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The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com

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Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#171

Post by qeternity »

leppr wrote: post #2

Related: Tether’s bank Deltec says it invests customer funds in Bitcoin https://www.deltecbank.com/2021/01/14/a-covid-year-in-review... https://www.coindesk.com/tethers-bank-says-it-invests-custom... https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1349873798078558209 The next weeks/months are going to be fascinating to watch, as US regulators and invested institutions fight to both regulate and protect their crypto investments. M…

US equities are the one last great bubble. But crypto are a symptom of the same disease.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#172

Post by qeternity »

DSingularity wrote: post #157

If tether started crashing people would buy Bitcoin/eth like crazy to avoid holding tether. What would that do to the price of tether?

You would likely see crypto on unbanked exchanges skyrocket as the USDT denominator to most pairs goes to zero. This crypto would presumably be moved off exchange and sold elsewhere. So on legit exchanges, crypto crashes and on sham exchanges it moons.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#173

Post by Infinitesimus »

huitzitziltzin wrote: post #161
Infinitesimus wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CPI is a very distorted view of actual living costs over time. House prices aren't included and we've seen prices balloon over the last decade. Sure, your apples cost the same but good luck trying to buy property . Yes we have the usual supply constraints, etc.

>House prices aren't included and we've seen prices balloon over the last decade Depending on exactly what you mean, this is not a great criticism of the CPI. House prices are excluded on purpose. Housing costs are included (including for housing equivalent to what an owner owns). CPI does include housing expenses: "The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or…

Thanks for the extra context - I should have been more clear. CPI does capture OER and rental costs as you show.

I get that mortgage costs and the like aren't considered as consumption ( rightly so ) but that makes the measure inaccurate when assessing prices people pay to live day to day. Rental prices are generally a more applicable indicator for most of the population as the BLS says but the rising costs of houses and mortgage costs by extension imo should be captures because it signals how money is flowing.

Is there another metric perhaps that captures both consumption costs and housing beyond rent/rent equivalents?

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#174

Post by dragonwriter »

SilasX wrote: post #170
dragonwriter wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yep, the new money has flowed into capital assets rather than consumption goods. Yes, because the wealth has flowed to people who primarily relate to the economy as capitalists, rather than laborer/consumers. > It would be like saying there’s no inflation because milk prices are steady, ignoring that cows cost three times as much. So, it would be true, for the purpose for which we have and measure general inflation…

Depends on who the “we” is there. Certain agencies don’t care that new money is flowing into capital assets but probably should care.

> Depends on who the “we” is there.

I would argue the statement is true for any significant government or private use of general inflation measures.

But, sure, if you’ve got a case where the CPI is actually used for a purpose and you think a different measure of inflation that incorporated asset prices would be a better replacement for the CPI, please feel free to present (1) the existing use in question, (2) your proposed replacement measure, and (3) your argument for why your proposed replacement is better.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#175

Post by DSingularity »

cryptoanonymous wrote: post #166
csomar wrote: post #50

I'd be very careful to take advice from this guy. 1. He's definitively bad at investing. He doesn't have an investment strategy, and probably never heard of portfolio re-balancing. 2. He got in lucky and made some good returns. Now he thinks he is a genius because of that, and as a result can predict the next market move. 3. He didn't do good market research. For example, most of the volume in USDT is faked by the ex…

Hi, I'm the author. > He doesn't have an investment strategy, and probably never heard of portfolio re-balancing. This is perhaps a reasonable inference to draw based only on the information in the article, but it is incorrect. Without going into too much detail, the missing context is that I have effective long exposure to certain markets through my ownership of founder stock in a startup that operates in those mark…

I like your style. Off topic question: why are you so absolute in your investment decisions? Can’t predict what happens so you totally exit? Thought you had figured out some inflation dynamics so you all-in BTC?

I’ve lately decided I need to be more moderate in my investing to avoid quagmires of conflicted indecision.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#177

Post by DSingularity »

doggosphere wrote: post #168
ForHackernews wrote: post #112

Is there any way to "short" bitcoin? I don't really trust any of the fly-by-night cryptocurrency exchanges, but is there a real derivatives market somewhere?

Short on Coinbase Pro, or Kraken

You can short on pro?

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#178

Post by dlubarov »

findthewords wrote: post #133
saurik wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To verify, though: in fact, the M2 is skyrocketing in 2020, right?

Yes, but velocity of money is plummeting.

Is there reason to think that velocity will remain low in the long term, though? If it's just temporary economic effects caused by COVID (e.g. less physical commerce), then surely we will see higher inflation as those effects go away?

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#179

Post by [deleted] »

dragonwriter wrote: post #174
SilasX wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on who the “we” is there. Certain agencies don’t care that new money is flowing into capital assets but probably should care.

> Depends on who the “we” is there. I would argue the statement is true for any significant government or private use of general inflation measures. But, sure, if you’ve got a case where the CPI is actually used for a purpose and you think a different measure of inflation that incorporated asset prices would be a better replacement for the CPI, please feel free to present (1) the existing use in question, (2) your pr…

[deleted]

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#180

Post by DSingularity »

qeternity wrote: post #172
DSingularity wrote: post #157

If tether started crashing people would buy Bitcoin/eth like crazy to avoid holding tether. What would that do to the price of tether?

You would likely see crypto on unbanked exchanges skyrocket as the USDT denominator to most pairs goes to zero. This crypto would presumably be moved off exchange and sold elsewhere. So on legit exchanges, crypto crashes and on sham exchanges it moons.

Thanks. Seems obvious now that you write it.
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