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Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

nytimes.com

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Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#31

Post by ajju »

rubashov wrote: post #11
ajju wrote: post #2

So the Freakonomics guys famously (and controversially) attributed the decline in crime in the 90's to four factors, abortion being the most controversial [1]: – Increased reliance on prisons – Increased number of police – The bursting of the crack bubble – The legalization of abortion The NYT article says that incarceration rates have dropped, which would eliminate the first factor. I wonder how the other 3 correlat…

The abortion correlation has been thoroughly dismantled. There were even straight-up mathematical errors in the initial claimed correlation. http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm That this claim is still so often credulously repeated tells you something about how tied to reality the chattering classes are. The above referenced Steve Sailer also offers a decent unempirical hypothesis about the decline of crime: Technolog…

There are better sources for a counter-argument than Steve Sailer I think, although even Sailer attributes the decline to a stronger effect of the Crack crack-down, if Wikipedia is to be believed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortio...

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#32

Post by rationalbeats »

I thought it has to do with police departments setting up bonus incentive programs tied to a reduction in certain crimes.

This then encourages the police department heads to not fully report serious crimes, this way they receive their year end bonus.

Example, rape? No that was just simple assault.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#33

Post by rsheridan6 »

chrismealy wrote: post #16
rubashov wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The abortion correlation has been thoroughly dismantled. There were even straight-up mathematical errors in the initial claimed correlation. http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm That this claim is still so often credulously repeated tells you something about how tied to reality the chattering classes are. The above referenced Steve Sailer also offers a decent unempirical hypothesis about the decline of crime: Technolog…

That dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.

Which has fuck all to do with the subject at hand, which was the relationship between abortion and crime.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#34

Post by hugh3 »

JoachimSchipper wrote: post #28

How is this not politics?

Well, you could say it's statistics.

I dunno, I started a thread asking about what happened to the no-politics rule yesterday, but it got [dead]-ed after collecting a few dozen comments. (In fairness, by phrasing my complaint as an "Ask HN" I might have been abusing the Ask HN system.)

The other trouble with politics threads, though, is that the barriers to entry are so low. If the subject is thermodynamics or erlang then there's a certain amount of knowledge required to take part in the discussion, or even to find it interesting. But if the subject is "why is crime down" or "hey, what's up with people in the US not getting enough holidays" then anyone can chime in with their own opinion on the matter... or at least to throw their favourite political hobby horse into the mix (It's all about race! No wait, it's all about police corruption! No wait, it's all about white collar crimes going unprosecuted!)

A major point of the no-politics rule was to keep the site looking as boring as possible to anyone not really interested in discussing the sort of stuff that the site is really supposed to be about.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#35

Post by ajju »

rsheridan6 wrote: post #33
chrismealy wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That dude is a hardcore racist. Unless you want his rep rubbing off on you might want to find another reference.

Which has fuck all to do with the subject at hand, which was the relationship between abortion and crime.

Let's try to keep this civil.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#37

Post by nck4222 »

leelin wrote: post #8

I guess Netflix On-Demand, Facebook stalking, and FarmVille do their job in cheaply entertaining us! Seriously though, murders are a distant leap from idle teenage mischief, but I have to believe people commit fewer crimes when they have more to lose. If someone is reasonably happy with his day-to-day life, why risk disrupting it? Now for a really big leap-of-faith: maybe social media opens our eyes to how other peop…

Interesting idea, but some studies have shown that social media can lead to depression as well: http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/311899/can-too-much-social-net...

Basically people present and exaggerate the best of themselves online (highlight their achievements, show how much fun they're having with life). People compare themselves to what their friends seem like online, and get depressed because they're friends seem to be doing so much better than they are.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#39

Post by natnat »

JoachimSchipper wrote: post #28

How is this not politics?

I don't see how this is any more political than all of the articles about how the newest anti-piracy bill is the worst thing ever or how patent trolling is horrible. I don't disagree with either class of posts, but they are, strictly speaking, quite political.

I think making "no politics ever" a rule can hamper discussions quite a lot. I can understand why it's not productive to talk about, say, the merits of Obama's health care bill, which evokes really partisan gut reactions and makes people more likely to start posting pithy political slogans that sound good and make for horrible discussion. But talking about a reduced crime rate without crediting/blaming any particular politician or party can be pretty interesting to talk about.

On the other hand, I don't think any of the anti-DRM or anti-anti-piracy posts are very productive. But everyone here seems to agree on them, so even though the discussions are often quite vapid, they tend to be less nasty than, say, discussions about the merits of single-payer healthcare.

Re: Steady Decline in Major Crime Baffles Experts

#40

Post by vondur »

Aren't we imprisoning more people than ever before? I know here in California, the three strikes law put many violent criminals off the streets and into prison for lengthy prison terms. Now that the Supreme court has ruled against the state in a prison lawsuit, California has to release 30k prisoners. Let's see what happens to the violent crime rate here in a few years.
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