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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#101

Post by VLM »

onethought wrote: post #15
BLKNSLVR wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking b) and running with it, education is, in my opinion, the silver bullet for a number of societies ills. It's very interesting to note how higher education in the US has such a high barrier to entry that it actively discourages outsiders. It feels as if the Australian Government wants to move in the same direction, and / or have already been doing so for a few years. Education has its own benefits to society as…

True, if you are on the right (political spectrum) you do not want to encourage higher education, it shifts people to the left, as analytical thinking starts undoing idealism. US is a good example of this, with most universities having more left communities around them. Perhaps it is an intentional long play by the Right in Australia to pursue this kind of minimisation of education

How a "shift" interacts with identity politics is interesting to consider.

One cannot "shift" demographic group merely by attending classes and many groups are highly polarized by demographic group often in excess of 3 to 1 for one party or another.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#102

Post by selimthegrim »

tathougies wrote: post #93
kaitai wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

they are increasingly beyond the reach of normal citizens. If your views do not align 100% with either party, you are increasingly marginalized. See the treatment of Donald Trump (a republican outsider, and not a traditional conservative by any means, but not a democrat in principle either) by the Republican party. For the past four years, republicans have refused to pass bills due to not matching ideological purity…

Gabbard is very lucky she is not in trouble for not registering as an agent of a foreign government after all her connections with VHP

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#103

Post by vulcan01 »

marcusverus wrote: post #80
dehrmann wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How was the the revolutionary period "moral convulsion?" Political, sure, but not moral.

The widespread adoption of the civil libertarian ethos (under the guise of unalienable rights, endowed by a creator) might be the greatest moral convulsion in human history.

> civil libertarian ethos

People living in the colonies already had this. When Parliament started asserting more control over the colonies, they fought to restore their control over government.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#104

Post by f430 »

I still think this article is on track to be correct. 2020 was a precipitation of the stormy clouds that will begin raining in 2021.

Lot of people have this weird idea that 2020 was somehow the last of it. I think it was the beginning and 2021 and onwards will be a tough battle.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#105

Post by rossdavidh »

Barrin92 wrote: post #5

it's an interesting idea, kind of foundation trilogy psychohistory like but it's also in some ways very obvious and hard to disprove at the same time. He gives two generations as the length for instability to dwell up, and if you move that like a sliding window over American history most of the time it'd probably be true depending on your definition of violent upheaval. However if you expand it to other countries I t…

The full model posits two cycles, one of which involves these "fathers-and-sons" cycles, because there are deep underlying problems. One generation tries to solve them, violently, the next generation abhors revolution enough to not do that.

However, eventually you get an actual success at fixing the underlying problems (often related to elites accumulating too big a percentage of the resources), then the "fathers-and-sons" cycles stop because there's not a big well of repressed anger for counter-elites (Robespierre, Cromwell, Lenin, etc.) to draw on.

So, for each country, it will not always be a two-generation cycle because it depends on whether you have the intra-elite competition, fueled by an ever-increasing concentration of power at the very top, which causes the disaffected masses to have a counter-elite to follow down the path of upheaval.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#106

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

SantalBlush wrote: post #81
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Give the students as many perspectives and hope that they will do something sensible as they process the information I don’t know if you’ve gone to college recently but that was not my impression. It’s a woke monoculture. Discourse is gone.

Discourse is narrower than you'd like; that doesn't mean it's "gone". When someone makes extraordinary claims like "Discourse is gone," that is a red flag that they are not viewing the situation objectively.

Precisely demonstrating my point: a hyper-sensitivity and censorious attitude against any advocacy for unmitigated debate.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#107

Post by zebrafish »

bencollier49 wrote: post #62

This Turchin fellow seems to have missed the boat by about 20 years. The book "Generations: The History of America's Future" by Strauss and Howe was published in 1991 and predicted exactly the same thing. It was a bestseller at the time. It's so well known that it's notable on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio... It predicted a "crisis of 2020" caused by a number of factors inclu…

Also Peter Zeihan forecasted a lot of this based on demographics and finance in his first book.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#108

Post by squidlogic »

SantalBlush wrote: post #81
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Give the students as many perspectives and hope that they will do something sensible as they process the information I don’t know if you’ve gone to college recently but that was not my impression. It’s a woke monoculture. Discourse is gone.

Discourse is narrower than you'd like; that doesn't mean it's "gone". When someone makes extraordinary claims like "Discourse is gone," that is a red flag that they are not viewing the situation objectively.

So perhaps a better claim would be that the new discourse is unduly confined and the older modes of discourse are gone.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#109

Post by Spooky23 »

One of my high school classmates wrote a paper about this that was pretty prescient.

I remember it because I thought is was insane, and then we worked together at a summer gig and talked about it at length - he flipped me. Prediction that were key was a long war in the early 2000s and significant unrest in the 2020-2030 timeline.

His rationale was that the fall of the Soviets would take about 10-15 years to have a real impact on US policy and the 2020-30 timeframe was when the ruined farmers (caused by the policies of the 80s and 90s) passed the torch to the next generation in full and the broader ex-urban economy would be dead beyond redemption.

He was a brilliant kid, who unfortunately passed away too young in an accident.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#110

Post by wilsonfiifi »

InitialLastName wrote: post #94
wilsonfiifi wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's brilliant! I wholeheartedly agree. In case anyone wonders where this saying comes from, my quick search attributes it to Margaret Atwood, from her book "The Testaments" [0]. [0] https://niemanstoryboard.org/stories/as-they-say-history-does-not-repeat-itself-but-it-rhymes/

That quote comes from far before that 2019 book. It showed up as early as the 70s in that form, frequently attributed (without verified evidence) to Mark Twain [0] [0] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

Aha! Thanks for the correction.
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