211–220 of 297 posts
Is there any way to "short" bitcoin? I don't really trust any of the fly-by-night cryptocurrency exchanges, but is there a real derivatives market somewhere?
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> print USDT, buy BTC on sham exchanges, send BTC to Coinbase, sell for USDC. The steps you described don't result in new USDC being minted. That happens only when people send dollars to Coinbase and change them to USDC. > If it were legitimate flows, you would actually expect USDC to far outpace USDT given the much greater ease of conversion and trust in the sponsors. No, USDT has been around for a lot longer and lo…
I think it does. People send USD to Coinbase to buy Bitcoin. Coinbase maintains the stable value of USDC by creating new USDC and selling it to people for BTC. The cash to back USDC comes from people depositing USD to buy BTC. You can think of it virtually as three balanced flows: USD -> USDC -> BTC (Retail BTC Investors) BTC -> USDC (Tether refugees) USDC -> USD (Coinbase)
If tou want USDC you can simply change your dollars on coinbase. No need for them to use their own funds to maintain a stable price - there's no usdc/usd market on coinbase.
Ok, for everyone here worried about the value of their BTC, please consider this. At the end of the day, all that really matters is what percentage of BTC bought was from HODLERS. If 80% of all BTC bought was from HODLERS, it means the market cap of BTC can NOT drop anymore than 20%, at the very maximum drop, and since the number of BTC coins in existance is constant, it means the drop in value of BTC is at MOST 20%.…
Sorry, but this comment is wrong on every level. First: that is very much not how prices work. If everyone else stayed on the sidelines and did not sell or buy any Bitcoin, the price could be set by two people - one buyer and one seller. Second: you have no way to know who bought BTC. You can get a guess from various media, but you can never truly know. Large amounts of Bitcoin frequently change hands in entirely pri…
Imagine if everyone stayed on the sidelines and did not sell any bitcoin (the HODLRS), as the number of sellers continues to diminish more and more and more, this puts upward pressure on bitcoin as the percentage of buyers outnumber the selllers more and more. It's like trying to buy a house in the bay area. there's very few people who can afford to buy a bay area house but there's even fewer houses for sale and so the prices keep going up and up and up.
What matters is the ratio of buyers to sellers. and once you run out of sellers, the price starts going up again.
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Honestly I don't care about articles that support my skepticism, they largely bore me as well. What made this article and others like so amusing is the tremendous irony of demanding regulation, irony that the author seems completely oblivious to. Do I regret missing out on all of the crypto gains I could have had? Honestly I don't really think about it that often and when I do it's largely because I work in tech and…
What irony? I've been involved with bitcoin since 2010, and I too think all exchanges should have reserves enforced and audited. Not all bitcoin enthusiasts are anarcho-capitalist extremists.
Ok, for everyone here worried about the value of their BTC, please consider this. At the end of the day, all that really matters is what percentage of BTC bought was from HODLERS. If 80% of all BTC bought was from HODLERS, it means the market cap of BTC can NOT drop anymore than 20%, at the very maximum drop, and since the number of BTC coins in existance is constant, it means the drop in value of BTC is at MOST 20%.…
If you add in the fact that these exchanges allow trading on margin, you could have a situation where people are forced to liquidate their holdings regardless of the current price. It's the perfect storm for a flash crash.
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Sidenote: It currently costs miners ~$10K to produce 1 BTC.
This is only relevant because if the price of BTC drops below this, many miners may shut down their hardware. The amount of money & electricty wasted to generate a BTC is otherwise unrelated to the price of BTC in dollars or other assets.
Isn't it _directly_ related? If I'm a miner and the BTC I'm mining doubles in value I can afford to spend 2x as much money on hardware/energy and still make a profit.
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What irony? I've been involved with bitcoin since 2010, and I too think all exchanges should have reserves enforced and audited. Not all bitcoin enthusiasts are anarcho-capitalist extremists.
You are certainly an outlier in the crypto community. Most crypto enthusiasts seem to be opposed to regulation.
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If tether is pumping BTC then it’ll stop pumping BTC when it’s taken away. Weak hands will fold and then there will be a crash
OK, yes, that's a fair point. But it's not clear to me that pumping being taken away would be a bigger change than people trying to get out of USDT and buying BTC. Also we've been there (mtgox's willy etc). I don't think bitcoin will be much less volatile any time soon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
In the same way that there's no obvious ceiling to its value, if a lot of people try to get out of it at once, there's no obvious floor either.
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Why on Earth would $100 billion worth of Tether rushing for a conversion into anything else drag _down_ the price of BTC? Or any other coin for that matter? Have you actually sat down and thought about this, even if 99% waited and cashed out over weeks, that 1% is still a huge injection into the ecosystem. People have been shown time and time again that the money is there, the peg can hold, the underlying company is…
> ” you can hold a bitcoin future going short for the next year less than a coffee per / $1k” Genuinely curious about how could I do that. I am not that much into cryptocurrencies, so I appreciate if you have the time and will to be specific in the operationals. I do have a (currently empty) account at Kraken, if that helps. How can I short BTC?
Ok, for everyone here worried about the value of their BTC, please consider this. At the end of the day, all that really matters is what percentage of BTC bought was from HODLERS. If 80% of all BTC bought was from HODLERS, it means the market cap of BTC can NOT drop anymore than 20%, at the very maximum drop, and since the number of BTC coins in existance is constant, it means the drop in value of BTC is at MOST 20%.…
There are issues with almost every assertion and conclusion in this post, but I will limit my critique to the idea that the downward movement of BTC is capped at the % of BTC people are willing to sell. It's simply not true. The spot price of BTC is a function of what people are currently willing to pay and what people are willing to accept. If the primary source of demand and liquidity in the BTC trading markets col…
(assuming there's a fixed set of HODLRS). As bitcoin sells off, the number of sellers decreases, correct?
Assume on a given day, 10K buyers and 10k sellers.
As the number of sellers decreases, the ratio of buyers to sellers increases, correct?
maybe 10K buyers, 5k sellers, then 10k buyers, 1k sellers, then 10kbuyers 500 sellers, etc. this continues to put increasing upward pressure on BTC.
The above example would still be true even if bitcoin buying demand went from 10k to 2k. (collapse of tether BTC demand)
All that matters is that there's a certain minimum number of people willing to buy bitcoin for a given time period and the HODLRs who won't sell there BTC. as long as those two conditions are met, the number of buyers will soon outnumber sellers. it's just math in the end.
how can this be wrong?