"And to be clear, this change most likely has zero effect on you, our users. It has no effect on our customers that engage with us either in cloud or on premises." No, that's just not true. So many users, from small hobby side-projects, to large open source projects, and mega-corps care about the licensing of dependencies, each for their own reason, and will not want to build on top of proprietary software that impos…
If you're a paying customer, you are probably fine. If you're using SSPL'd Elastic (or Mongo DB, the risks are the same) for anything serious -- i.e. beyond a hobby, get legal advice ASAP. SSPL isn't an OSI certified license; many would call it at best a 'shared source' license because of the riders attached. [DELETED because, as user `gpm` points out, OSI doesn't own 'open source' as a trademark, sorry about that --…
That said hosting ES is basically the same as building a carwash, or a gas station, or let's say a printing house. You get the machinery and build your own support services around it.
Even the unit economics are not that different. AWS spent probably millions of dollars to push the marginal price down. The initial cost of procurement for machinery might be zero for ES as opposed to buying a printing press, but none of the aforementioned sectors are limited by the cost of machinery. In case of brick and mortar services the cost of land, labor, construction, and logistics are all a lot more important.
Yes, okay, but what about AWS's advantage, their "moat"? Elastic will never be able to match that. This is the same problem that plagues the browser, phone OS (and other) markets. Google can easily spend a billion USD each year on fiddling with Chrome and Android. Mozilla, Canonical, KDE, and others can't.
AWS has the platform advantage, Google has money.
It seems these market forces virtually force ES to become a "public good" like the Linux kernel. (Or Elastic could try to fork it and stop using any kind of free/open/available license. And try to find business niches.)
But at this point the cat is out of the bag. Likely no amount of license engineering will be sufficient to overcome AWS' advantage.