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Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

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Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#111

Post by hollerith »

tw04 wrote: post #97
terafo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it isn't a selling point to my mom or her friends Gargantuan battery life isn't a selling point? For laptop? In what universe?

For who? My mom uses her laptop at home 99% of the time, if the battery gets low she plugs it in. She needs a battery that will last 1-2 hours for the 3 times a year she flies. You can find a place to plug in at basically any coffee shop or library you go to. My mom isn't spending 10 hours in a datacenter, so it doesn't really matter to her if the battery life is 3 hours or 12. For the average consumer, battery life…

Even if your mom doesn't care about battery life, she will probably buy a product that is also sold to buyers who do care about battery life, and if the product can meet those buyer's needs with a smaller battery, then your mom's laptop will be lighter.

So, does your mom also not care about the weight of her laptop?

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#112

Post by neogodless »

ghaff wrote: post #17
xwdv wrote: post #6

This won’t change anything, by the time Intel gets back on it’s feet, big techs will be building their own silicon and AMD will have eaten up whatever is left of Intel’s lunch.

It's not about AMD which is (sorry) a marginal factor in all this. It's whether other architectures like Arm and RISC-V really upset the apple cart.

Let's see if this is true, statistically:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/735904/worldwide-x86-int...

Intel/AMD split in x86 currently 61.4% / 38.6%.

If we (very incorrectly assume) 100% of Intel sales were through Apple and were going to all be replaced by Apple, then, even given current trends AMD and Apple would be at roughly 50/50 before long. Looks like OS X is around 16-17% of desktop operating system share though. So the ~82% of buyers still buying x86 are going to continue choosing between Intel and AMD.

Apple M1 has some people believing that suddenly everyone will stop buying x86 chips and buy Apple unless someone releases a competitive ARM based chip for Windows/Linux. I'd like to see some evidence for that premise, though.

Apple's messaging has always been "better designed hardware + better software experience", and yet they still haven't breached 20% market share. A CPU that increases battery life (and yes performs very well) but still can't be bought with your Windows PC isn't going to rapidly change the market share. It could erode it over time, but this is certainly just conjecture, not proof. Let's revisit the conversation in 5 years and see what Apple, Intel and AMD have done, technologically, and what consumers have decided.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#113

Post by andybak »

PedroBatista wrote: post #31

The trillion dollar question is: Is the board leaning into the usual MBA moves 101 and turn Intel into a "services company" gradually going fabless and milking those sweet patents OR will they put the work boots on and start building an actual tech company with the people who actually can save them on the payroll? cutting on the usual contractors meat grinder and invite the vast armies of middle-management and market…

Tangent. I first noticed the phrase "leaning into" a couple of years ago and I'm still not sure I understand how to use it.

It's like "flex". I don't hate them (I hate "relatable" and "addicting" but those are apparently acceptable as real words now) but it's odd how they seem to bubble up suddenly out of nowhere.

(British by the way - that might have a bearing)

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#114

Post by MangoCoffee »

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-services/294637-2020-was-...

>A few years ago, back in 2016, Intel did a “RIF” (reduction in force) of about 11%. Intel had previously done a significant reduction way back in 2006 of about 10%

>In an industry that runs on “tribal knowledge” and “copy exact” and experience of how to run a very, very complex multi billion dollar fab, much of the most experienced, best talent walked out the doors at Intel’s behest, with years of knowledge in their collective heads

bottom line: Intel created the hole by itself and jump into that deep end.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#115

Post by klelatti »

perardi wrote: post #107
klelatti wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Office runs on Macs too! Seriously, I predict we will see Apple successfully attack the sub $1000 laptop market within two years. They sell the iPhone SE with an A13 for $399 so they could easily do so now they no longer have the 'Intel tax'. And the products will be a lot better than the Windows equivalents. Most home users might use Office and that's about it. The allure of the Apple ecosystem will be strong especi…

I’m skeptical. Apple’s bread and butter, as far as Macs go, is the MacBook Air. And by all accounts, they sell a lot of those, and will presumably sell even more, with better margins, now that they’ve gone ARM. Do they really want to undercut that with a cheaper laptop? I suppose it’s possible, if the volume/margins works out, but I’d bet they just keep plugging along with $999–$1500 13-inch laptops.

All fair points but I think that with higher margins it tips the balance towards market share growth. Key issues are 1) can they make an acceptable margin on a good $800 laptop and 2) can they genuinely significantly grow market share rather than lowering average selling price - i.e. can they maintain distinction between $800 and $1000 products. Given what we've seen them do on iPhone and iPad I bet then answer is yes to both of these.

Bear in mind too that after a generation or two they can put the last gen M chips in cheaper products.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#116

Post by PedroBatista »

andybak wrote: post #113
PedroBatista wrote: post #31

The trillion dollar question is: Is the board leaning into the usual MBA moves 101 and turn Intel into a "services company" gradually going fabless and milking those sweet patents OR will they put the work boots on and start building an actual tech company with the people who actually can save them on the payroll? cutting on the usual contractors meat grinder and invite the vast armies of middle-management and market…

Tangent. I first noticed the phrase "leaning into" a couple of years ago and I'm still not sure I understand how to use it. It's like "flex". I don't hate them (I hate "relatable" and "addicting" but those are apparently acceptable as real words now) but it's odd how they seem to bubble up suddenly out of nowhere. (British by the way - that might have a bearing)

Hey don't expect help here, I barely speak my native language correctly let alone English :)

I play it by ear and there's a high chance the "leaning into" expression was used incorrectly. I meant to say, the board was more inclined to follow a roadmap than other options.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#117

Post by nikanj »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #114

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-services/294637-2020-was-... >A few years ago, back in 2016, Intel did a “RIF” (reduction in force) of about 11%. Intel had previously done a significant reduction way back in 2006 of about 10% >In an industry that runs on “tribal knowledge” and “copy exact” and experience of how to run a very, very complex multi billion dollar fab, much of the most experienced, best talent walked o…

Management rule of thumb: For every % you cut from the bottom, you lose from the top. Cut 10% of workforce, and 10% of your best people say "yes" to the next headhunter trying to poach them.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#118

Post by SoSoRoCoCo »

jhloa2 wrote: post #87
SoSoRoCoCo wrote: post #63

Gelsinger was pushed out as CTO after horribly failing to address AMD's competitive threats. I have no idea how he wormed his way back in, but this does not bode well for Intel's future: Gelsinger is proof of the "Peter Principle", being promoted too high. EDIT: I was a bit harsh, toned it down. EDIT 2: This is probably petty, but I can't ignore the fact that there was a significant hubbub at Intel regarding him usin…

Any references on the Pope blessing a wafer? I really want to see this but can't find it

Nope, I can't find it on Google. Nada. Even on Wayback. It may have been internal but I definitely remember it. It was pope Benedict.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#119

Post by ghaff »

neogodless wrote: post #112
ghaff wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about AMD which is (sorry) a marginal factor in all this. It's whether other architectures like Arm and RISC-V really upset the apple cart.

Let's see if this is true, statistically: https://www.statista.com/statistics/735904/worldwide-x86-int... Intel/AMD split in x86 currently 61.4% / 38.6%. If we (very incorrectly assume) 100% of Intel sales were through Apple and were going to all be replaced by Apple, then, even given current trends AMD and Apple would be at roughly 50/50 before long. Looks like OS X is around 16-17% of desktop operating system share…

First of all, ARM is already dominant on non-laptop mobile. Secondly, ARM is growing rapidly for workloads in places like AWS and many think there will be a lot of growth on-prem as well. Apple's symbolically important for Arm in the sense that it shows switching to a non-x86 architecture for a laptop is possible but they're fairly irrelevant from a volume perspective.

If one assumes that x86 remains the dominant architecture in the industry then, yes, it's basically a zero sum market share game between Intel and AMD. But lots of people don't think that represents reality in the second half of this decade.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#120

Post by Spooky23 »

terafo wrote: post #58
tw04 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Roughly 40% of their revenue is consumer chips where, apart from some games optimisation, they are no longer standing out from the crowd, and the leader is arguably Apple, with AMD doing well. You lost me at Apple. Apple owns around 15% of the PC market space and almost the entirety of that is Intel-based systems. Outside of HN, nobody cares about the M1 chip, it isn't a selling point to my mom or her friends. If so…

>it isn't a selling point to my mom or her friends Gargantuan battery life isn't a selling point? For laptop? In what universe?

For consumers? It’s a race to the bottom. Mom wants to pay $200 if anything. My in-laws do their taxes on their phone.
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