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Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

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Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#61
post #39

For some schools it might be possible to have full in-person classes safely. I think Caltech could do it, and maybe MIT. Maybe Harvey Mudd, too. Oh, and probably the US military academies. Here's how I imagine it could work at Caltech. 1. For undergraduates, give everyone a rapid response COVID test when they arrive. Anyone who fails is quarantined until they are no longer infectious. 2. Once an undergraduate is clea…

Reading your comment really takes me back. "STEM undergrads > non-STEM undergrads" For me, this superiority complex heavily tainted the open campus, freedom of thought feel colleges strive to represent. Constant bragging about whose curriculum is more challenging is one thing, but suggesting without a whiff of substantiation STEM majors wont spread covid as much because they "understand the science and mathematical m…

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Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#62
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of my dating age friends looking for relationships to blossom into marriages are really frustrated right now with the state of affairs. I'm beyond those years but I can appreciate their frustrations with the halting of their searches.

There will likely be less kids born in the next 6-18 months.

I'm not so sure. There is a quarantine-baby effect as well. People planning to have babies eventually have a strong incentive to do it now as they are home and can't get distracted with many other interim plans.

I'd like to see what happens.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#63
post #44
post #28

This is pretty sad, the four years of college easily will be the easiest years of socialization and dating a young person will ever have. To have at a minimum two of these years taken from you, is to lose something you'll never get back.

If I were in undergrad right now I would have probably just taken a leave of absence until campus is back open rather than pay full tuition for zoom class.

A lot of schools weren’t allowing deferred enrollment for freshmen or transfers this year. If you’re part of the group that has to pay full tuition, the math gets hard but what would you do for that year? Just play video games for a year at your parents home? That’s essentially what you’d be signing up for most students. I guess you have to ask how long are you willing to put your life on hold. My partner decided to do her schooling online even though she knew it would be one of the worst things ever for her.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#64
post #39

For some schools it might be possible to have full in-person classes safely. I think Caltech could do it, and maybe MIT. Maybe Harvey Mudd, too. Oh, and probably the US military academies. Here's how I imagine it could work at Caltech. 1. For undergraduates, give everyone a rapid response COVID test when they arrive. Anyone who fails is quarantined until they are no longer infectious. 2. Once an undergraduate is clea…

> Once an undergraduate is cleared to move in, they must not leave campus for the rest of the term. This should be fairly easy. Maybe CalTech is very different, but I truly cannot imagine this at MIT. Students go out and party, even at top programs that have a disproportionate number of "traditionally nerdy" people. Further, students aren't the only people present. Faculty exist, and some of them can bring Covid into…

> Maybe CalTech is very different, but I truly cannot imagine this at MIT. Students go out and party, even at top programs that have a disproportionate number of "traditionally nerdy" people.

It is possible things have changed substantially over the years, but when I was there and definitely for quite a long time after, attending parties outside of campus was very rare at Caltech. Parties on campus were not common either, and most of them were parties within a house.

Caltech undergraduate life is kind of like being in a science monastery. It's not merely a school of nerds. It's a school of the people who nerds think are too nerdy.

On the STEM vs. non-STEM issue, I'm not treating "fresh out of high school engineering students as rational actors and everybody else as ignorant buffoons".

Everyone, without exception, needs to rely on expert opinion in some matters. No one has the time and capacity to become expert themselves in all fields that are relevant to all important decisions we have to make in our lives.

Sadly, in many of the areas where we have to rely on experts there are many with financial or ideological interests in getting people to not listen to the experts. This results in people being presented with conflicting opinions all purporting to be from or backed by experts in the relevant areas.

One of the best ways to resolve such a situation is, if you can do it, is to learn enough about the subject yourself to be able to look at the same information and methods that were used to produce the conflicting opinions and determine which came from actual experts and which did not.

In this one very particular area, namely determining if a particular set of behavioral rules and procedures to prevent a particular community from getting COVID and to limit its spread within that community if it does get in is scientifically justified, STEM students are going to be more likely to be able to do the type of evaluation described in the prior paragraph than are non-STEM students.

Would you say I'm being a "STEMlord" if I said Caltech students were more likely than, say, students in Julliard's piano bachelor's degree program to be able to evaluate evaluate whether someone making a claim about the theoretical upper limit on the efficiency of a classical thermodynamic engine is correct?

It works the other way, too. There are plenty of areas where I'd expect that Julliard piano student to be way better than any Caltech student at evaluating conflicting purported experts. It is just that those areas don't happen to be relevant to the specific problem of convincing a group of people that specific anti-COVID measures are correct.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#65
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Once an undergraduate is cleared to move in, they must not leave campus for the rest of the term. This should be fairly easy. Maybe CalTech is very different, but I truly cannot imagine this at MIT. Students go out and party, even at top programs that have a disproportionate number of "traditionally nerdy" people. Further, students aren't the only people present. Faculty exist, and some of them can bring Covid into…

> Maybe CalTech is very different, but I truly cannot imagine this at MIT. Students go out and party, even at top programs that have a disproportionate number of "traditionally nerdy" people. It is possible things have changed substantially over the years, but when I was there and definitely for quite a long time after, attending parties outside of campus was very rare at Caltech. Parties on campus were not common ei…

> Would you say I'm being a "STEMlord" if I said Caltech students were more likely than, say, students in Julliard's piano bachelor's degree program to be able to evaluate evaluate whether someone making a claim about the theoretical upper limit on the efficiency of a classical thermodynamic engine is correct?

If I personally knew a bunch of Julliard students who did a better job at this than Caltech students, then I'd certainly ask for some actual data backing up your claim. I see no reason why a freshmen majoring in CS is more likely to make healthy pandemic choices than a freshmen majoring in history.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#66
Its highway robbery for universities to charge the same tuition for "remote learning" that they do for in-person schooling. The dozen or so hours of academic instruction is only a fraction of the college experience that one pays for. Socialization, library access, gym access, athletics, dining services, student clubs and a whole other host of services and facilities that are denied to students during "remote learning" represent substantial value that students are paying for but no longer receiving. This is even more egregious when many students are going deeply into debt in order to pay their tuition.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2017 flu season: 45 million infections, 61k deaths 2017 death rate: 0.14% 2020 covid: 91 million infections (as of dec 11 2020), 294,535 deaths (as of dec 12 2020) 2020 death rate: 0.32% Covid is about 2-3 times as bad a bad flu season. The vast, vast majority of people under 60 do not die. There is no reason to shut everything down and ruin businesses, the economy and people's lives. Yes people will die. People die…

Your numbers are wrong. There are 21 million COVID-19 cases in the U.S., and 350,000 deaths. That's a CFR of 1.67%. You picked the number of worldwide cases and compared it to the number of U.S. deaths.

No, literally look at the CDC links I provided. It says "Estimated COVID-19 Infections, Symptomatic Illnesses, and Hospitalizations—United States" - 91 million

The key is estimated. Most covid cases go unreported.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your numbers are wrong. There are 21 million COVID-19 cases in the U.S., and 350,000 deaths. That's a CFR of 1.67%. You picked the number of worldwide cases and compared it to the number of U.S. deaths.

No, literally look at the CDC links I provided. It says "Estimated COVID-19 Infections, Symptomatic Illnesses, and Hospitalizations—United States" - 91 million The key is estimated. Most covid cases go unreported. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Well, let's use the CDC estimates for comparison:

  Estimated flu infections per season: ~25,000,000
  Confirmed COVID cases last 12 months: ~22,000,000
  Estimated COVID cases using 7x reporting ratio (CDC): ~154,000,000
If we compare CDC estimates for both diseases, COVID is 6 times more infectious than the flu. So, CFR doesn't tell the whole story, and it is disingenuous to pretend that it does. I think your original comment calculated an estimated CFR of 0.278% for COVID (253k deaths divided by 91M cases by end of November), while the estimated CFR for the flu is 0.16% (40k deaths divided by 25M cases per season). Using these numbers, the CFR of COVID is 1.7 times that of the flu. But, when multiplied by the infectiousness, it kills 10 times as many people. A comparison of the absolute death toll matches this result:

  Estimated flu deaths per season: ~40,000
  Confirmed COVID deaths last 12 months: 360,000
Note that the number of COVID deaths is under-representative because several months accounted for a period of low-spread, whereas flu is already endemic in the population. COVID was roughly considered widespread in April, so that's 9 months of full-on proliferation with 356,000 deaths. Extrapolating for the next three months projects ~475,000 deaths from April 2020 thru March 2021. This is probably an underestimate because if the next two months are like December (as projected), we'll hit just over 500,000 deaths. Now, we don't even know how many COVID deaths are unreported, but for the sake of argument we can just pretend that this is negligible.

So, even a modest estimate of projected deaths also confirms that COVID over 10 times deadlier than the flu in absolute terms.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, literally look at the CDC links I provided. It says "Estimated COVID-19 Infections, Symptomatic Illnesses, and Hospitalizations—United States" - 91 million The key is estimated. Most covid cases go unreported. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Well, let's use the CDC estimates for comparison: Estimated flu infections per season: ~25,000,000 Confirmed COVID cases last 12 months: ~22,000,000 Estimated COVID cases using 7x reporting ratio (CDC): ~154,000,000 If we compare CDC estimates for both diseases, COVID is 6 times more infectious than the flu. So, CFR doesn't tell the whole story, and it is disingenuous to pretend that it does. I think your original co…

It does spread faster than the flu, but the CFR is not that much different than the flu like you said. I'm not afraid of the flu and most people I know are not. How about instead of shutting down the entire economy and destroying many people's lives, we say to the people that are afraid of it to isolate? The government could have paid for them to receive their groceries through an app. It probably would have been cheaper than the massive amount of money spent trying to get the economy to recover after destroying it. Most of the deaths are in nursing homes so we should have quarantined nursing homes also instead of destroying the entire economy. That probably would have cut the deaths by at least 50%. The average healthy person has nothing to fear from COVID.

I've been to many large parties, I went to 3 Stop the Steal protests (and came into contact with probably 10,000 people easily), I never wear a mask, I take no precautions and I'm fine.

Re: Stanford pulls plug on the return of freshmen and sophomores to campus

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will likely be less kids born in the next 6-18 months.

I'm not so sure. There is a quarantine-baby effect as well. People planning to have babies eventually have a strong incentive to do it now as they are home and can't get distracted with many other interim plans. I'd like to see what happens.

Yah, I think I read there will be more babies after this period. So running three months back from the middle of the pandemic (say in July) so maybe a lot of April babies? Makes sense, put a fertile man and women together in a confined space and for a prolonged period of time and things will naturally happen.
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