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Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

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Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How often do big companies like Apple and Intel succeed in righting a sinking ship though? You can’t keep pointing to the one guy that succeeded.

Maybe classifying Intel as a sinking ship may be too much of an exaggeration. Competitors maybe passed them in the last couple of years, but Intel is still in a really solid position to turn things around. Apple's situation was a lot more dramatic. Intel still has a very good market share and can probably take a couple+ years to safely get back on track, in my opinion.

Yeah, absolutely. There's still a lot of excellent engineering being done at Intel that you can't find elsewhere. It's not like Apple where their core product had eroded into irrelevance, they were making tons of undifferentiated products and they literally had nothing of value except the dying embers of fan loyalty to sustain them.

Amongst other things:

- SGX is really far ahead of AMD SEV. The latter is probably easier to sell because it's marketed as "drop in" (encrypts whole VMs), but SEV has been repeatedly hacked or shipped with obvious gaping design holes that they patch later and call features. SGX is a lot more focused, a lot more flexible and frankly a lot more secure.

- Optane NVRAM is completely unique, as far as I know. It's only 10x slower than DRAM which is nothing, but it's persistent! It totally changes the whole IO hierarchy.

- AVX512 / DLBoost are able to hold their own against mid-range GPUs for some AI tasks, which is impressive and useful.

- Their core chips are still very fast. AMD chips are selling more for less, which is a good position for them to be in, and TSMC's process advantage is helping them out for now. But they don't have a truly massive edge in tech like Apple's competitors had when Jobs returned.

- Intel have a long tail of obscure features that AMD doesn't, although it's often hard to know this. SGX and AVX512 are high profile but there are others that are less well known.

I don't count side channels as an issue because it's also an issue for all their competitors, and frankly I found the near single-minded focus on Intel by the security community to be rather misleading. I even read a side channels paper that admitted they suspected AMD had the same problem but they didn't bother to check simply because they didn't have access to any AMD hardware in the first place, which was unusually honest.

Apple's M1 is very impressive in its space, but for high performance cases like servers it's only quad-core - you can't use the little low power cores for much. Apple have shown no interest in making server parts for a long time, and Apple's engineering is bespoke so it tells us nothing about what other ARM vendors can do. So in that space it's still just AMD vs Intel and Intel is a long way from being on its back yet.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, I'm not sure what their plan is other than to keep trying to sell to institutions until everyone makes the switch to someone else. If they actually want to survive long term, there are two paths as I see it: A) Be legitimately better than AMD, this could include opening up the management engine, much higher performance chips at lower price points, or some sort of space magic utilizing their Altera acquisition. B…

They could give up on design and just try to be an American TSMC. There's a lot of interest in that from a national security perspective anyway.

That makes no sense. Intel's designs are fine, industry leading actually. Intel's biggest problem by far is the repeated inability to launch new process nodes. It makes no sense for Intel to give up on what it's good at to focus on the part where it's struggling.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They still have a lot of money in the bank (and more coming in). I see no reason why they can't turn things around if the right people are in charge.

Convince Keller to go back to Intel too and I'll think there could be a chance. (not likely to happen, of course)

No? It might. Keller's new startup doesn't sound particularly impactful or likely to satisfy a need for big career kills (assuming he has any such need).

We don't really know why Keller left. All we can say is that from the outside it looks like he might have just given up in disgust. Having an engineer at the helm again can make a big difference to an engineering organisation.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With Intel's cashflow, they can do both without any difficulty. But yes, they should be the american TSMC.

I'm not sure they really can do both (because doing the TSMC model well intentionally excludes the other). Part of TSMC's offer is that they won't do design, they won't compete with you on design etc. They specialize in the best possible fab and service for your design and that's it.

Doesn’t Samsung make a whole bunch of components and use the components to create products laptops tv phones storage

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#295
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post #3

Pat was a "boy wonder" at Intel and could do no wrong — until Larrabee. I was working at Intel at the time and remember always assuming that Pat would someday be CEO. His departure came as such a shock to a lot of us, as does his return. He might have what it takes to turn Intel around.

There was also Intel's whole pursuit of frequency--they demoed I think it was a 10GHz chip at IDF at one point (and Itanium was essentially an ILP-oriented design)--and resistance to multi-core. Some of it was doubtless Intel convincing themselves they could make it work. But they were also under a lot of pressure from Microsoft who didn't have confidence that they could do SMP effectively--at least that's what a cer…

In fairness it's not like Microsoft are alone in that. Single-thread performance is still incredibly important. The Mill focuses on single thread performance almost exclusively for that reason: nobody ever made the mythical auto-parallelising compilers we were all supposed to have by now, not even for Haskell. The big wins for exploiting parallelism in most ordinary software have been just scaling up lots of independent single-threaded transactional workloads via sharding, and massively concurrent runtimes like the JVM where you can move all the memory management workload onto other cores and out of the critical paths. In terms of ordinary programmers writing ordinary logic, single-threaded perf is still where it's at which is why the M1 has 4 big super-wide cores and 4 small cores rather than 32 medium cores.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's just too late to turn them around" is pretty much what people said about Apple when Steve Jobs returned, though (in fact, it's more or less what I thought as well). As Adam Smith said, "there is a great deal of ruin in a nation", and likewise, big companies generally get more opportunities to reinvent themselves than one would expect.

How often do big companies like Apple and Intel succeed in righting a sinking ship though? You can’t keep pointing to the one guy that succeeded.

IBM still exists. Microsoft still exists. Apple still exists. Notably, AMD also still exists and flourishes again. All of these companies were at one time or another considered dead in the water. Did every big company survive? No. But I don't think there's enough data to make a prediction which fate Intel will see.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this kind of credentialism a bit silly to be honest. If there’s anything with little connection to reality it’s 90% of dissertations.

Trying to call yourself "Dr." when you don't have a real PhD is the worst kind of credentialism. I call my friends with real PhD's by their first names and they're fine with that.

> I call my friends with real PhD's by their first names and they're fine with that.

Would you seriously consider anything else? If a friend of mine with a PhD told me to adress him as "Doctor" I would assume he was joking...

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this kind of credentialism a bit silly to be honest. If there’s anything with little connection to reality it’s 90% of dissertations.

> I find this kind of credentialism a bit silly to be honest I can understand this opinion, but surely the most intensely silly credential is a credential you granted yourself?

I don't know. It's the "appeal to authority" that makes it silly in my eyes. It's sort of the opposite of the scientific mindset, and that bothers me. Stallman or Franklin calling themselves "Doctor" I can definitely live with.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s nothing that restricts AMD to compete solely using x86. I think they’re sitting on an ARM core design from the first Zen arch that they never released.

You’re right, there’s nothing to restrict them except inertia and that they haven’t done it so far when the writing is on the wall. There’s also the coordination problem with windows and third parties. Without vertical integration and tight OS support they’ll fall behind. Something will have to give, but the future doesn’t look good.

The reason that AMD didn't release their ARM design I think is that they know it is better to only have to compete with Intel than being one of the many ARM designs.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe classifying Intel as a sinking ship may be too much of an exaggeration. Competitors maybe passed them in the last couple of years, but Intel is still in a really solid position to turn things around. Apple's situation was a lot more dramatic. Intel still has a very good market share and can probably take a couple+ years to safely get back on track, in my opinion.

Yeah, absolutely. There's still a lot of excellent engineering being done at Intel that you can't find elsewhere. It's not like Apple where their core product had eroded into irrelevance, they were making tons of undifferentiated products and they literally had nothing of value except the dying embers of fan loyalty to sustain them. Amongst other things: - SGX is really far ahead of AMD SEV. The latter is probably ea…

> Apple's M1 is very impressive in its space, but for high performance cases like servers it's only quad-core

this is true, but does not account for the fact that apple M1 is just the first (public) iteration of such cpu.

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