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Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

arstechnica.com

41–50 of 581 posts

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#41
post #24

Is anyone else confused on the merits of Waymo's argument? They differentiate "driver assistance" from "fully autonomous" systems in that Tesla somehow can never achieve the latter because they have developed the former. The only specific reason for this that I could find was a mention of LiDAR and how Waymo sees it as indispensable. > Krafcik says that Waymo has largely completed technical work on its self-driving s…

A full discussion on this would require an article several times as long as this one as well as some understanding of how vehicle control systems work. I do a fair amount of work with OEMs in this space and to summarize it in a horribly short way:

1) A system that relies primarily on cameras is necessarily limited by camera constraints. No, just because humans primarily rely on vision does not mean an ML model with cameras can do the same and achieve the same results in situations as complex as urban driving.

2) Every major player other than Tesla in this space spends a huge amount of time architecting an entire computing, data exchange, and control platform for autonomous vehicles that is bulky by necessity, but far more robust both in terms of sensor capabilities and ability to cross-check between data inputs to decide what control signals to send. Tesla basically added some cameras and low-resolution radar (they're improving the radar now, but it sure as hell wasn't in the platform they originally promised was FSD-ready) and is hoping it will be enough when everyone else studied the capabilities years ago and decided it wasn't.

To summarize, what Tesla has built is a platform with capabilities that very strongly seem to be limited to Level 3 automation, while engineers working on Level 4 long ago concluded that the Tesla approach is insufficient, and then adjusted their own hardware and software strategies accordingly.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#42

Tesla is quite far from full self driving. They have too much phantom breaking on the simple adaptive cruise control in good conditions.

Phantom braking and similar issues are a full stop for me, no pun intended. That just seems fantastically dangerous given that so many drivers don’t pay much attention when they don’t expect you to brake. Seems like a recipe for full speed rear end collisions.

Tesla may make this stuff work eventually but it doesn’t seem safe at the moment and you can count me out.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#43

drivers came to trust it way too quickly. Drivers who were supposed to be closely monitoring the system instead spent their time looking at their phones, putting on makeup, and other distractions. Really hope no one dies because of Tesla's autopilot. This is a real risk. Quoting from below: if the car does it right 99% of the time it's just human nature to stop paying attention. The article makes a great point that s…

It's bound to happen, but also likely to be the result of the driver not paying attention.

coffee cups say "be careful this is hot", but the regulator allows a product called "Full Self Driving" to be sold - I think ultimately consumer protection will step in here like it has in Germany [0]

0: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-autopilot-germany/g...

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#44

drivers came to trust it way too quickly. Drivers who were supposed to be closely monitoring the system instead spent their time looking at their phones, putting on makeup, and other distractions. Really hope no one dies because of Tesla's autopilot. This is a real risk. Quoting from below: if the car does it right 99% of the time it's just human nature to stop paying attention. The article makes a great point that s…

People can die. Honestly in my opinion it’s worth it. Will it happen to me? No, because I’m extra cautious and won’t slack off but to make progress quickly these things must be done. If you really want to be hyper cautious, you can always make the case that it’s saving lives that would otherwise be lost.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#45
post #23

drivers came to trust it way too quickly. Drivers who were supposed to be closely monitoring the system instead spent their time looking at their phones, putting on makeup, and other distractions. Really hope no one dies because of Tesla's autopilot. This is a real risk. Quoting from below: if the car does it right 99% of the time it's just human nature to stop paying attention. The article makes a great point that s…

People die all the time, there are even higher profile cases like the Apple Engineer who slammed in the barriers at full speed: https://www.kqed.org/news/11801138/apple-engineer-killed-in-... There are some spectacular failures that are very scary because the car does something that a person would never do, unless unconscious, like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfmAG4dk-rU You don't hear much about it pro…

A lidar would have discovered that truck immediately.

Is is confirmed that this Tesla was using self-driving?

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#46
post #35

I worked with a self-driving product team a couple of years ago. Tesla's approach was looked upon with suspicion and often openly mocked. Tesla's entire self-driving strategy is led by Karpathy, who while brilliant, is an under-experienced researcher with a narrow expertise in large scale 2D CNNs. Tesla (and Comma.ai ?) seem to be the only groups that find Lidar unnecessary for L5 self-driving. I completely agree wit…

This matches my experience of how Tesla is viewed in the autonomous car industry. No-one thinks they are a serious contender when it comes to a driverless vehicle (and their business model basically doesn't match with the technology either: every other company is basically going to operate a taxi service because there's far more value to be captured and it can help pay for the hardware making driverless possible)

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#47
post #28

another baseless musk bashing. Waymo doesn't have nearly as much data as Tesla. They're not playing in the same category.

Ah yes, the "more data will magically solve self driving" argument.

More data makes it easier to train and evaluate systems but will not fix an inadequate approach.

Humans can drive with vision alone because humans are way way smarter than glorified regression models. We have a higher order model of what is happening. I am skeptical that you can replicate this with current AI. The approach of using LIDAR to compensate for dumber AI with more and better data seems more sound.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#48
post #28

another baseless musk bashing. Waymo doesn't have nearly as much data as Tesla. They're not playing in the same category.

Ah yes, the "more data will magically solve self driving" argument.

also Google being short on data given they've been working on this problem for 12 years is a pretty poor argument. If anything, it should tell us how are the problem of self-driving really is.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#49

drivers came to trust it way too quickly. Drivers who were supposed to be closely monitoring the system instead spent their time looking at their phones, putting on makeup, and other distractions. Really hope no one dies because of Tesla's autopilot. This is a real risk. Quoting from below: if the car does it right 99% of the time it's just human nature to stop paying attention. The article makes a great point that s…

I mean people have already died sleeping with it on. But it’s also likely saved lives based on their deaths per mile number.

Are you aware how low the deaths per mile is for humans?

I don't think we know if Waymo has a lower rate than a human yet. Tesla I don't know, but wouldn't be surprised if it is higher.

Re: Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”

#50
post #28

another baseless musk bashing. Waymo doesn't have nearly as much data as Tesla. They're not playing in the same category.

Ah yes, the "more data will magically solve self driving" argument.

He didn't say that. You're putting words in his "mouth."
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