U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#51

Post by scohesc » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

lenkite wrote: post #45

cft wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are jumping into fascism 2.0: - Suppression of ability to speak freely - One party system - The executive organizations of the party agenda are the largest monopolies (instead of Krupp and Messerschmitt we have Google and Amazon for now). I know I will get a lot of downvotes, but i hope it helps at least a couple of people here to know they aren't alone in thinking this now.

The wealth transfer to Bezos and Zuckerberg in 2020 has been terrifying. Bezos has crossed 200 billion! https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/08/26/wor... In general, US billionaires have gained over 1 trillion while small-businesses have perished https://www.statista.com/chart/22068/change-in-wealth-of-bil... You can put considerable blame on those democratic governors and mayors who give shutdown order…

That's absolutely shocking to me. I knew it was a lot but on the order of billions/trillions?

I _REALLY_ do not want to get political, but the timing is just too coincidental to not be mentioned... Now that a certain person is going to be kicked out of office, several politicians of mentioned governors and mayors are finally considering re-opening their cities when only weeks ago they were handing out fines - even when there's been a lackluster start to the US vaccination campaign.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#52

Post by curryst » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

clav3 wrote: post #14

DisjointedHunt wrote: post #5

This is the picture that played out across Spain and Greece in the early part of this decade ((We're a 1/5th part through "this decade, wow) Sudden, elevated incidents of economic catastrophe leading to a massive decline in economic output and the underlying opportunities available to a few generations of intelligent people. This led to a significant decline in wealth creation relative to the rest of the emerging wor…

I think you mean "century" (10years) not "decade" (100years)

You have those backwards. A century is 100 years, a decade is 10 years.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#53

Post by tw04 » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #36

tw04 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What else could you call it? You can't drop taxes on the wealthiest Americans who are seeing the lions share of wealth transferred to them and then have the government spend like a drunken sailor to try to keep the economy from tanking. SOMEONE has to pay for those stimulus checks and it appears right now it's turning into a loan that our great grandchildren will bear the responsibility of so that Bezos and Co can se…

Bezos literally got his phone hacked by foreign intelligence services for being supportive of the party that wants to fix this situation. He's benefiting because Amazon is well run and well positioned for this. He couldn't control how the response was managed and he doesn't control tax policy. Do a better job of blaming the people who are actually at fault, or you are abetting them.

Amazon has been using tax havens for years and years. Amazon has been actively preventing unionization of employees.

Jeff Bezos has personally donated to both political parties. Don't confuse his personal dislike of Trump with some sort of undying support of the Democratic party or their tax policies.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#54

Post by Server6 » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:28 PM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #33

Every day I read a different article about how many jobs there are, and then I read one about how bad unemployment is, then I read one about how the economy is booming, and then I read one about how the economy is declining. This is clown world, and I don't know how we've sustained it this far. Everything seems to be in conflict. Somehow investors have a seemingly irrational confidence in the market. What is going on…

The US economy appears to have bifurcated, which in my opinion is the root cause of a lot of our social unrest issues. The white collar/upper class is doing just fine, hasn't been laid off, and has been minimally affected by COVID. This group is also responsible for most of our economic output - which is turn driving a disconnected wallstreet.

The lower/working class has been completely obliterated. Though these people represent a larger chuck of the population their economic output is less impactful. In other words, Wallstreet is unaffected by bunch of unemployed service people. It's no wonder these people are angry and rallying behind a psudo-fascist like Trump. We need to do something about these inequality issues, otherwise we're on a slippery slope.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#55

Post by dougmwne » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:32 PM UTC

Clent wrote: post #13

dougmwne wrote: post #4

As I have watched these headlines, I have constantly been frustrated by the lack of analysis of what's really going on beyond the data point. Which industries lost jobs? Are the losses temporary due to lockdowns or a sign of an accelerating recession? Which regions lost the most jobs? Which income levels are most affected? What percent of jobless people are being covered by unemployment? And so on. A single data poin…

Are you expecting that analysis to be in the headline itself? Several of the questions you pose are answered in the article. "The losses last month were concentrated among restaurants, bars, hotels and entertainment venues. Educational services, mostly colleges and universities, also cut workers in December. So did film and music studios." " Economists say it could take several years for the labour market to recover…

Where are the graphs? Where is the data to back up those claims? Does "concentrated" mean 20% or 90%? Which economists said that and why did they say it? How many job cuts did the leasure and hospitality sector see? Without any summarized data to back up the claims, they amount to little more than unsourced opinions. I am asking for the opposite of a headline. I want a well source, data backed economic analysis for people who are interested in the deals but who are not economists, updated weekly or monthly in a consistent format.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#56

Post by dillondoyle » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #36

tw04 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What else could you call it? You can't drop taxes on the wealthiest Americans who are seeing the lions share of wealth transferred to them and then have the government spend like a drunken sailor to try to keep the economy from tanking. SOMEONE has to pay for those stimulus checks and it appears right now it's turning into a loan that our great grandchildren will bear the responsibility of so that Bezos and Co can se…

Bezos literally got his phone hacked by foreign intelligence services for being supportive of the party that wants to fix this situation. He's benefiting because Amazon is well run and well positioned for this. He couldn't control how the response was managed and he doesn't control tax policy. Do a better job of blaming the people who are actually at fault, or you are abetting them.

Long post alert...

--

If Bezos's and the other mega billionaires wanted to truly change the tax code for a top .0001% tax rate or whatever they could almost certainly get it done.

How much does Bezos spend on lobbying (not Amazon specific interests)? Virtually a 25 cents to him - .000086

Adelson spent something like $500mm over a decade and he probably has 75% or more of the 'credit' for changing pro-Isreal policy.

Bezos and the rest of them could put a few billion into treasuries and still not lose any basis just use the dividends politically.

In addition if they stopped following shareholder primacy Bezos could direct Amazon to repatriate profits continually and pay the tax. Stop relying on legal 'loopholes' to lower tax % and just pay in 'best faith' and stop pitting local governments against each other in a race to the bottom.

Hell they could even send a check to Treasury but spending only a billion $ lobbying for new laws would be more effective and longer term.

--

Personally I'd like to see something like a sovereign wealth fund that benefits social security/healthcare and directly supports the bottom 40%. Look to Alaska as an example.

Each 'bailout' the taxpayers should get a % of shares for their investment, basically free money from the Fed which is supposed to make its money back anyways. Fannie/Freddit/TARP is an odd example something more like UAE, Norway but passive and only US companies

Go further and make it part of taxes for the mega corps only. 14% profit + a small % of shares annually.

We don't have to turn into CCP with control over Corporate direction. Simply hold the shares passively.

Have to figure out something where corps have no dividends. Maybe a set yearly sale %.

I think about how beneficial it would be to give $1600 cash right now and match another $1600 to each individual in basically a retirement index fund that is only accessible in ___ years or ___ first time homebuyer etc circumstances like a new type of IRA. Hell the government could take a cut in ___ years and it would pay for itself.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#57

Post by dougmwne » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #22

dougmwne wrote: post #4

As I have watched these headlines, I have constantly been frustrated by the lack of analysis of what's really going on beyond the data point. Which industries lost jobs? Are the losses temporary due to lockdowns or a sign of an accelerating recession? Which regions lost the most jobs? Which income levels are most affected? What percent of jobless people are being covered by unemployment? And so on. A single data poin…

There's not lock downs in the US. There are some rules about how businesses can operate, but people aren't locked down. Here there is no in person dining. I think it would be pretty interesting to compare their revenues from 2019 to the periods during the pandemic where they have been open. My impression is that the 2020 numbers would be pretty weak, but I don't know.

I am aware of there being recent regional stay at home orders in California. I believe that is usually what people mean when they use the term "lockdown," at least outside of the Chinese context where they had much more forcefully kept people in their homes. In addition, since we have a global economy, COVID restrictions in other countries could affect US jobs.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#58

Post by imbnwa » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

slowmovintarget wrote: post #18

jorblumesea wrote: post #6

Hardly surprising, the US strategy has been lockdowns (good!) but without consistent aid to people and small businesses (bad!). The stay home and don't spread idea is a good one but needs to be backed up by actual assistance or aid. Pitiful amount of assistance from the federal government. We had one round of adequate funding right as this started and then basically nothing else. Money ran out, Congress was deadlocke…

Right, and banks gave away the money to businesses that were good at paperwork (including some owned by politicians who got preferential treatment). The money, for the most part, didn't go where it was needed. I know it would be next to impossible here in the U.S., but one of the things China did for the lockdown was to declare a rent abatement for anyone not allowed to do business. This wasn't a suspension where you…

Japan also had a similiar response[0].

[0]https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=3848d55f-749c...

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#59

Post by medium_burrito » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

grecy wrote: post #12

scohesc wrote: post #3

Man, it's so frustrating seeing all these businesses shutting down (smaller ones are closing for good), meanwhile I'm sure Bezos and the Silicon crew are reporting record profits this year through food deliveries and amazon purchases. I sometimes find it very _very_ hard to not see this all a transfer of wealth from the middle/lower classes to the upper classes - either calculated beforehand or just being taken advan…

In my small town all the locally-owned and operated coffee shops were forced to close due to government mandates, and most are now closed permanently, because they couldn't afford to pay rent without any customers. McDonald's and Starbucks? Still churning out coffee to people standing in long lines. It's infuriating, but what can you do?

We've normalized political violence on the left and right this year. One side trashes a bunch of cities, the other the capitol. That genie won't go back in the bottle for sure.

Eventually the poors will get angry and united. So far our industry is helping keep them divided, but I'm not sure how long that will last.

Re: U.S. jobless numbers surge as worsening Covid-19 pandemic hurts businesses

#60

Post by rtkwe » Thu, Jan 14, 2021, 6:51 PM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #4

As I have watched these headlines, I have constantly been frustrated by the lack of analysis of what's really going on beyond the data point. Which industries lost jobs? Are the losses temporary due to lockdowns or a sign of an accelerating recession? Which regions lost the most jobs? Which income levels are most affected? What percent of jobless people are being covered by unemployment? And so on. A single data poin…

> Are the losses temporary due to lockdowns or a sign of an accelerating recession?

It's a little hard to know in the moment if a restaurant/store/etc can make it through because of the 'fixed' costs like rent (never mind that those could also be addressed but the GOP is suddenly really concerned about the deficit because there's a Democrat about to be in charge so it's time to be deficit hawks again). Also many huge unknowns hang over any attempt to guess about that and those are how long till vaccines are in enough arms to allow for thing to go more normal, how much support they get from the government, and what their expenses and savings are to begin with.