hype and get more customers to buy that $10k FSD package. This is on top of Tesla being the least transparent company out there in reporting safety data or their testing methodo…

FSD rollout is purely driven by Elon’s ego. He’s addicted to fame and power, and that comes from image he created of himself being an Iron Man. I’m pretty sure he got to a point where he believes in it, and thinks he’s invincible and can solve any problem, because he’s so much smarter than everyone. Stock bubble making wealthiest man only helped to solidify that.

He also personally received an obscenely large windfall as a result of this strategy.

Debatable how significant this impacts his decision making but it's pretty hard to argue that doesn't impact it at least a little.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#148

Post by diebeforei485 »

ashtonkem wrote: post #132
diebeforei485 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the systems in other vehicles have the same pitfalls as any driver-assistance system and have the same driver behavior risks as Tesla's system.

They’re also designed and marketed very differently. The lane keeping in my Subaru isn’t good enough for me to fully trust it, so I monitor it carefully. I suspect that there’s probably a local minimum for safety, where the autopilot is good enough to lull users into complacency, but not good enough to actually be safe.

> The lane keeping in my Subaru isn’t good enough for me to fully trust it, so I monitor it carefully.

Basically everyone with a Tesla says the same thing.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#149

Post by brownbat »

mrtksn wrote: post #23
granzymes wrote: post #3

drivers came to trust it way too quickly. Drivers who were supposed to be closely monitoring the system instead spent their time looking at their phones, putting on makeup, and other distractions. Really hope no one dies because of Tesla's autopilot. This is a real risk. Quoting from below: if the car does it right 99% of the time it's just human nature to stop paying attention. The article makes a great point that s…

People die all the time, there are even higher profile cases like the Apple Engineer who slammed in the barriers at full speed: https://www.kqed.org/news/11801138/apple-engineer-killed-in-... There are some spectacular failures that are very scary because the car does something that a person would never do, unless unconscious, like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfmAG4dk-rU You don't hear much about it pro…

I'm optimistic for this area of tech and research in general, but agree we need to stop benchmarking against average human crash rates.

Although anyone can be hit at any time, the distribution of human crashes is not purely random. People who drive compromised, for example, are way overrepresented in those events.

So, theoretically, the tech could get to a point with a lower than expected crash rate for humans generally, but still increase your personal crash likelihood.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#150

Post by repsilat »

xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: post #100
justapassenger wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD rollout is purely driven by Elon’s ego. He’s addicted to fame and power, and that comes from image he created of himself being an Iron Man. I’m pretty sure he got to a point where he believes in it, and thinks he’s invincible and can solve any problem, because he’s so much smarter than everyone. Stock bubble making wealthiest man only helped to solidify that.

He didn't create that image on his own. He had a lot of help. He had a cameo in Iron Man 2 where Iron Man treated him as a peer! (That scene, by the way, is a perfect example of why I hate superhero movies.)

Kinda weird comment. Not that it matters, but in the scene Iron Man brushed Elon off -- He was "politely rude", and the scene (while serving as an ad for Elon) served the film by giving cred to Stark by having Elon fawn over him.

More importantly though, treating someone "as a peer" is kinda a weird criticism? Superheros on TV these days don't seem terribly stuck-up. When other characters in the films seem honest the heroes usually treat them with respect and dignity.

Anyway, thanks for the heads-up that you hate superhero movies, will keep it in mind next time I see one on a plane.

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