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U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

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Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#91

Post by thehappypm »

grecy wrote: post #82
thehappypm wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't really make sense. If there's a long line at Starbucks for takeout, why are you saying there aren't any customers?

The locally owned and run stores were forced to close by a government mandate, while the "big boys" where deemed essential and were allowed to stay open. The joys of being rich, you get to influence the government!

I don’t think this ever applied to a Starbucks or McDonalds compared to a local coffee or burger place.

100% for supermarkets and Walmarts, but I can’t see how (in any jurisdiction) McDonalds or Starbucks would be allowed to do take out but local restaurants would not.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#92

Post by prox »

sokoloff wrote: post #34
prox wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The network effect is strong. If I post a comment to stop using Chrome (since there are better alternatives and Chrome is a near monopoly) we already see how resistant to change we are. If you order something, people don’t search for alternatives. If your tied into an eco system, you don’t move away from it. Personally I actively try to support local businesses, use only non-monopolies out of principle.

People do tend to use alternatives that they experience as better (which may not be the same as being better). You have to have a better experience and you have to get people to be aware, consider, and try the alternative experience. A lot of us switched to Chrome because it was a better experience at the time. A lot bought from Amazon for the same reason. I’ll happily buy from a non-Amazon who gives me an experience…

The thing is, even when the experience gets worse, you might still be resistant to change. You already have your account setup, that feature X you liked they took isn’t that bad, the extra advertising doesn’t bother you too much, etc.

Maybe feature X in Firefox is actually better than Chrome (just an imaginary example) but because it doesn’t exactly work like you are used too, it doesn’t appeal.

Or your peers are all in the same in-group and Software X is what a Real Programmer should be using.

That all together could mean an experience gets progressively worse yet you don’t switch.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#93

Post by acct776 »

dillondoyle wrote: post #85
acct776 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not his fuckin job !

I'm specifically responding to parent " He couldn't control how the response was managed and he doesn't control tax policy" saying he could easily exert a LOT of power to change tax policy if he wanted to. And could step up and pay more in taxes even without changing the laws

Yes. And I'm specifically responding and saying:

That's not his fuckin job!

It's ours - and our government's.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#94

Post by centimeter »

triceratops wrote: post #90
centimeter wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> More accurately the government non-reaction to the pandemic. This is precisely the opposite of true. Countries with strict and widely observed lockdowns don't seem to be generally better off health-wise than those with no lockdowns whatsoever, but their economies are certainly worse off. > next to no assistance for those truly in need If you think "assistance" such as it could have been rendered would have been goo…

> Countries with strict and widely observed lockdowns don't seem to be generally better off health-wise No? So we're not counting China or Australia? I also didn't say anything about lockdowns specifically. Those are the last resort after travel restrictions, mandatory testing and quarantine for travelers, contact tracing, universal mask-wearing have failed to slow the spread. We didn't even try any of that, did some…

China is lying, Austrialia isn't substantively better off than e.g. Sweden, which took the opposite approach.

> I said it would have prevented the widespread misery.

Why? That seems facially insane to me.

> testing, quarantine, contact-tracing,

Clearly none of those things actually help. You can't eliminate a disease with this level of transmissibility - maybe slow it down a bit.

> the virus would have run amok and impoverished those people anyway by destroying their industries

You have a completely distorted view of how dangerous this virus is.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#95

Post by triceratops »

centimeter wrote: post #94
triceratops wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Countries with strict and widely observed lockdowns don't seem to be generally better off health-wise No? So we're not counting China or Australia? I also didn't say anything about lockdowns specifically. Those are the last resort after travel restrictions, mandatory testing and quarantine for travelers, contact tracing, universal mask-wearing have failed to slow the spread. We didn't even try any of that, did some…

China is lying, Austrialia isn't substantively better off than e.g. Sweden, which took the opposite approach. > I said it would have prevented the widespread misery. Why? That seems facially insane to me. > testing, quarantine, contact-tracing, Clearly none of those things actually help. You can't eliminate a disease with this level of transmissibility - maybe slow it down a bit. > the virus would have run amok and i…

> China is lying

Prove it. Even if they're lying, they'd have to under report deaths by a factor of 40 to approach the US per-capita death toll. How easy do you think it is to hide 40x the bodies that were reported?

> Austrialia isn't substantively better off than e.g. Sweden

In what way? They have 50x (1k/1M vs 50k/1M) fewer cases per capita than Sweden. They have the same unemployment rate (~7%). I'd call that "substantively better".

In your worldview everyone who does better than the US at containing Covid is either lying or doesn't exist. Think about that.

> That seems facially insane to me

Preventing misery sounds "insane" to you? Or do you think the idea that giving assistance would prevent misery is "insane"? They're both pretty normal ideas - maybe you're the one with the distorted view of the world.

> Clearly none of those things actually help

South Korea (1k cases/1M) and Taiwan (36 cases/1M) would like to have a word with you.

> You have a completely distorted view of how dangerous this virus is.

In October 2020, Covid was already the 3rd leading cause of death for 45+[1]. In the past week, it was the single-largest cause of death. The next 2 (usually heart disease and cancer) take decades to kill you and aren't transmissible.

Maybe you should consider the possibility that you're the one who's been deeply misinformed. You're saying completely untrue stuff with 100% confidence. I think you're in denial.

1. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774465

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#96

Post by centimeter »

triceratops wrote: post #95
centimeter wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is lying, Austrialia isn't substantively better off than e.g. Sweden, which took the opposite approach. > I said it would have prevented the widespread misery. Why? That seems facially insane to me. > testing, quarantine, contact-tracing, Clearly none of those things actually help. You can't eliminate a disease with this level of transmissibility - maybe slow it down a bit. > the virus would have run amok and i…

> China is lying Prove it. Even if they're lying, they'd have to under report deaths by a factor of 40 to approach the US per-capita death toll. How easy do you think it is to hide 40x the bodies that were reported? > Austrialia isn't substantively better off than e.g. Sweden In what way? They have 50x (1k/1M vs 50k/1M) fewer cases per capita than Sweden. They have the same unemployment rate (~7%). I'd call that "sub…

Basically everything you’re saying is low-grade bullshit, but I’ll just focus on

> In October 2020, Covid was already the 3rd leading cause of death for 45+

If you don’t understand how the US’s covid mortality reporting policies grossly inflate this number, you’re deriving premises from fundamentally broken data.

In fact, this is the fundamental source of confusion when doing comparisons across countries. If you normalize for reporting standards, things look very different from the picture you’ve painted.

Edit: this dogshit website won’t let me respond further, but I’ll just paste it here:

Arguing the numbers is a losing tactic - at least, it’s a waste of time - when you’re speaking with someone who doesn’t understand that it’s absurd to compare countries where anyone who dies with covid is reported to have died of covid (like most metrics in the US) against countries that have a more sane reporting standard, like Taiwan.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#97

Post by triceratops »

centimeter wrote: post #96
triceratops wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is lying Prove it. Even if they're lying, they'd have to under report deaths by a factor of 40 to approach the US per-capita death toll. How easy do you think it is to hide 40x the bodies that were reported? > Austrialia isn't substantively better off than e.g. Sweden In what way? They have 50x (1k/1M vs 50k/1M) fewer cases per capita than Sweden. They have the same unemployment rate (~7%). I'd call that "sub…

Basically everything you’re saying is low-grade bullshit, but I’ll just focus on > In October 2020, Covid was already the 3rd leading cause of death for 45+ If you don’t understand how the US’s covid mortality reporting policies grossly inflate this number, you’re deriving premises from fundamentally broken data. In fact, this is the fundamental source of confusion when doing comparisons across countries. If you norm…

> Basically everything you’re saying is low-grade bullshit

I.e. "I can't argue with actual numbers so I'm just going to scoff at you instead."

Denial's a powerful drug my friend.

> anyone who dies with covid is reported to have died of covid (like most metrics in the US)

First off, Taiwan and South Korea have low cases, not just low deaths. So saying "It's impossible to stop the spread" is clear nonsense. And you haven't presented any evidence that other countries don't report Covid deaths in this way.

Moreover, how many of those US deaths were completely asymptomatic Covid patients that died of something else entirely? And how do you explain ICUs being packed out and LA running out of mortuary space if all those people would have died anyway under normal circumstances? The fully asymptomatic deaths are the only ones you should discount. Everyone else rightly counts in the Covid mortality stats. Doesn't matter if their obesity or cancer or old age or some other underlying issue made them more vulnerable; it was the Covid that killed them then rather than later.

I do agree that arguing numbers is a losing tactic - with someone who's in deep denial because they decided early on this whole pandemic business was BS and no evidence was going to change their mind. Stay safe buddy.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#98

Post by exabrial »

eckmLJE wrote: post #89
exabrial wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, this is a great example of a failed policy. Lets apply the simple rule: the less moving pieces a system has, the less it's likely to fail. So, instead of getting 100 people to wear a mask in one business, get 1 business to increase the airflow in the business by 10x. Much simpler solution and something that can be directly measured. And really, they're non-competing; we can do both. Furthermore it eliminates…

I'm sorry, you think that increasing airflow by 10x in businesses in many various buildings and conditions is a simpler matter than people putting a piece of cloth over their face? xD The key government failure in the US, at least since a total failure by the white house to seize the moment early on, is republicans seizing mask-wearing as a wedge issue. Following the most simple measures such as masks would effective…

By your argument, doesn't that mean that states/cities with completely blue government would have the lowest numbers? Or are those pesky Republicans all over california interfering with that?

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#99

Post by fakedang »

scohesc wrote: post #48
fakedang wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotal, but I laughed when I saw that SL Green, one of the biggest commercial landlords in New York City, and one of the competitors of my former PE firm, was seeking federal relief funds for the pandemic as a small business.

Not looking to give them an "out" - but I wonder if it's because these companies take on so much debt by buying properties and making the bet that people will always be living and working in them, paying rent. Now that people are leaving NYC in droves for other, cheaper locations - the NY real estate market is absolutely tanking because nobody is paying rent. These property management companies made their bed, imo.

That's kind of their business model, yep.

My old firm sort of moved away from the LBO model, but it's still going strong.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#100

Post by dillondoyle »

acct776 wrote: post #93
dillondoyle wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm specifically responding to parent " He couldn't control how the response was managed and he doesn't control tax policy" saying he could easily exert a LOT of power to change tax policy if he wanted to. And could step up and pay more in taxes even without changing the laws

Yes. And I'm specifically responding and saying: That's not his fuckin job! It's ours - and our government's.

It's his too, he is a citizen. with hugely outsized influence.

I am definitely organizing for and personally committed to taxing the mega mega wealthy/corps, and so are millions more. But even working in politics my influence is like 1/100,000th of his.

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