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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#201
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again - the best educated voter still only has two choices, and neither of these represent the poor. Do people on HN really think the very rich or the very poor were at all bothered by the Capitol riots? Government is irrelevant to both groups, in different ways.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

What do you make of this study by professors from Princeton and Northwestern that finds that "economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence"?

Source: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...

What do you make of Jimmy Carter saying in 2014 that "America doesn't have a functioning democracy right now"?

Source: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/nsa-affaere-jimmy-car... Translated from German: https://archive.is/Lhlq2

It might be unpleasant to acknowledge, but there is increasingly overwhelming evidence to suggest that the major American political parties are indeed "outside and beyond the reach of 'normal' citizens".

In 2017, the DNC argued in federal court that, as a private corporation, it was entitled to select whichever candidate it preferred for the general election regardless of the preferences of "normal citizens" who voted in the party's primary election. This was in a hearing for a lawsuit filed by Sanders supporters who weren't happy about the DNC working with the Clinton campaign and against the Sanders campaign, as revealed by WikiLeaks.

Source: https://ivn.us/posts/dnc-to-court-we-are-a-private-corporati... and, for convenience, https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/independent-voter-network-ivn...

Growing up in a blue household, social group, and state, I'm less familiar with the history of the anti-democratic machinations of the RNC, but my understanding of the Trump phenomenon was that, at least early on, many Republican voters were attracted to the idea of a political outsider who they hoped wouldn't sell them out like they felt RNC-affiliated Republicans had been doing.

Some contemporary sources seem to back up that interpretation: https://archive.fo/2Vidx (Wall Street Journal) and https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/...

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#202
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, there appears to be a "skeptical" strain of discourse now that is just as arrogant, but in the other direction. As in, I disagree with the mainstream cultural view on a topic, so I therefore have the correct view on it. This is best exemplified by someone like Michael Tracy or Glenn Greenwald IMO. In my view they're more wrong than right, but they do have the occasional nugget where they do see thr…

I think you have something there. There’s certainly a phase when you stop trusting the mainstream where you overdo it and think everything is wrong. The goal should probably be a balance. And probably realizing that nobody including the government or media deserves your blind trust.

I agree. They certainly have a valuable role to play. But if you play with fire like that, you can't get mad when twitter viciously dunks on you for being stupid.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#203
Turchin has also correctly predicted that the elections would be very close :

http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/america-in-november-202...

However, so far he has been "wrong" about his "prediction" that after that the events would be completely unpredictable. In fact, so far events have been very predictable - this might change after the inauguration though?

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#204
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mainstream media talking points vary from Trump and his family are breaking norms and traditions in a very dangerous way to our country, all the way to the Biden crime family is going to ruin this country. With major undertones of a lot of hurt, anger, and feeling like there is no hope among minorities or rural whites depending on which sources you choose to consume. Both are true, both need addressed. And it’s likel…

I get routinely modded down on this site for pointing out issues that are ostensibly too political, like workplace discrimination. But on this same site, somoene can literally carry on a discussion echoing the (proven false) propaganda points ("biden crime family"? dear lord) and it stays up without downvote for (checks watch) an hour and counting. Everything this past week has been a chest x-ray of our collective sp…

I’ve noticed that too. Seems that no matter what I post I get downvotes. Typically without any explanation or response.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So perhaps a better claim would be that the new discourse is unduly confined and the older modes of discourse are gone.

That's a better starting point for a productive discussion, but still hyperbolic. Moreover, do you notice that my comment is being grayed out as people who disagree are downvoting it? A lot of people who claim to value discussion really don't; not on Hacker News, and not elsewhere.

You're being downvoted because discourse should never be narrowed, period.

Ideas should be thrown into the public square, in the full light of day, and judged on their merits.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#206

I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes) and I couldn't put it down when I read it over the summer. Several peop…

> we could very well have a bloody revolution or war considering the unaddressed underlying conditions A revolution/civil war in the US is impossible. The US military is the best-equipped in the world (with tons of equipment no private individual can ever hope to acquire) and backed by the world's leading intelligence community. Regardless of how angry or desperate American citizens are, they don't have the capacity…

If you would have asked me one year and one month ago if I thought San Francisco and New York would be ghost towns today, I would have said exactly the same thing.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a better starting point for a productive discussion, but still hyperbolic. Moreover, do you notice that my comment is being grayed out as people who disagree are downvoting it? A lot of people who claim to value discussion really don't; not on Hacker News, and not elsewhere.

You're being downvoted because discourse should never be narrowed, period. Ideas should be thrown into the public square, in the full light of day, and judged on their merits.

Hopefully you realize the hypocrisy of graying out my comment in the name of promoting discourse, but I doubt it.

Ideas should absolutely be judged on their merits; here we agree. Too bad that's not how humans work. Instead, they tend to choose whichever truth they like best based on how it makes them feel; politicians know this, which is why they don't bother crafting logically sound arguments backed with evidence. They play on peoples' emotions.

Moreover, the university is not a public square. You attend as a student, which means you are there to learn, not to share your thoughts like it's a real-life HN thread. Don't want to learn the material? That's completely fine. The solution is to not sign up for the class, not to whine about how "discourse is gone" just because the teacher doesn't want to waste time on every edgy kid's opinions. People didn't pay massive sums of money to hear you talk. They paid to learn from experts.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#208

I expect Marshall Law declared within 24 hours. Before impeachment vote. Pelosi asked the military to ignore commands from Trump. They turned her down, and warned this is an act of sedition. So that tells me they are on his side. I don't think Trump would accept being barred from running in 2024 if the impeachment vote is allowed to go through. This is his only move right now. The national guard is already in the cap…

Now that I think about it. He won't do it. They would arrest him.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

This is what I would expect a technocratic forum like HN to suggest. America's most poverty stricken regions have had public education for nearly a century with almost no meaningful improvement in prospects. Tell me how rural poverty in West Viriginia is reduced by giving people humanities degrees. Better educated voters? Who cares, the poor have no representation of merit anyway; their choices are to vote for one pa…

I would argue that while it may not help rural West Virginia, the location, it can (and does, just not for everyone!) benefit some subset of that WV population who does manage to become educated and leave for a better prospects in a city or some other part of the country.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#210
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public education in the US is awful and lags nearly the entire developed world. Humanities degrees are not terribly useful, but boiling all education down to humanities degrees is a blatant strawman that signals a lot about your willingness to have a nuanced discussion. I think it's fairly self evident that investment in the future is what improves the future and education is probably the most important and significa…

Good education system does not neatly translate to, say, economic success. Italy has top-class university system, much older than Columbus, and yet the country seems to be stuck in stagnation for last 20 years and the talented fresh graduates of those top schools move abroad.

You still need a government that can get out of it's own way, legislatively, while still providing an environment (or the right incentives for one) where business can and does get done.
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