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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#171

Post by CyberDildonics »

anewaccount2021 wrote: post #66
74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

This is what I would expect a technocratic forum like HN to suggest. America's most poverty stricken regions have had public education for nearly a century with almost no meaningful improvement in prospects. Tell me how rural poverty in West Viriginia is reduced by giving people humanities degrees. Better educated voters? Who cares, the poor have no representation of merit anyway; their choices are to vote for one pa…

Public education in the US is funded by neighborhood, so wealthy neighborhoods have far better schools and poverty stricken regions have terrible schools.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#172

Post by tsimionescu »

WatchDog wrote: post #38
onethought wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, if you are on the right (political spectrum) you do not want to encourage higher education, it shifts people to the left, as analytical thinking starts undoing idealism. US is a good example of this, with most universities having more left communities around them. Perhaps it is an intentional long play by the Right in Australia to pursue this kind of minimisation of education

I don't think analytical thinking has anything to do with political leaning, I'd argue that the US higher education system particularly the humanities is a breeding ground of idealogues. I would say the tendency of education to lean left is largely due to left leaning people being more attracted to working in academia.

I don't think there is any general rule, the fact that higher educated elites in the US and western Europe happen to be left leaning is a self-perpetuating accident of history. In many other countries, higher educated elites are right-leaning.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#173

Post by leereeves »

jeffbee wrote: post #150
leereeves wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the increase in the murder rate in 2020 wasn't a spike in a single city, it was a spike nationwide.

Right, it just doesn't seem that dramatic in context. They are saying a 13% year-over-year bump in the homicide rate is the greatest ever recorded, but there was an 11% bump from 2014-2015 and 10% from 2015 to 2016, according to the FBI UCR. So 13% is the highest but is it really such a shocking figure?

AIUI, it's not saying that the increase in 2020 was only 13%, merely that 13% would be the largest increase in 50 years.

We'll have to wait and see what the final figure is, but the midyear figure in the article is much higher:

> Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November).

(Note: I have no idea if Jeff Asher is a credible source, but NPR seems to think so.)

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#174

Post by eloff »

inglor_cz wrote: post #136
eloff wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public education in the US is awful and lags nearly the entire developed world. Humanities degrees are not terribly useful, but boiling all education down to humanities degrees is a blatant strawman that signals a lot about your willingness to have a nuanced discussion. I think it's fairly self evident that investment in the future is what improves the future and education is probably the most important and significa…

Good education system does not neatly translate to, say, economic success. Italy has top-class university system, much older than Columbus, and yet the country seems to be stuck in stagnation for last 20 years and the talented fresh graduates of those top schools move abroad.

I would say it's one very important factor among others. Ray Dalio outlines many of the factors involved in nations rising and falling, including education in a freely available online book. I've found it an interesting read, although he takes a while to get to the point.[1]

[1] https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#175

Post by eloff »

AndrewUnmuted wrote: post #138
eloff wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public education in the US is awful and lags nearly the entire developed world. Humanities degrees are not terribly useful, but boiling all education down to humanities degrees is a blatant strawman that signals a lot about your willingness to have a nuanced discussion. I think it's fairly self evident that investment in the future is what improves the future and education is probably the most important and significa…

I'm not entirely clear on how many nations are able to be compared with the US within the developed world. Given its size, configuration, and geopolitical contexts, the US has few comparable nations against which we can test. I guess we can say Russia is closest, followed by Canada & Mexico, then the entire EU and the CCP. India maybe? > boiling all education down to humanities degrees is a blatant strawman No, it is…

Are you the OP posting under a different account?

> Given its size, configuration, and geopolitical contexts, the US has few comparable nations against which we can test.

Why does country size affect academic performance of students?

Russia, China, India, and Mexico are not developed nations. I wouldn't compare their educational results with the US. I'd be more interested in Canada, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and the European nations. The USA compares near the bottom of this list.

> No, it isn't. The other nations I just listed by comparison churn out very few humanities degrees.

You used humanities degrees as a strawman argument in the OP. You asserting you did not do that is just a waste of effort. Perhaps you need to look up what a strawman argument is?

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#177

Post by [deleted] »

AniseAbyss wrote: post #71
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

Yeah we have fascists in Germany again. People forget. And who the fuck really reads history books anyways?

[deleted]

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#178

Post by vmception »

inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

yes but how many false positives are there from other clairvoyants and how many of those have just as succinct rational

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#179

Post by jessaustin »

selimthegrim wrote: post #140
jessaustin wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vishva Hindu Parishad? Has any American even heard of that? Why bother inventing something so arcane?

There was quite a bit of press about her links with Modi and the Modi-supporting diaspora

It's not clear if this whole goofy thread arises from anti-Hindu prejudice or opposition to democracy?

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#180

Post by graeme »

74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

Education is not experience. It can help deal with situations similar to the past but it is far from sufficient to make up for the 50 year problem.
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