11–20 of 206 posts
When I read the headline I thought this article might be about domestic terrorism in the US. When I clicked on the article I saw it it was in fact about COVID-19. This is how I test my assumptions.
I'm not sure where to find Re numbers to compare with his discussed ones for Ireland. ANOTHER huge spike on top of the one that only now is starting to slow would be pretty terrible, or maybe we just saw the same thing already (new strains have been identified here, and behavior seems like it deteriorated before the holidays before getting improved after the spike).
I think it's fairly incomplete to make predictions about the US like the linked article (let alone speculation about government motivations) without discussing or comparing the current US numbers much at all. The author acknowledges that it would be a spread-out-over-time-regionally thing, but looks at aggregate country-level US data that is going to make it hard to see. The political speculation seems a bit out of left field: in the US I did hear a lot about "the winter will be tough" "it will be worse if people travel after getting fatigued with restrictions" "we can't let our guard down even though numbers are improving now". And we've heard a lot about "we need to keep an eye on new strains and such and may have to make further adjustments." Not this head-in-the-sand posture the author is describing.
The new variant accounted for 10-25% of these new cases over the period of that spike. The spike happened two weeks after Christmas when lock-down restrictions were lifted, as planned in October, so people could have a respite after 9 months of all this. Did the government misjudge just how much people would socially interact? You bet.
But to claim that this event is a sign of things to come is to willfully ignore what Irish medical professionals (NPHET) are saying about what the root cause has been and fully buy into the government politicians attempts to cover their butts by blaming the new strain and not their own operational strategy.
Also note that it is coming up to three weeks since Christmas and new infections today is half of what it was last week already and dropping.
On the first graph, that last label makes me distrust the entire article.
02 Jan 2021 is a part of 2020 week 53.
I've noticed a few labeling issues caused by this calendar quirk.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What about it? The fact that it says January 2 while the caption says it's through January 7? I'm assuming that's just because the labels are generated at 11 day increments and Jan 7 isn't 11 days away from the 2nd.
It says 2020 instead of 2021.
On the first graph, that last label makes me distrust the entire article.
Same graph. Happy?
When I read the headline I thought this article might be about domestic terrorism in the US. When I clicked on the article I saw it it was in fact about COVID-19. This is how I test my assumptions.
I thought the exact same thing- "The Ireland Event" being the Catholic-Protestant conflict in the latter part of the 20th century
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It says 2020 instead of 2021.
Ah, that's definitely strange. A bug in the graphing software, maybe?
When I read the headline I thought this article might be about domestic terrorism in the US. When I clicked on the article I saw it it was in fact about COVID-19. This is how I test my assumptions.
I thought the exact same thing- "The Ireland Event" being the Catholic-Protestant conflict in the latter part of the 20th century
To be fair unless you're somehow intune with Europe at that time an average American will not really know how really bad it is (they might have an idea that something bad is happening - but they might described it as mostly targeted attacks to leaders, not knowing about the civilian killings).