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The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com

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Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#11

Post by EliRivers »

BelenusMordred wrote: post #7

[flagged]

"Tether holds far more than your bank or many bluechips in backing, try not to forget that one."

The author writes right there in the article why he thinks Tether is full of shit. He states that the bank they claim to be putting all their dollars in simply doesn't have that many dollars.

So you can now put your money where your mouth is and explain why he's mistaken about that.

Addeundum, some time later: dylkil has done it for you. Now there a commenter who actually comes armed with facts.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#12

Post by ALittleLight »

comboy wrote: post #6

I don't get it. tether sucks. If you hold tether it may turn into air. But your bitcoin is still bitcoin. Also, when tether is going down wouldn't you want to sell it thus creating pressure in btc/tether market and value of of tether/btc going up? It's always been clear to me that USD/BTC and USDT/BTC are two different markets. USDT is just another cryptocurrency. Many of them were scams and disappeared and many more…

I'm not really sure I understand this, neither finance nor crypto is my strong suit, but I think it's saying that most bitcoins are purchased with tether, and if the tethers are fake then that means most of the demand for bitcoin is fake. If the demand falls a lot, the price will too.

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding this though. It's hard for me to believe people buying and selling bitcoin wouldn't notice this somehow.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#13

Post by leppr »

nmlnn wrote: post #9

Uh.. one little problem with this kid's analysis. There are multiple USDT/USD markets ( https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDTUSD/ )

Yes, three other markets accounting for a total of... $4 million daily volume. That's less than many random Uniswap tokens, and could consist entirely of some minimal market making. I've done stablecoin market making myself, it's not very profitable but the low inventory risk makes it attractive, as the ratio always trends back to 1:1.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#17

Post by alcio »

H8crilA wrote: post #5

> For the rest of 2020, my inflationary thesis looked right Just to make it clear: there's absolutely no broad inflation almost everywhere in the world, certainly not in the United States. It may still come, but inflation is not why Bitcoin is on such a tear. Look at CPI or PPI of you don't believe me. Although this does remind me of the Green Lumber Trader story from Taleb. Congrats on the trade!

inflation in consumer goods might not be high, but financial assets have clearly inflated: a quick look at gold denominated SPY shows it.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#18

Post by dannyw »

This is nothing more than FUD designed to benefit a short position. The reason why exchanges like Binance and Bybit have their inflows from Tether... is because (as the author explains) they only take Tether!

Why do they only take Tether? Because US banking is incredibly expensive and a regulatory nightmare.

Why do people use Tether exchanges, over Coinbase? Not just because of leverage, but also because many do not AML/KYC, especially if you only deal with crypto. A LOT of people in the crypto community don't like to pay taxes, and we've known this from day one.

Many crypto enthusiasts also boycott "regulated" exchanges like Coinbase, because they shut down accounts if you use it to gamble on a sportsbook, or whatever their surveillance doesn't like.

So it should not be a surprise that many people in the crypto community, me being one of them, actually prefer to use Tether and Tether exchanges.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#19

Post by alcio »

leppr wrote: post #13
nmlnn wrote: post #9

Uh.. one little problem with this kid's analysis. There are multiple USDT/USD markets ( https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDTUSD/ )

Yes, three other markets accounting for a total of... $4 million daily volume. That's less than many random Uniswap tokens, and could consist entirely of some minimal market making. I've done stablecoin market making myself, it's not very profitable but the low inventory risk makes it attractive, as the ratio always trends back to 1:1.

USDT-USD markets are indeed marginal. however, implied USDT price using BTC as a cross shows USDT is valued pretty much at parity with the dollar by the market:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/spread/BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT...

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#20

Post by H8crilA »

alcio wrote: post #17
H8crilA wrote: post #5

> For the rest of 2020, my inflationary thesis looked right Just to make it clear: there's absolutely no broad inflation almost everywhere in the world, certainly not in the United States. It may still come, but inflation is not why Bitcoin is on such a tear. Look at CPI or PPI of you don't believe me. Although this does remind me of the Green Lumber Trader story from Taleb. Congrats on the trade!

inflation in consumer goods might not be high, but financial assets have clearly inflated: a quick look at gold denominated SPY shows it.

Why not TSLA/gold? That proves there is inflation! Or I know, BTC/USD, that clearly proves there's lots inflation and look at that bitcoin price is perfectly correlated with it!

(I am only half-joking here, the point is that broad inflation is much much more important than some bull market in this or that asset class)

On a more serious note a lot of commodities are looking really bullish, including some foodstuffs, and that's obviously not good news ...

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