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Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics for nearly $1B

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Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics for nearly $1B

#73
post #9

Makes sense. South Korea, where Hyundai is based, has by far the most robots per manufacturing employee [1]. They will make good use of the technology. [1] https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5f719cf9f44...

South Korea is also very advanced in using automated weaponry for their military:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SGR-A1

Soon they may not only have sentry guns, but frickin' bots with frickin lasers attached to their back patrolling the DMZ.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics for nearly $1B

#74

It blows my mind that a chat client is worth over 26 times what Boston Dynamics is.

It's always easy to overvalue products/services that are based on number of users than on actual improvements in a narrow but highly technical field with a super-high barrier of entry. The number of active users is one of the most enticing metric a VC firm can lay its eyes on. Edit: For context, the parent comment is talking about Salesforces' acquisition of Slack [0] [0] https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/01/salesforce-…

Boston dynamics might indeed advance the state of the art but not be able to capture the value ther advancements bring. Also, how big is their competitive moat? Does, say Uber care if their deliveries are done via Boston Dynamics robots or via some competitor? What if in 10 years some research group makes a new company that can deliver the same dancing robots that Boston Dynamics can?

The concept of how moats work in the context of a social app vs how to monetize it is well understood.

Also I'm not saying that the price of Slack was fair. It's entirely possible that the purchase will be a regretful one for salesforce, similar to the regrets that Tumblr's buyer must have felt.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics for nearly $1B

#75

It blows my mind that a chat client is worth over 26 times what Boston Dynamics is.

There is value in Boston Dynamics, but will take long time till they create mass market products. They will have specialized products for special areas, but those will be small series, where running production is expensive and a high margin isn't possible. (If a human is cheaper than the machine there is little reason to buy the machine)

Value for WhatsApp comes from the fact that it threatened Facebook's business model. If people use other than their products they have an issue. There is also an option for revenue growth (not only ads, but also payment processing etc.) Question is how that will play out with current outcry regarding Terms of service changes ... whether that will have an impact. But for Facebook certainly valuable decision.

Slack and Salesforce is more interesting. There is of course the market - others tried to acquire Slack as well, driving the price up. How much it will bring Salesforce (also in Cross-Sales "hey, want some CRM which integrates well with Slack? We have something!") is to be seen ...

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics for nearly $1B

#76
post #29

I realize Korea is an ally, but this seems like tech we wouldn't want to lose the domestic capability to produce. Or tech we wouldn't want to cede the lead on. Why would Darpa pour so much money in for this outcome?

Considering that American big tech has now conquered the world, they (the US govt) probably don’t want to appear nationalistic.

Re: Hyundai buys Boston Dynamics for nearly $1B

#77

It blows my mind that a chat client is worth over 26 times what Boston Dynamics is.

I have no idea whether Hyundai made a good deal for itself, but I think it's healthy to approach any acquisition or valuation with skepticism.

Corporate M&A seems especially affected by misperception and bad incentives. Executives often want to expand their kingdoms, even at the expense of shareholders. They also suffer from "shiny new object" syndrome - buying whatever's sexy.

Potentially worse, there's the "winner's curse" in auctions. About 7 years ago, Joseph A. Bank tried to buy its larger competitor, Men's Wearhouse. Men's Wearhouse then surprised Bank's execs by making a counter-offer. They got into a bidding war against each other, neither side wanting to "lose," with Men's Wearhouse "winning" by buying its smaller competitor for $1.8B. And we know, even pre-pandemic, how that story turned out!

Point is: don't weigh too heavily what other people will pay for a company today... weigh more what your analysis suggests the company will produce in the future (not what other people will pay in the future).

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