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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I would expect a technocratic forum like HN to suggest. America's most poverty stricken regions have had public education for nearly a century with almost no meaningful improvement in prospects. Tell me how rural poverty in West Viriginia is reduced by giving people humanities degrees. Better educated voters? Who cares, the poor have no representation of merit anyway; their choices are to vote for one pa…

Public education in the US is funded by neighborhood, so wealthy neighborhoods have far better schools and poverty stricken regions have terrible schools.

Anybody who wants greater social mobility can recognize why that’s a bad thing.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I would expect a technocratic forum like HN to suggest. America's most poverty stricken regions have had public education for nearly a century with almost no meaningful improvement in prospects. Tell me how rural poverty in West Viriginia is reduced by giving people humanities degrees. Better educated voters? Who cares, the poor have no representation of merit anyway; their choices are to vote for one pa…

Public education in the US is funded by neighborhood, so wealthy neighborhoods have far better schools and poverty stricken regions have terrible schools.

That really depends on the state. Some states redistribute tax money across school districts.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#213
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again - the best educated voter still only has two choices, and neither of these represent the poor. Do people on HN really think the very rich or the very poor were at all bothered by the Capitol riots? Government is irrelevant to both groups, in different ways.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

It's always been possible for everybody in the US to run for for office but how likely is it without having serious money?

Everything from advertising to filing comes with serious cost in US federal election. In Texas alone it costs $3k to just get on a primary ballot for a federal election as a representative.

Even the candidates you mentioned had to raise over $1MM just to run their elections.

Yes, it's possible just very unlikely if you don't have the cash.

Sources:

Cori Bush Amount Raised: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=M...

Madison Cawthorne Amount Raised: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=N...

Marjorie Taylor Amount Raised: https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=G...

Filing in the 2020 Democratic and Republican Primary: https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/candidates/guide/2020/...

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being downvoted because discourse should never be narrowed, period. Ideas should be thrown into the public square, in the full light of day, and judged on their merits.

Hopefully you realize the hypocrisy of graying out my comment in the name of promoting discourse, but I doubt it. Ideas should absolutely be judged on their merits; here we agree. Too bad that's not how humans work. Instead, they tend to choose whichever truth they like best based on how it makes them feel; politicians know this, which is why they don't bother crafting logically sound arguments backed with evidence.…

Don't think of your comment as being grayed out, think of your discourse as being narrowed.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#215

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

Yet education does not help. Being told about the events does not really capture the emotions that lead to them. Education is the reason the details are different but fundamentally nothing gets prevented.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#216
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public education in the US is funded by neighborhood, so wealthy neighborhoods have far better schools and poverty stricken regions have terrible schools.

That really depends on the state. Some states redistribute tax money across school districts.

Note, for instance, that the whole of New York City is one school district.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I would expect a technocratic forum like HN to suggest. America's most poverty stricken regions have had public education for nearly a century with almost no meaningful improvement in prospects. Tell me how rural poverty in West Viriginia is reduced by giving people humanities degrees. Better educated voters? Who cares, the poor have no representation of merit anyway; their choices are to vote for one pa…

Public education in the US is funded by neighborhood, so wealthy neighborhoods have far better schools and poverty stricken regions have terrible schools.

> Public education in the US is funded by neighborhood

Sometimes, usually not. It's often (but not always) funded by “school district”, which is often much larger than a neighborhood and may be a large metro area, and often with statewide funding mechanisms that reduce disparity between districts to less than it would be on its own.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again - the best educated voter still only has two choices, and neither of these represent the poor. Do people on HN really think the very rich or the very poor were at all bothered by the Capitol riots? Government is irrelevant to both groups, in different ways.

God, this is true, but most HN posters can't see it for some reason. Princeton already proved America is an oligarchy with a paper that was released a few years back, showing that when the rich wanted a certain policy implemented, it was passed into law at any almost 80% rate, compared with the "average voter" wanting a policy made into law at about a 50% rate. Here's that article: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites…

The difference between 80% and 50% is very significant but if you want a positive angle:

1. Average voters still pass laws at a significant rate 2. An elite university publishes the study

It's very far from perfection but I don't think it's an oligarchy. There is always going to be a bias in favor of the rich. That's what money is for.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#219
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again - the best educated voter still only has two choices, and neither of these represent the poor. Do people on HN really think the very rich or the very poor were at all bothered by the Capitol riots? Government is irrelevant to both groups, in different ways.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

Polical Parties are the problem, and can in no way be a solution to the problem

To update George Washington for current year: While political parties may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled politicians will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.

If we want better governance in the US, we must limit or eliminate political parties

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hopefully you realize the hypocrisy of graying out my comment in the name of promoting discourse, but I doubt it. Ideas should absolutely be judged on their merits; here we agree. Too bad that's not how humans work. Instead, they tend to choose whichever truth they like best based on how it makes them feel; politicians know this, which is why they don't bother crafting logically sound arguments backed with evidence.…

Don't think of your comment as being grayed out, think of your discourse as being narrowed.

It turns out we are both fine with narrowing discourse, just as I suspected.
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