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Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

bbc.com

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Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#211

Post by rayiner »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #203
rayiner wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're on the path to a 4C world by something like 2100. An increase by that much might possibly wipe out the species. That is absolutely not what scientists and economists are predicting. An RCP 8.5 scenario (which is considered on the worse side of what's likely in a "do nothing" world) is expected to knock 6.7-14.3% of US GDP by 2100: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019102... (p. 7). That wo…

All of the RCP scenarios assume large scale carbon capture and storage, a technology we have no pathway to scaling. None of the RCP scenarios consider potential positive feed back loops. This is understandable because from a climate modeling perspective these are complex and involve a lot of uncertainty/unknowns. However historical evidence suggests that in all mass extinction events involving rapid increase in atmos…

No, all the scenarios do not assume carbon capture and storage. The RCP 8.5 scenario is actually a high emissions scenario that experts think overestimates carbon emissions given existing trends.

As to the other point, the IPCC has studied the possibility of positive feedback loops and has concluded they’re unlikely.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#212

Post by saagarjha »

Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #91
whimsicalism wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear, you're saying you would rather have one more year of lockdown than get the virus? And your girlfriend would rather have 3 years? For me, 0 - the reason I lockdown is out concern for others, I am not personally worried of the impact Covid would have on me.

For my part, the reason I oppose the lockdowns is out of concern for others: by the time the restrictions are over in the EU, young people will have been prevented for about two years from doing all kinds of traditional coming of age rituals, courtship opportunities, etc. And if European countries isolating themselves leads to a new wave of nationalism and lessened cooperation with neighbors, it is their generation w…

I'm 21; I can survive not seeing people physically for a year or two. If I don't…well, there are people who are actually going to die.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#213

Post by Retric »

saagarjha wrote: post #194
29athrowaway wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In ecological terms, we are an invasive species without a predator multiplying exponentially. We either accept reality and live and adapt to the limits imposed by nature or prepare to live in permanent war for resources.

Humans tend to stop multiplying exponentially, though.

So do rats with abundant food in an enclosed environment, it doesn’t end well. https://www.gwern.net/docs/sociology/1962-calhoun.pdf

Which isn’t to say the same rules apply to humans, but it’s also critical to get this right.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#215

Post by swader999 »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #203
rayiner wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're on the path to a 4C world by something like 2100. An increase by that much might possibly wipe out the species. That is absolutely not what scientists and economists are predicting. An RCP 8.5 scenario (which is considered on the worse side of what's likely in a "do nothing" world) is expected to knock 6.7-14.3% of US GDP by 2100: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019102... (p. 7). That wo…

All of the RCP scenarios assume large scale carbon capture and storage, a technology we have no pathway to scaling. None of the RCP scenarios consider potential positive feed back loops. This is understandable because from a climate modeling perspective these are complex and involve a lot of uncertainty/unknowns. However historical evidence suggests that in all mass extinction events involving rapid increase in atmos…

This is how we winhttps://patents.google.com/patent/US7379286B2/en

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#216

Post by saagarjha »

Retric wrote: post #213
saagarjha wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans tend to stop multiplying exponentially, though.

So do rats with abundant food in an enclosed environment, it doesn’t end well. https://www.gwern.net/docs/sociology/1962-calhoun.pdf Which isn’t to say the same rules apply to humans, but it’s also critical to get this right.

I think that most modern countries are doing a reasonable job.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#217

Post by zhouyisu »

Retric wrote: post #213
saagarjha wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans tend to stop multiplying exponentially, though.

So do rats with abundant food in an enclosed environment, it doesn’t end well. https://www.gwern.net/docs/sociology/1962-calhoun.pdf Which isn’t to say the same rules apply to humans, but it’s also critical to get this right.

Too many differences.

No awareness; No knowledge; No government; No communication; No money; No faith.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#218

Post by adrianN »

just_steve_h wrote: post #70

The biggest takeaway here for me is that we collectively achieved something previously considered impossible: by making different behavioral choices, as a species, we achieved the largest cut in CO2 emissions in 75 years. It's tragic that only the threat of a deadly disease could compel such a change, but perhaps we may find other levers to help us achieve such widespread beneficial changes in the future?

I suspect that we would have had a bigger impact on the climate if we took all the money the governments printed as stimulus and built wind turbines and solar panels with it, or insulated buildings and installed heat pumps.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#219

Post by baron_harkonnen »

saagarjha wrote: post #194
29athrowaway wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In ecological terms, we are an invasive species without a predator multiplying exponentially. We either accept reality and live and adapt to the limits imposed by nature or prepare to live in permanent war for resources.

Humans tend to stop multiplying exponentially, though.

You should spend some time researching the estimated carrying capacity of the Earth for humans without fossil fuels.

Last I check most agreements were around 1 billion people. We’ve artificially bumped that up with an unsustainable energy source that we have no viable pathway for replacement.

It doesn’t matter if growth caps off soon, we’ve already exceeded the bounds. We’re in overtime now seeing how limited resources plays out.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#220

Post by djrogers »

just_steve_h wrote: post #70

The biggest takeaway here for me is that we collectively achieved something previously considered impossible: by making different behavioral choices, as a species, we achieved the largest cut in CO2 emissions in 75 years. It's tragic that only the threat of a deadly disease could compel such a change, but perhaps we may find other levers to help us achieve such widespread beneficial changes in the future?

It’s also tragic that the changes we made cost 20+ million jobs, and dramatically increased income inequality.
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