Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can short on pro?
My bad, you can go margin but not short. Kraken can short though.
Is Kraken SEC regulated?
The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
191–200 of 297 posts
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#192Some people want Bitcoin to fail so much that they‘ll believe in literal conspiracy theories if it supports their priors. A legitimate market for hard money is impossible for these people to believe, it must be fraud.
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because if you made a better return by hoarding cash then by investing -- holding bonds, buying apartment buildings-- investment would stop and people would stuff cash into mattresses.
Is that necessarily a bad thing? Growth at the cost of everything doesn't seem to bode well long term. What would the potential consequences of an economy not based on continuous growth? Genuine question, not trying to be inflammatory.
It depends on the type of growth. Growth through efficiency gains extends the productivity runway of economies reliant on finite resource consumption.
I think consequences of a no growth economy are pretty bad. It would mean much more of the world becoming zero sum. The pie would be fixed.
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#194Is there any way to "short" bitcoin? I don't really trust any of the fly-by-night cryptocurrency exchanges, but is there a real derivatives market somewhere?
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitco...
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#195> Now fast-forward one year. In March of 2020, I bought a large amount of Bitcoin. At the time, I saw a market dislocation and the likelihood of significant dollar inflation due to the US Government’s likely response to the unfolding pandemic. I'm frustrated by this statement. If you predict inflation in the USD that is not currently priced into the market, then there are already plenty of conventional ways to make m…
My favorite way to short the dollar is to use fixed-rate debt to buy productive assets (real-estate, etc.). Double whammy. Assets in general should keep pace with inflation and fixed-rate debt gets inflated away.
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#196The author implies that the recent growth in tether's market cap is an indication of an incoming exit scam. A cursory glance at Coinbase's USDC's market cap [1] shows that it too is growing at almost exactly the same pace as tether's [2]. I think most players in this market would agree that Coinbase, for all of it's failings, is unlikely to be planning an exit scam at this point. It doesn't disprove the whole thesis,…
Author here; I agree this is a valid objection and that one should be very cautious when extrapolating cause-effect relationships. Systems like these also often have multiple embedded feedback loops in them, which can make it impossible to identify a single cause once the flywheel gets going. It's when you combine the USDT/BTC correlation with the available evidence for Tether's unbacked issuance that the problem bec…
one should be very cautious when extrapolating cause-effect relationships
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#197It seems that this guy decided to go heavily into Bitcoin because of a mistaken belief that seems all too common: "At the time, I saw a market dislocation and the likelihood of significant dollar inflation due to the US Government’s likely response to the unfolding pandemic." He thought that government responses to severe crises that inject lots of money into the economy will cause "significant dollar inflation". In…
> In the real world, over the full year of 2020 inflation was 1.4% in the US (food costs went up a bit more, energy costs went down). Are you sure about that? https://chapwoodindex.com
On the other hand, the billion prices project (http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/) is generally well-correlated with the CPI.
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#198> Now fast-forward one year. In March of 2020, I bought a large amount of Bitcoin. At the time, I saw a market dislocation and the likelihood of significant dollar inflation due to the US Government’s likely response to the unfolding pandemic. I'm frustrated by this statement. If you predict inflation in the USD that is not currently priced into the market, then there are already plenty of conventional ways to make m…
My favorite way to short the dollar is to use fixed-rate debt to buy productive assets (real-estate, etc.). Double whammy. Assets in general should keep pace with inflation and fixed-rate debt gets inflated away.
Does this actually work if you're being paid a salary in USD that wont likely rise with inflation?
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#199> There’s a scene in The Big Short where Mike Baum meets a stripper who’s taken out mortgages on five properties. The stripper doesn’t think there’s anything wrong with doing that, because her mortgage broker told her she could always refinance her mortgages when the prices of her houses went up. And housing prices would always go up.
Of course, our Government ended up bailing out people like the "stripper" who would complain that they "lost their homes."
Let's hope the new administration doesn't bail out crypto specu-vestors.
Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
My bad, you can go margin but not short. Kraken can short though.
Is Kraken SEC regulated?
Assume so, based in US, available for 48 states.
https://support.kraken.com/hc/en-us/articles/360031282351-Is...