Bit of an aside, but it's odd how convention forces the journal to pretend the patient is anonymous ("a 44-year-old man") despite all the other details making it blatantly obviously that it's Navalny. Of course, from a strictly medical point of view the name is irrelevant, but the context does matter: for example, the chronology of exactly how & when he was poisoned is still not entirely clear.
Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
21–30 of 55 posts
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#22It's odd to hold as an assumption that the Russian government is the only entity that can synthesize this molecule. It's also odd to take the word of "a laboratory of the German armed forces" as some sort of independent source in a clear political conflict.
It's not that odd if you consider that Germany is a democracy and Russia is a dictatorship with a history of poisoning dissenters.
Read the story about this mathematician who has been sentenced to prison for 6 years in Russia. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/01/22/imprisoned-for-his-e...
At some point, we have to use some sort of priors to evaluate the truth of claims from various sources.
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#23It's odd to hold as an assumption that the Russian government is the only entity that can synthesize this molecule. It's also odd to take the word of "a laboratory of the German armed forces" as some sort of independent source in a clear political conflict.
Do you have any evidence that other entities are using 'this molecule'?
As for being distrustful of Germany, well, you're of course free to make your own determinations there, as are everyone else that have been watching both nations. Personally, if one of Rainbow Vlad's minions told me the sky is blue, I'd have to double check.
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#24It's odd to hold as an assumption that the Russian government is the only entity that can synthesize this molecule. It's also odd to take the word of "a laboratory of the German armed forces" as some sort of independent source in a clear political conflict.
It's not that odd if you consider that Germany is a democracy and Russia is a dictatorship with a history of poisoning dissenters. Read the story about this mathematician who has been sentenced to prison for 6 years in Russia. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/01/22/imprisoned-for-his-e... At some point, we have to use some sort of priors to evaluate the truth of claims from various sources.
Security agencies of democratic regimes (that happen to be marginally accountable to the people elected) don't have the ability to synthesize known molecules and use them for political purposes? They don't have the ability to lie under the piercing eyes of lady liberty? That's sort of what they exist for.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/04/cia-director-used-fake...
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#25It's odd to hold as an assumption that the Russian government is the only entity that can synthesize this molecule. It's also odd to take the word of "a laboratory of the German armed forces" as some sort of independent source in a clear political conflict.
Do you have any evidence that other entities are using 'this molecule'? As for being distrustful of Germany, well, you're of course free to make your own determinations there, as are everyone else that have been watching both nations. Personally, if one of Rainbow Vlad's minions told me the sky is blue, I'd have to double check.
Sure, here's an example of the CIA flatly lying about a separate novichok incident.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/04/cia-director-used-fake...
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#26Bit of an aside, but it's odd how convention forces the journal to pretend the patient is anonymous ("a 44-year-old man") despite all the other details making it blatantly obviously that it's Navalny. Of course, from a strictly medical point of view the name is irrelevant, but the context does matter: for example, the chronology of exactly how & when he was poisoned is still not entirely clear.
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Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not that odd if you consider that Germany is a democracy and Russia is a dictatorship with a history of poisoning dissenters. Read the story about this mathematician who has been sentenced to prison for 6 years in Russia. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/01/22/imprisoned-for-his-e... At some point, we have to use some sort of priors to evaluate the truth of claims from various sources.
Security agencies of democratic regimes (that happen to be marginally accountable to the people elected) don't have the ability to synthesize known molecules and use them for political purposes? They don't have the ability to lie under the piercing eyes of lady liberty? That's sort of what they exist for. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/04/cia-director-used-fake...
If you ignore the evidence outside molecular signature yes, the “Moon of Alabama” hypothesis sounds plausible. Given the facts and circumstances, however, the conclusion becomes unavoidable.
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#28If Russia would like to kill people discretely, they would could use various other venom's and poisons. Ricin, for example. Russians use Novichok or Polonium because they are signature weapons that signal everyone that Russian intelligence agencies were involved. Polonium is FSB's signature. Novichok is chemical weapon in the hands of military, so G.U. (GRU).
Ricin is easily screened for. Novichok not so much until recently. Who knows how many people they had poisoned we don’t know about. Bellingcat research suggests that a lot. Polonium wouldn’t have been detected if not for some radiology expert who accidentally listened in on some side conversation
That was just one example.
My point is that there are not other users of Novichok and using Polonium is also extremely rare. Ricin is relatively easy to get. They continue using these techniques for high valued targets who are immediately tested for these two.
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Security agencies of democratic regimes (that happen to be marginally accountable to the people elected) don't have the ability to synthesize known molecules and use them for political purposes? They don't have the ability to lie under the piercing eyes of lady liberty? That's sort of what they exist for. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/04/cia-director-used-fake...
If you ignore the evidence outside molecular signature yes, the “Moon of Alabama” hypothesis sounds plausible. Given the facts and circumstances, however, the conclusion becomes unavoidable.
The circumstances are that an english-tweeting western-sponsored Yale World Fellow with approximately zero actual Russian support found himself "poisoned" (nonfatally, of course) in a way politically useful to the west in their ongoing project of destabilizing Russia, as diagnosed by western security services.
Re: Novichok Nerve Agent Poisoning
#30If Russia would like to kill people discretely, they would could use various other venom's and poisons. Ricin, for example. Russians use Novichok or Polonium because they are signature weapons that signal everyone that Russian intelligence agencies were involved. Polonium is FSB's signature. Novichok is chemical weapon in the hands of military, so G.U. (GRU).
Ricin is easily screened for. Novichok not so much until recently. Who knows how many people they had poisoned we don’t know about. Bellingcat research suggests that a lot. Polonium wouldn’t have been detected if not for some radiology expert who accidentally listened in on some side conversation
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