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Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

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Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#21

Post by savanaly »

StreamBright wrote: post #13
savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

Not really, there are very few climate related deaths. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-from-nat... I think more people die from diabetes and covid than climate.

When it comes to short term deaths (like could be measured right now or in the coming years) I think the bigger mechanism would be pollution which causes deaths from people with respiratory illnesses and such in major cities. Not so much in the US (although LA is a problem I think?) but definitely in China and India.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#22

Post by corty »

JimiofEden wrote: post #16
StreamBright wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, there are very few climate related deaths. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-from-nat... I think more people die from diabetes and covid than climate.

There are CURRENTLY very few climate related deaths. The person you're responding to is wondering if more lives would be saved in the long run, maybe the next 1000 years.

If I refuse to mate with someone, I also killed a few thousand people over the next millenium. That doesn't mean I will loose any sleep over saying no to his proposition.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#23

Post by elmomle »

StreamBright wrote: post #13
savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

Not really, there are very few climate related deaths. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-from-nat... I think more people die from diabetes and covid than climate.

It isn't only climate change. Ambient air pollution causes >4 million deaths per year, per the WHO: https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollution#tab=tab_1

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#24

Post by throwaway0a5e »

kristopolous wrote: post #14
cblconfederate wrote: post #6

Yeah but people already miss being stuck in traffic and their daily commute so it's not going to last

I've heard people actually say this. The horror, the horror.

For a lot of people it was their only alone time.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#25

Post by citilife »

savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

> Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change?

Climate change wont directly lead to death, we'll have to adapt, but there are models showing more food produced from climate change. Simply put, we don't know what potentially will happen. We highly suspect there are 150 thousand increase in death from disease due to climate change[2]

In contrast... there are 135 - 270 MILLION people on the verge of starvation now; due to the policies around covid (or >2% of the worlds population).

> “marching towards starvation” spiking from 135 million to 270 million as the pandemic unfolded. He stressed that 2021 will be catastrophic [2]

BTW these people are still getting covid too, lockdowns slowed the spread, didn't stop it. Most American's have already gotten the disease (estimates are that 10x the number of people have gotten it over the tests[3]). Given 25 million have tested positive, by the prior estimates, that means a likely 250 million Americans have already gotten covid [4].

[1] https://www.who.int/heli/risks/climate/climatechange/en/

[2] https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/ga12294.doc.htm

[3] https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-cases-deaths-...

[4] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#26

Post by bpodgursky »

savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

The Sars-cov-2 epidemic might easily kill more people in the developing world through food and economic insecurity than it kills from respiratory disease (esp given how young those countries are).

I don't think this is a particularly realistic take.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#27

Post by AtlasBarfed »

Recessions/Depressions have really been the only significant reduction in GHG emissions in recent history, the paper treaties have been pretty insignificant.

I won't say that the massive progress in alternative energy infrastructure buildout isn't blunting it as well, and the promise of EVs for alleviating transportation emissions, but the Mortgage Recession and the COVID recession have been the historically largest reductions emissions in recent history.

I have good faith that alt energy + EV will result in a massive improvement, but I wonder if it will be enough.

I guess what I'm saying is ... financial deck chair rearrangers, let's cook us up a steady diet of structural financial malfeasance.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#28

Post by blabus »

savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

I’ve had a similar thought regarding the 2020 presidential election. Had Trump and his administration properly handled the pandemic response (or never had to handle it in the first place) it’s quite likely he would’ve been re-elected. After having seen the events that transpired over the past month (to say nothing of the past four years) I can’t help but wonder if 400,000+ lives ended up being the cost to preserve democracy in the US.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#29

Post by fasteddie31003 »

remarkEon wrote: post #15
savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

I've had this thought, but it's a thought experiment that I kinda don't want to go engage in. I've also been wondering if the death toll in the US is so high because, well, Americans are just really unhealthy and overweight and that increased morbidity in a way that was unique in the world. Non-compliance with stay-at-home and mask wearing obviously didn't help, but I can't shake the feeling that the structural probl…

I actually love uncomfortable thought experiments. My recent one I've been asking my friends is how many years of the current lockdown would you trade with getting the virus and all the issues that go along with that but then being over the lockdown. My number is 1 more year of the current lockdown. My girlfriend's is 3 years.

Re: Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII

#30

Post by dragonwriter »

citilife wrote: post #25
savanaly wrote: post #10

Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? If that's true, we have to entertain the theory that the virus was purposefully initiated by a time-traveler charged with averting climate catastrophe through the only means possible.

> Is it possible that Sars-cov-2 epidemic will eventually save more lives than it cost, through the long term and short term effects of decreased pollution and climate change? Climate change wont directly lead to death, we'll have to adapt, but there are models showing more food produced from climate change. Simply put, we don't know what potentially will happen. We highly suspect there are 150 thousand increase in d…

> but there are models showing more food produced from climate change.

Total global food production hasn't been an issue in hunger in the modern era, so boosting it is immaterial in this context.

Moving it out of existing populated places that are already marginal and have litle export industry to purchase imports with, OTOH, will be disastrous, even if Russia and Canada get a huge boost in arable land.

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