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Intel is dying and we can’t save it

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11–20 of 268 posts

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#11
post #6

Any analysis that says that Intel's death is being precipitated by AMD and Apple rather than by TSMC is pretty much worth ignoring. The fact that they're almost equivalent to those two at 5nm when Intel is at 14nm+++++++++ shows how killer the RTL and tape out folk are at Intel. The real fight has always been at the fab layer.

Anyone know who pars TSMC?

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#12
The question is can Intel find a way to be more AMD than Global Foundries? Or can it just find its fabrication mojo again?

It almost seems like take a conspiracy or sabotage for Intel to fumble such a large lead in process. But all it takes it self-sabotage in forced retirements and financial engineering ahead of innovation. America really needs it's CEOs to re-learn the lessons of the global behemoths of manufacturing we used to have- that re-investing in your own future growth is just as or more important than growing your dividends.

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#13

Intel innovates in process. Everything else is ruled by backwards compatibility and frenetic management scared to stay the course. (The vast majority of projects are killed if they don't tape out in ~2 years.) Intel will shift to a TSMC model. They have the best fabs on the planet, and the best fab engineers. I believe it is something like a 3 millions dollars lost per minute if they are idle. They have already start…

> Intel will shift to a TSMC model.

I think fabbing for outsiders would probably be a good idea, but splitting the fabs out from the designers seems like a bad idea.

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#15
post #6

Any analysis that says that Intel's death is being precipitated by AMD and Apple rather than by TSMC is pretty much worth ignoring. The fact that they're almost equivalent to those two at 5nm when Intel is at 14nm+++++++++ shows how killer the RTL and tape out folk are at Intel. The real fight has always been at the fab layer.

Anyone know who pars TSMC?

What do you mean by "pars TSMC"?

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#16
post #13

Intel innovates in process. Everything else is ruled by backwards compatibility and frenetic management scared to stay the course. (The vast majority of projects are killed if they don't tape out in ~2 years.) Intel will shift to a TSMC model. They have the best fabs on the planet, and the best fab engineers. I believe it is something like a 3 millions dollars lost per minute if they are idle. They have already start…

> Intel will shift to a TSMC model. I think fabbing for outsiders would probably be a good idea, but splitting the fabs out from the designers seems like a bad idea.

Yeah, agreed. The designers / integration will probably get the newest nodes--and the headaches with getting their yields up! I suspect the older high-yield nodes will be filled with tenants pretty quickly. I don't have much knowledge of how this is going, at least from the inside.

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#17

I'd be cautious about the use of "We Can't Save It" in the title of this article. This industry has a history of big players losing steam and then making big comebacks.

That and if you asked 20 years ago what CPUs our desktops will be running, not only would Intel not necessarily have been a popular answer (Many compiler books were written around that time, giving us a guess as to what the academic groupthink was, and they generally treat x86 as a weird ISA soon-to-be obsolete or dead) but Intel's main architectural competitor (ARM) might not've even been mentioned at all.

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#18
post #10
post #3

And that's okay.

If Taiwan ends up getting trampled by China, we'd effectively only have Samsung for cutting edge lithography.

IMO, China will be careful to crush Taiwan economically first so that no one cares when they roll tanks in.

Well, no one other than Taiwan I guess.

Re: Intel is dying and we can’t save it

#19
post #9

Feels like Microsoft during the Balmer years. Instead of Linux and Mac ascendant, you have AMD and ARM... it doesn’t seem impossible to think a Satya Nadella could turn things around.

Realistically, Intel only have to get one process node right to either be right back in the game or buy themselves years more time to play with. They are currently somewhere between 3-5 times behind TSMC lithographically, but nowhere near that far behind in raw performance, which suggests that they could at very least knock AMD off their perch in single-threaded work. Obviously process nodes are much harder than pret…

> 3-5 times behind TSMC lithographically,

I'm not entirely sure that is true. TSMC plays fast and loose with their definition of node. Any fab folks want to speak up?

What I mean by that:

https://www.pcgamesn.com/amd/tsmc-7nm-5nm-and-3nm-are-just-n...

"And also goes some way to explaining why, despite TSMC offering a nominally 7nm process, the general consensus has been that Intel’s 10nm design is pretty much analogous. But what’s 3nm between fabs? At that level, probably quite a lot. But if the 7nm node is more of a branding exercise than genuinely denoting the physical properties of that production process then you can understand why there’s supposedly not a lot in it."

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