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Intel Problems

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Re: Intel Problems

#81
post #32
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not the memory model I'm thinking of but the cache design, ROB size etc. Obviously this is fairly niche but the friction to making something fast is hugely easier locally.

The vast majority of developers never profile their code. I think this is much less of an issue than anyone on HN would rank it. Only when the platform itself provides traces do they take it into consideration. And even then, I think most perf optimization is in a category of don't do the obviously slow thing, or the accidentally n^2 thing. I partially agree with you though, as the penetration of Arm goes deeper into…

"The vast majority of developers never profile their code."

Protip: New on the job and want to establish a reputation quickly? Find the most common path and fire a profiler at it as early as you can. The odds that there's some trivial win that will accelerate the code by huge amounts is fairly decent.

Another bit of evidence developers rarely profile their code is that I can tell my mental model of how expensive some server process will be to run and most other developer's mental models tend to differ by at least an order of magnitude. I've had multiple conversations about the services I provide and people asking me what my hardware is, expecting it to be run on some monster boxes or something when I tell them it's really just two t3.mediums, which mostly do nothing, and I only have two for redundancy. And it's not like I go profile crazy... I really just do some spot checks on hot-path code. By no means am I doing anything amazing. It's just... as you write more code, the odds that you accidentally write something that performs stupidly badly goes up steadily, even if you're trying not to.

Re: Intel Problems

#82

Feel this piece ducks one of the most important questions - what is the future and value of x86 to Intel? For a long time x86 was one half of the moat but it feels like that moat is close to crumbling. Once that happens the value of the design part of the business will be much, much lower - especially if they have to compete with an on form AMD. Can they innovate their way out of this? Doesn't look entirely promising…

The demise of x86 isn't something that can be fiated. It could come about, but there would need to be a very compelling reason to motivate the transition. Technologies that form basic business and infrastructural bedrock don't go away just because of one iteration -- look at Windows Vista for example. Even if every PC and server chip manufacturer were to eradicate x86 from their product offerings tomorrow, you'd stil…

>look at Windows Vista for example.

This is a terrible example for the reasons stated in the article. Microsoft is already treating windows more and more like a step child everyday - office and azure are the new cool kids

Re: Intel Problems

#83

Perhaps now the "Why do people obsess over manufacturing?" question that many tech workers ask when other US industries were decimated will become a bit less quizzical.

It was more economics and political policy wonks, economists and politicians in general, who didn't just ask that question, but thrust forth the prescriptive rhetoric through a large grid of trade agreements, "Globalism is here to stay! Get over it! Comparative Advantage!" This is only the first in a long, expensive series of lessons these people will be taught by reality in the coming decades. I'm guessing this kind of manufacturing loss will cost at least $1T to catch up and take the lead again after all is said and done, assuming the US can even take the lead.

US organization, economic, and financial management at the macro scale is going through a kind of "architecture astronaut" multi-decade phase with financialization propping up abstracted processes of how to lead massive organizations as big blocks on diagrams instead of highly fractal, constantly shifting networks of ideas and stories repeatedly coalescing around people, processes, and resources into focused discrete action in continguous and continuous OODA feedback loops absorbing and learning mistakes along the way. Ideally, the expensive BA and INTC lessons drive home the urgent need for an evolution in organizational management.

I wryly think how similar the national comparative advantage argument looks to much young adult science fiction portrayal of space opera galactic empire settings with entire worlds dedicated solely to one purpose. This world only produces agricultural goods. That world only provides academician services. It is a very human desire to simplify complex fractal realities, and effective modeling is one of our species' advantages, but at certain scales of size, agility and complexity it breaks down. We know this well in the software world; some problems are intrinsically hard and complex, and there is a baseline level of complexity the software must model to successfully assist with the problem space. Simplifying further past that point deteriorates the delivery.

Re: Intel Problems

#84

I think one day we’re going to wake up and discover that AWS mostly runs on Graviton (ARM) and not x86. And on that day intel’s troubles will go from future to present. My standing theory is that the m1 will accelerate it. Obviously all the wholly managed AWS services (Dynamo, Kinesis, S3, etc.) can change over silently, but the issue is EC2. I have a MBP, as do all of my engineers. Within a few years all of these ma…

Yeah and I assume we are going to see Graviton/Amazon linux based notebooks any day now.

Honestly, if Amazon spun this right and they came pre-setup for development and distribution and had all the right little specs (13 and 16 inch sizes, HiDPI matte displays, long battery life, solid keyboard, macbook-like trackpad) they could really hammer the backend dev market. Bonus points if they came with some sort of crazy assistance logic like each machine getting a pre-setup AWS Windows server for streaming windows X86 apps.

Re: Intel Problems

#85
post #72

Feel this piece ducks one of the most important questions - what is the future and value of x86 to Intel? For a long time x86 was one half of the moat but it feels like that moat is close to crumbling. Once that happens the value of the design part of the business will be much, much lower - especially if they have to compete with an on form AMD. Can they innovate their way out of this? Doesn't look entirely promising…

Why are people so hung up about the x86 thing? ARM continues to be sold on because everyone has now understood they don't really matter; they are not driving the innovations, they were simply the springboard for the Apples, Qualcomms and Amazons to drive their own processor designs, and they are not setup to profit from that. ARMs reference design isn't competitive, the M1 is. Instruction set architecture at this poi…

Well put. People are being their usual teamsport participants on x86 vs ARM. Intel has execution problems in two departments - manufacturing and integration. ISA is not an issue - they can very well solve the integration issues and investing in semiconductor manufacturing is the need of the hour for the US so I can imagine they getting some traction there with enough money and will.

IOW even if Intel switched ISA to ARM it won't magically fix any of the issues. We've had a lot of ARM vendors trying to do what Apple did for too long.

Re: Intel Problems

#86
I wonder how the move from x86 to arm is going to affect desktop apps. With the move to ARM apple is already pushing it's iOS apps into MacOS. Once it becomes commonplace on Windows, it would be super easy to run Android Apps on Windows via simulation(rather than emulation which is much slower).

Given that mobile apps are more lightweight and consume far less resources than their electron counterparts, would people prefer to use those instead? Especially if their UIs were updated to support larger desktop screens.

Re: Intel Problems

#87
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked up Canon's and Nikon's lithography numbers yesterday and was shocked to see that they barely make any money off their lithography businesses, considering that both companies make DUV machinery. Although they don't have the street cred of ASML, they are important because (A) there's a shortage, and (B) the demand side of the machinery market needs to foster competition in order to keep ASML from gouging its c…

they'll still be depreciating the newer fabs.

Sure, but my understanding is that (assuming that you have a choice about how much depreciation expense to write down) from a tax perspective that's what you're supposed to do when your business is making money. It's also a form of P&L smoothing.

Re: Intel Problems

#88

How does Moore's law figure into this? I suspect that TSMC runs into the wall that is quantum physics at around 1-2nm. Considering that TSMC has said that they will be in full production of 3nm in 2022, I can't see 1nm being much beyond 2026-2028. What happens then? Does a stall in die shrinks allow other fabs to catch up? It appears to me that Intel stalling at 14nm is what opened the door for TSMC and Samsung to ca…

Jim Keller believes that at least 10-20 years of shrinking is possible [1].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb2tebYAaOA&t=1800

Re: Intel Problems

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Intel can become a fab company Not unless they catch up with TSMC in process technology. Otherwise, they become an uncompetitive foundry.

The point is Intel can't compete as a fab or as a design house. It's doubtful if Intel would have been able to design an equivalent to the M1, even with access to TSMC's 5nm process and an ARM license. Which suggests there's no point in throwing money at Intel because the management culture ("management debt") itself is no longer competitive. It would take a genius CEO to fix this, and it's not obvious that CEO exist…

AMD looked just as bad not so long ago.

Re: Intel Problems

#90
post #42

> Solution One: Breakup > Solution Two: Subsidies Solution Three: lower prices/margins (temporarily) to match the value proposition of AMD on Windows PCs and Linux Cloud servers.

Solution Four: Is it even possible that Intel and AMD merge ?! With ARM based chips clearly accelerating and poised to take a big market share (Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Qualcomm becoming major players) there is less of an antitrust issue ?

It is more likely they will stick to their guns like IBM sticking with Power (which is technically awesome) but still pricing it too high (because cost economics is likely out of whack) and in the process they will lose developer mindshare.

I really hope Intel does better than IBM with Power.

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