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The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com

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Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#281

Post by skybrian »

perl4ever wrote: post #280
skybrian wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm saying is that many home owners are paying significantly less than it would take to rent the same house, because they bought decades ago. Though of course there are also those who bought at high prices too. If you want to know about rents, it would make sense to just look at rents. I wonder how the housing component of CPI would look if there were a survey that was limited to renters?

My understanding is that the index relies on estimates of what homeowners would pay in rent for equivalent housing. If you think longtime homeowners are paying less, then substituting equivalent rent should push the CPI rate of inflation to be higher than the genuine rate. An overestimate. So you think correctly calculated inflation is less than the CPI says? I thought everybody who thinks it is inaccurate thinks it…

Hmmm, it looks like they just ask people what they think it would rent for and use that number:

"If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?” [1]

So, I was wrong about this. I'm wondering how people might be biased, though? They could over- or under-estimate what their property would go for.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-an...

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#282

Post by ur-whale »

piva00 wrote: post #266
ur-whale wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Sweden isn't socialist Say you make the yearly local equivalent of 150k USD, what is your income tax rate in Sweden?

Tax rate doesn't have any relationship to socialism, what's your point?

The point is, like a sheep on a farm, you're being milked and sheared by your government, like in most socialist countries.

Sure, like sheep on a farm, you're well tended to, but you basically live in a society where people exist to serve their government rather than the opposite.

That may not be your definition of the word "socialism".

Call it "collectivism" if that fits your definition better.

That won't change the fact that you're living in hell AFAIC.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#283

Post by wing-_-nuts »

ur-whale wrote: post #282
piva00 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tax rate doesn't have any relationship to socialism, what's your point?

The point is, like a sheep on a farm, you're being milked and sheared by your government, like in most socialist countries. Sure, like sheep on a farm, you're well tended to, but you basically live in a society where people exist to serve their government rather than the opposite. That may not be your definition of the word "socialism". Call it "collectivism" if that fits your definition better. That won't change the…

Hell is a funny word for a place that has one of the greatest quality of life of any OECD country. Yes, their tax rates are high, but not vastly higher than one might pay in California. I'll say this for them, at least they pay for their spending. Sweden's national debt is 35% of GDP, while ours was over 100% even before Covid-19.

Basically, if sweden is 'tax and spend' we're 'spend and future financial crisis'. I know which country I'd rather live in long term if I did not have a life to uproot here in the US.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#284

Post by spiralx »

mikewarot wrote: post #252
cryptoanonymous wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Author here. I really appreciate your kind words about the post - thank you! I'm also broadly in agreement with your conclusions as to what this means for a crypto trader or holder. I've zeroed my net exposure to this ecosystem myself, both in anticipation for such an event, and out of recognition that I frankly understand it far less well than I originally thought.

Long ago I spent $100 on a graphics card, and mined 1 Bitcoin over the course of a year... then lost it on MtGox... that was a cheap lesson compared to what appears set to happen. Thanks for taking the time and effort to put this together. I'm sure it'll help some people avoid a costly lesson.

I remember reading the first announcement of Bitcoin on Slashdot over a decade ago, and every time I begin to feel regret over not having downloaded it then, I realise that I would almost certainly have lost anything I had from one of a thousand ways its possible to lose your coins - MtGox being a major one in the early days!

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#285

Post by throwawaypali »

optimiz3 wrote: post #258
throwawaypali wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this actually work if you're being paid a salary in USD that wont likely rise with inflation?

Not to be flippant, but it's on you to negotiate better salary terms if that's how you get paid.

Uh, like most people I get around a 5% raise per anum, if inflation is higher than the CPIU estimates I'm treading water, like most people. If you're getting 10% per anum those are very unusual terms even for a high performer

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#286

Post by piva00 »

ur-whale wrote: post #282
piva00 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tax rate doesn't have any relationship to socialism, what's your point?

The point is, like a sheep on a farm, you're being milked and sheared by your government, like in most socialist countries. Sure, like sheep on a farm, you're well tended to, but you basically live in a society where people exist to serve their government rather than the opposite. That may not be your definition of the word "socialism". Call it "collectivism" if that fits your definition better. That won't change the…

I surely don't want to enter into this discussion, it seems baseless and meritless. Talking about sheep in a farm being tended to while disregarding upsides, without leaving room to discuss different models of social contracts and trade-offs. And worse, while you conceal what is your vision of a good model for society.

There is a lot to unpack here and I surely don't want to keep going when the rhetorics is so loaded, calling others sheep and misusing terms won't lead to a healthy discussion.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#287

Post by shibleyb »

Ok, so let's say Tether is a scam, unbacked, and everyone dumps it. How does this affect Bitcoin? In my opinion it would send it to the moon. When Tether is exited, where will it be exited to? Not the USD, maybe some into alt coins or USDC, but mostly into Bitcoin. Tether is scammy indeed, but it doesn't change the scarcity of Bitcoin, and the fact that there is still a huge demand and a constant supply for BTC.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#288

Post by ehhuang »

shibleyb wrote: post #287

Ok, so let's say Tether is a scam, unbacked, and everyone dumps it. How does this affect Bitcoin? In my opinion it would send it to the moon. When Tether is exited, where will it be exited to? Not the USD, maybe some into alt coins or USDC, but mostly into Bitcoin. Tether is scammy indeed, but it doesn't change the scarcity of Bitcoin, and the fact that there is still a huge demand and a constant supply for BTC.

When everyone is dumping tether, who’s trading BTC for tether?

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#289

Post by notSupplied »

dnp100 wrote: post #224
not2b wrote: post #110

It seems that this guy decided to go heavily into Bitcoin because of a mistaken belief that seems all too common: "At the time, I saw a market dislocation and the likelihood of significant dollar inflation due to the US Government’s likely response to the unfolding pandemic." He thought that government responses to severe crises that inject lots of money into the economy will cause "significant dollar inflation". In…

Deflation is a wonderful thing. It means more people can buy more stuff. It should be one of the primary goals of our civilization.

You’re talking about rising purchasing power, which is better achieved through rising income than deflating currency.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#290

Post by kleer001 »

staplers wrote: post #196
cryptoanonymous wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Author here; I agree this is a valid objection and that one should be very cautious when extrapolating cause-effect relationships. Systems like these also often have multiple embedded feedback loops in them, which can make it impossible to identify a single cause once the flywheel gets going. It's when you combine the USDT/BTC correlation with the available evidence for Tether's unbacked issuance that the problem bec…

one should be very cautious when extrapolating cause-effect relationships Interesting statement after publishing this article with that title.

Which is why they backed their claim with lots of data.
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