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Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

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Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see much similarity between the story of Intel and the story of Boeing. Boeing made an entire line of defective airplanes that could autonomously kill everyone aboard under normal usage. Then, a respiratory virus hammered the travel industry. In contrast, the semiconductor industry is seeing more demand than ever before, and presently undergoing a shortage. Intel has mismanaged 10nm and 7nm, but the company m…

I think Spectre and related vulnerabilities are directly comparable to the 737 MAX debacle, insofar as they reflect poor engineering decisions made directly against the customer in favor of short-term profit. Of course Boeing’s decision was far more devastating and led to the loss of 346 souls, but the pathology that gave rise to both situations (executive hubris, failure to tackle accumulated tech debt) seems quite…

The thing about the max is the deaths were directly observable and obvious. The problem with Spectre/Meltdown is they might have been exploited for years, leading to wars/economic harm that the general public will never be able to tie back to Intel.

On the balance of probabilities I think the Max debacle ended up doing more harm, but IMO Intel (and AMD/ARM to a lesser extent) did get off easy because of the extremely technical nature of the issue.

Edit: I also agree that the max issue has a much more direct Executive Directive -> Harm line to draw. I don't think the Intel CEO went down to engineering and said anything comparable to "create a new version of a plane that needs no new training while having completely new larger more efficient engines, even if that's physically impossible"

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#62
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Roughly 40% of their revenue is consumer chips where, apart from some games optimisation, they are no longer standing out from the crowd, and the leader is arguably Apple, with AMD doing well. You lost me at Apple. Apple owns around 15% of the PC market space and almost the entirety of that is Intel-based systems. Outside of HN, nobody cares about the M1 chip, it isn't a selling point to my mom or her friends. If so…

I think you are vastly underestimating the revolution of what the M1 represents to the PC industry.

M1 is amazing. I think people are also underestimating how fast Intel can catch up.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#63
Gelsinger was pushed out as CTO after horribly failing to address AMD's competitive threats. I have no idea how he wormed his way back in, but this does not bode well for Intel's future: Gelsinger is proof of the "Peter Principle", being promoted too high.

EDIT: I was a bit harsh, toned it down.

EDIT 2: This is probably petty, but I can't ignore the fact that there was a significant hubbub at Intel regarding him using the "Dr" prefix. He scrubbed it from his bio and internal pages when it was pointed it out didn't come from an accredited university and that it was honorary. He also caught flak internally for having the pope bless a wafer for Intel's future success. It was very weird, especially given the high percentage of Muslim engineers at Intel, and its focus on neutrality.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#64

Intel is still making tons of money, so there's still time and Pat seems the right choice. Competition is good and Intel could still be competitive.

For sure. Considering from what depths AMD has managed to recover, people are much too eager to count out Intel.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your market breakdown, but surely not with your assessment. In the consumer segment, you have regular people trying to make vacation videos with software like Adobe Premiere and Adobe Media Encoder, or Magix. Nvenc quality is bad. AMD is horribly slow. The only fast high quality encode is with Intel's dedicated CPU instructions, which both apps heavily promote to their users. And the 30% that you mention…

I think you might over estimate the prevalence of video editing software like this. Adobe don't appear to sell consumer versions anymore, it's only pro subscriptions now. Magix is sold at a "vacation video friendly" price, but doesn't mention Intel in their marketing material. I just don't think the market for home devices is thinking about their video encoding time when they buy a laptop, but I do think they'll use…

> but I do think they'll use an M1 Mac and find it surprisingly fast, or hear from a friend or family member that they are really good.

That only happens in California.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#66

Pat completely missed the boat on building a VMWare cloud when AWS started taking off. Can't say I'm enthused for Intel.

He didn't become CEO of VMware until 2012 which is 6 years after AWS launched. Even if VMware had decided to directly go after AWS, they would have started way behind. Also, for good reasons and bad, it's unclear to me that would have been a great move. IMO, you can look to other trends they could have latched onto more quickly that would have been better fits.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#68
post #50

This spoils any optimism I may have had for Intel. Reading that this came due to a search for "Strategic alternatives" is damning. Intel is like Boeing. They make one thing and they used to make it very well, silicon. If Boeing told you they were looking into alternatives to making planes would you be optimistic? It feels like they're throwing in the towel on being the leader, giving up on trying to catch up process…

TFA doesn't say it came due to a search for "strategic alternatives." It says "Dan Loeb's Third Point hedge fund in December urged Intel's board to explore "strategic alternatives." That is typical hedge fund pressure attempting to squeeze (short term) money out of their investment. The article has two more paragraphs consisting of the hedge fund's cheap shot quotes. It isn't clear Intel's board succumbed to the hedg…

As far as Third Point's public commentary goes, you're right. [0] (Who knows what they said in private.)

"Strategic alternatives" often means "split up the businesses." Silver Lake proposed something similar to AMD in 2015. In the end, the Silver Lake deal didn't happen [1] and AMD stock is up 45x since then.

[0] https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/third-point-full-letter-...

[1] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/215353-amd-talks-with-...

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#69
post #44

The trillion dollar question is: Is the board leaning into the usual MBA moves 101 and turn Intel into a "services company" gradually going fabless and milking those sweet patents OR will they put the work boots on and start building an actual tech company with the people who actually can save them on the payroll? cutting on the usual contractors meat grinder and invite the vast armies of middle-management and market…

Pat Gelsinger fits the second option better, he has an actual engineering background and worked on some of the most important Intel products early in his career.

Swan was utterly the first option.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#70

The trillion dollar question is: Is the board leaning into the usual MBA moves 101 and turn Intel into a "services company" gradually going fabless and milking those sweet patents OR will they put the work boots on and start building an actual tech company with the people who actually can save them on the payroll? cutting on the usual contractors meat grinder and invite the vast armies of middle-management and market…

Or are they looking for that one acquisition that (this time!) will fix everything?

Arguably a re-aquisition. Gelsinger was at Intel for 30 years.
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